Ice Alert for Wednesday Morning (March 28)

There's no need to rush to the store for extra milk and bread, but you should be aware of the chance for freezing rain and sleet in the Berkshires after midnight.

Precipitation will move in around 3 AM. It will be very light, but the ground might be cold enough to cause some icing.

We do not think school districts will need delays, but the possibility exists.

Light Snow Tonight

The radar sure makes it look like it's going to snow heavily tonight, but the image is deceptive. The snow is having trouble reaching the ground due to the cold air that's in place.

It's snowing in South County, but it's very light. It will slowly and steadily build up over the evening hours and leave 2-3 inches on the ground by daybreak. That is enough for some schools to call in delays. It's possible Southern Berkshire, Berkshire Hills, Richmond, and Farmington River will have delays tomorrow, but we do not think the delay a likely scenario. Full snow days are out of the question.

We're not going to get much of a break from the cold after the storm passes through. Around 40 degrees during the day and into the low 20s at night for the next four days. That's definitely below normal for this time of year.

Check in tomorrow morning to see if there are indeed a few delays.

Downgrade

NWS Albany has downgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for southern Berkshire County. Sadly, it looks like this midweek storm is going to track to our south. Connecticut and portions of southeastern Mass will be the big winners, as well as NYC and Long Island.

This turn in the forecast doesn't mean we'll get shut out. We will see several hours of snow in the afternoon Wednesday, making tomorrow evening's ride home dicey. If we end up only getting 2-3" of snow, roads will likely just be wet and not snow-covered tomorrow afternoon and evening.

We're still monitoring this storm, but the reduced snow expectations and general poor timing of the storm mean we are unlikely to see a shortening of the school day either on Wednesday or on Thursday.

And our hopes for nor'easter #5 on Sunday night have taken a hit as that storm is also expected to track out to sea. With temperatures up into the mid-40s by the middle of next week, we may be seeing the end of winter.

If this is the last snow of the season, kick back tomorrow and enjoy it.

Winter Storm Watch (Still) For South County

Portions of eastern Mass will tack on another 12" to their growing March snow total, but it looks like most of Berkshire County will be spared a direct hit.

Forecasters are expecting a very clear cut-off line for significant snow totals and insignificant snow totals. Right now that cut-off line looks to be Great Barrington. We could see 6-8 inches along the Connecticut border and only 1-2" north of Pittsfield. But some weather experts have noted that the model runs are still showing significant variance, so that snow line could move in either direction very easily.

Eh. We've seen better. (Thanks, Channel 6, Albany, for the map.)

So, when is it going to start snowing? Because we really don't know how much snow we're going to get, it's hard to say. We think the first flakes will fall in South County between 9 AM and noon. It's certainly possible, though, that this time window is off by 90 minutes (earlier).

Southern Berkshire, Berkshire Hills, Farmington River and Richmond all have an outside chance for early releases tomorrow. The rest of Berkshire County schools have a chance for delays on Thursday, with better chances south than north.

We'll keep you abreast of any big changes to the storm track as more information rolls in throughout the afternoon.

Despite what the calendar says, it's still winter. Deal with it.

Winter Storm Watch: Southern Berkshire County

The Winter Storm Watch flag is waving over South County this morning. The expectation is for 3-7" inches beginning around 3 AM and lasting until Thursday morning. This storm will be a slow mover.

For the rest of the Berkshires, expect around 3" with maybe just an inch in towns on the Vermont border.

The models are still all over the place with this storm, which makes this storm different from the previous three storms. The heavy snow line could easily move north or south as we learn more about the expected path of the storm.

More details later today about how this storm could impact the length of the school day Wednesday and Thursday.

Increasing Chance for Snow Wednesday

If you want more snow and snow days, keep reading. If your patience is being tested by this very Decembery March, then go forward at your own risk.

Ah, the models. It would be nice if they made up their minds. As of this evening (Monday), the models are showing a more northerly track to the storm. As a result, we have a much better chance of seeing measurable snow on Wednesday.

Expected snowfall totals for Wednesday.

If this storm really ramps up, this is what we'll see. In this case, snow days are possible for Thursday.

