Biggest Storm of the Season?

This is the time of year where only two people are rooting for a snow day: high school seniors and our most devout Followers of the Flake.

Make no mistake, this storm has all the pieces to be a big one. Enough cold air is in place. A north system and southern system will combine energies and reform off the coast as a noreaster. The snow will fall for at close to 18 hours. And as of this afternoon (Monday), the models--the North American and the European--are in closer agreement than usual. Accordingly, the Winter Storm Watch is now calling for the potential for 10-to-18 inches of snow.

And here's the latest forecast map from NWS Albany:

That's no small snowstorm.

And here is where GSD tells you to settle down for at least 12 more hours. There are two things we don't like about the storm. One is the late timing. The snow should arrive around 9 AM on Wednesday, but the heaviest snow will fall Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The other thing we don't like is the general accurate-inaccurate-accurate trend of the models. We've written about this phenomenon before. A week in advance, the models are onto a storm. Three-to-four days out the models lose their bearings, but then with 36 hours to go before the onset, they come back to the original forecast. Our friend Bernie Rayno at Accuweather calls this the windshield wiper effect. This time, though, we might be in for the less common reverse windshield wiper effect as we go from "okay forecast" to "great forecast" and back to "okay forecast" again. We might be overthinking this entirely, but our guard is up for a little bit of a letdown in the next 12 hours.

But even with a letdown, we could see 6-8 inches of snow, if we have faith in the map above.

So here's our first prediction as of Monday afternoon, and it's probably on the conservative side: widespread early releases on Wednesday with almost as many two-hour delays on Thursday. Superintendents are desperate to salvage school days, the late timing of this storm might just present them that opportunity. A jig or jag from the storm in either direction, though, could foul up those plans.

We'll almost assuredly see the upgrade to the Warning in the next 12 hours, and we'll update you early tomorrow morning regardless of any developments.