Nor'easter In Development (Nov. 12-14)

It's looking more and more likely that many residents of Berkshire County will see the first flakes--and the first accumulating snow--of the season this weekend.

What are the models saying? (Just a refresher: we mostly look at the European model (ECMWF) and the North American model (GFS) and compare the two.) As of today (Tuesday AM), they are moving closer together in their snow estimations. See below:

The Euro prediction for Saturday morning.

The North American model (same time frame).

The North American is just a little high on its own supply and is overcooking the snow totals that we'll see for this storm. Even the Euro seems high given how warm the run-up to the storm will be. In terms of accumulating snow, we'll likely see a coating on grassy surfaces with possibly and inch or two in higher elevation towns (1200' feet and higher). Expect to see snow flakes in the air later in the day on Friday and into Saturday morning.

As this snow--should it fall--will arrive in the afternoon on Friday, we do not expect any alteration to the length of the school day.

More on this developing storm in the next few days.

Snow Lovers Rejoice, It's Officially Greylock Snow Day Season

Welcome back all ye Followers of the Flake. It's November, snow flake icons are starting to show up in the weather apps and maps, and frost is appearing on windshields in the mornings, so it's high time the GSD Staff get their tail feathers back in their seats in front of all their glorious snow prognostication tools.

We're excited to be back and we are even more excited that you are back to check in about the latest chances for a snow day. Also, we need all those good snow day vibes that you send out. Trust us when we say that we can feel them.

NOAA November-February Outlook

Unfortunately, the long-range forecasts suggest that we are going to need a lot of positive snow day thinking because this winter might come up a little short compared to typical winters. The simplest explanation is that the temperature from November through February is supposed to be warmer than normal and precipitation will be leaning slightly above normal. What this likely means is more frequent storms but those frustrating ones that start as snow then quickly transition to sleet then all rain.

We will be under the spell of a strong el nino this winter. This means the jet stream pushes farther south. We typically see less snow in these strong el nino years because storms often show promise and then leak out to sea near the mid-Atlantic states. The only benefit of more moisture to our south is that the occasional nor'easter will pop up in these conditions. We could see fewer Alberta clippers and nuisance snow but two or three big storms this season.

NOAA November-February Outlook

Another word you'll be hearing a lot this year is "elevation." Elevation will be a big factor in all those storms that start out as snow and then shift to ice and then rain. Higher elevation towns will hold onto the cold air longer and thus get more snow and more snow days. This will make snow day predictions for the entire county more challenging, but the staff will certainly be up for the task.