NWS Albany is showing a 3-4" snowfall for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Our friends to the east in Hampshire County and to our south in the Nutmeg State have Winter Storm Watches in effect. The potential certainly exists for the Watch area to extend to the Berkshires if forecasters think heavier snow bands will push further north.

Because the temps will remain very close to freezing throughout the day on Wednesday, we should see a period of snow in the afternoon that only sticks on the existing snow, not on the streets. Then, once the temp falls below freezing in the evening, the roads will become slick.

If we get three inches or if we get six inches, we think that road crews will have ample time to clean the streets. Some delays are possible on Thursday, but most students will have a full day of school. That's what we're saying now. Also, we won't be at all surprised if snow totals get bumped up in the next 18 hours or so.

Once we get by this mess, we're presently assessing the possibility of nor'easter #5 for Sunday night into Monday. This storm initially looks more potent than Wednesday's storm.

Good times!

Two (Minor) Storm Threats

As of now, it looks like we might be spared nor'easter #4.

We have two threats this week. The first threat is Monday night into Tuesday, and the models appear to be in agreement that this storm will slide out to sea to our south.

The next potential storm would impact us on Wednesday and possibly impact the school day on Thursday. This storm also appears to be too far to the east to give us snow, but there is a better chance that this storm track changes and brings snow to New England. Even if this storm does come closer to the coast, it might be more of a Maine storm than a Western New England one.

We'll have to see if this area of precipitation grows and moves into New England for Wednesday night/Thursday. We'll know in a day or two.

The reason for these dual storm threats are pieces of energy in the midwest that are trying to feed off of and cooperate with low pressure systems in the south. The last three storms saw good low pressure coordination, which led to blockbuster snow totals.

This week's scenarios just seem too messy for there to be an opportunity for a low pressure system to deepen and grow in intensity. What we want to see is one strong piece of energy from the midwest, but we're seeing the energy diffused among several weaker pieces.

We're definitely keeping an eye on these two storms, especially the Wednesday/Thursday one. The spring high school sports season begins on Monday (which is hard to believe), and we know that coaches will be pleased to see this adjustment to the forecast. However, we caution them not to get too comfortable just yet.

Delays for Thursday, March 15

It's still snowing; the wind is howling; roads are snow-covered; districts are going with delays this morning.

Here's our list:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Christian
Central Berkshire
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Housatonic Academy
Pittsfield
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union

Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

In a surprising development, NWS Albany has announced a Winter Storm Warning for tonight for the Berkshires.

Apparently, the snow will persist and intensify for portions of the evening and early hours of Thursday. The forecast is for 3 to 6 inches of additional snow, with some locations getting 8 inches.

The 7:30 PM radar. Forecasters are concerned about the snow line to our north and west.

If we survived today without too much fuss, then we should be able to survive tomorrow. With the temperature dropping a few degrees in the next few hours, the snow will stick to the roads better, making for slicker conditions.

We really don't think this announcement will amount to that much, snow and road crews should have ample time to deal with it. We'll bump up the Confidence Meter slightly (for delays only), but most students shouldn't be impacted tomorrow.

Best chances for delays will be in high elevation towns and in South County.

We'll run a list in the morning should any schools call in.

Snow Continues: Nor'easter #4 on the Horizon

While the center of the storm swirls over in Nova Scotia, it continues to produce bands of snow from north to south over the Berkshires. The radar shows a lot of moisture still in the atmosphere, so we could definitely pick up a few more inches this evening and in the overnight hours.

Eventually, the snow will taper toward daybreak tomorrow, which means delays are possible but not likely for tomorrow morning.

Many people commented on the fact that the roads were worse today than yesterday. Yes, they were, but main roads were passable as long as people showed some caution. Superintendents may be slightly more attentive tomorrow morning because of complaints about today.

And now this news, which just might put some people over the edge...

We thought storm #3 would bring an end to the storm pattern--usually storms come in waves of three--but storm #4 is right around the corner.

Typically, we do not put too much stock in these types of graphics, but this one from Accuweather (for Williamstown) has raised the GSD Staff's eyebrows.

We're also beginning to see northeast media reporting on the potential for this storm. We're too far out to give any particulars, but you may need to keep the high snow boots handy.

