Nor'easter #3: Right On Time

Someone posed the GSD Staff a very legitimate question earlier today: if we took the previous two storms out of the equation, what would the numbers look like on the True North Confidence Meter?

What an excellent question. On its own, this storm would be a slam dunk. Guaranteed delays and 90% confidence for a full snow day.

But we know Superintendents are feeling the strain. A snow day tomorrow means several school districts are going into the week of June 25th (Monday). They really don't want to do it, which means the Superintendent part of the equation looms very large.

Here's what we like about this storm: The timing is outstanding. And here's a direct quotation from NWS Albany about the morning commute:

This snowfall will make for a slow and slippery commute on Tuesday
morning, which is unfortunately when snowfall rates (one half to
three-quarters of an inch per hour) look to be in place across
our area.

That's moderate snow at the time buses are rolling. That's reason #1 why we think everyone will at least have a delay tomorrow.

And here's the latest snowfall prediction map from our friends at NWS Albany:

These maps have consistently shown between 7 and 11 inches of snow for the last three days. Earlier this morning this map showed a 7-inch storm for the Berkshires; we like the upward trend of this most recent version. If this map proves to be true, nearly everyone will be enjoying the day off from school.

Other than the Superintendent factor, the only other piece of information that's scary about this storm is that the cut off on the western edge will be severe. This means that Springfield could get a foot and the Berkshires could get 2-3 inches. Or, the Berkshires could get a foot, and Albany will see only a few inches. Forecasters we respect think that enough moisture will push far enough west for moderate to heavy snow in the Berkshires, but just how far west that western edge is is a concern.

Last Wednesday night we had a late night freakout about the western edge of the storm; we thought the storm was going to come to a rapid close and rob of us our Thursday snow day. That proved to be unfounded. But because this storm is slightly further to the east, there is a chance we could be left out of the major swath of snow.

Officially, we think that it will be the rare school that does not call in at least a delay for tomorrow. In fact, 144 schools in Massachusetts have already called off school for tomorrow (as of 5: 30 PM). Best bets for snow days in the Berkshires are for North County schools as well as Hancock, Central Berkshire, Savoy, and Farmington River.

Under most circumstances, we would see Superintendents call in their decision tonight on a storm of this magnitude, but their reluctance to grant another snow day means most of us will have to wait until tomorrow morning to find out.

The running list will begin later tonight or bright and early tomorrow morning.