Winter 2017-18--the gift that keeps on giving.

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday, March 14

The storm continues, in a way. Wraparound snow will impact Berkshire County throughout the day today. An Advisory has been announced that lasts until 8 PM this evening. We think the bulk of the accumulating snow will wrap up by early afternoon.

Two to five inches is possible today but we should be on the low side of that range. Some of you will see rougher driver conditions this morning than you did yesterday morning, which is cruelly humorous, as we have no delays in Berkshire County today. Southwestern Vermont Supervisory Union does have a one-hour delay.

March 13 Storm Update

Well, that certainly did not go as planned. The expected 8-10 inches of snow was about half of that, as the bulk of the heavy snow fell in the Connecticut River valley and over in southeast Mass and northeast Connecticut.

The big snow band didn't miss us by much, and it really never came down hard enough for the roads to become too treacherous. Some schools did roll the dice and go with the full day--Pittsfield, Lenox, and Lee among a few others--and their decision proved to work out very well...for administrators.

It's hard to fault Superintendents who called the day off--the forecast was terrible and the radar did appear to support periods of heavy snow throughout the day.

And we're not entirely out of the woods just yet. We're seeing wrap-around snow now and the Berkshires could pick up another 2-3 inches tonight. There is concern that the roads might slick up more as the temps drop below freezing. As a result, delays tomorrow morning are possible but not that likely.

At this point we do not see any more storms in our near future. The most noteworthy aspect of the forecast? It will be very cold on Monday with the high around 25 degrees. That's very cold for this time of year.

Cancellations and Delays: Tuesday, March 13

Very light snow is falling at the GSD Home Office and roads wet but not snow-covered. That will change as impressive bands of moderate and heavy snow are off to our south and southeast and making their way toward Berkshire County. There have been no changes to the Winter Storm Warning.

School districts are calling in snow days. So far, almost 300 schools in the Commonwealth have canceled school for today. That's an impressive tally.

Here's the list, which we will update as the decisions come in:

SNOW DAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BArT
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Waldorf
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Lanesborough
Mohawk
Mount Greylock
North Adams
Northern Berkshire Vocational
Readsboro VT
Richmond
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford VT
Williamstown

EARLY RELEASE:

Hoosick Falls NY

Nor'easter #3: Right On Time

Someone posed the GSD Staff a very legitimate question earlier today: if we took the previous two storms out of the equation, what would the numbers look like on the True North Confidence Meter?

What an excellent question. On its own, this storm would be a slam dunk. Guaranteed delays and 90% confidence for a full snow day.

But we know Superintendents are feeling the strain. A snow day tomorrow means several school districts are going into the week of June 25th (Monday). They really don't want to do it, which means the Superintendent part of the equation looms very large.

Here's what we like about this storm: The timing is outstanding. And here's a direct quotation from NWS Albany about the morning commute:

This snowfall will make for a slow and slippery commute on Tuesday
morning, which is unfortunately when snowfall rates (one half to
three-quarters of an inch per hour) look to be in place across
our area.

That's moderate snow at the time buses are rolling. That's reason #1 why we think everyone will at least have a delay tomorrow.

And here's the latest snowfall prediction map from our friends at NWS Albany:

These maps have consistently shown between 7 and 11 inches of snow for the last three days. Earlier this morning this map showed a 7-inch storm for the Berkshires; we like the upward trend of this most recent version. If this map proves to be true, nearly everyone will be enjoying the day off from school.

Other than the Superintendent factor, the only other piece of information that's scary about this storm is that the cut off on the western edge will be severe. This means that Springfield could get a foot and the Berkshires could get 2-3 inches. Or, the Berkshires could get a foot, and Albany will see only a few inches. Forecasters we respect think that enough moisture will push far enough west for moderate to heavy snow in the Berkshires, but just how far west that western edge is is a concern.

Last Wednesday night we had a late night freakout about the western edge of the storm; we thought the storm was going to come to a rapid close and rob of us our Thursday snow day. That proved to be unfounded. But because this storm is slightly further to the east, there is a chance we could be left out of the major swath of snow.

Officially, we think that it will be the rare school that does not call in at least a delay for tomorrow. In fact, 144 schools in Massachusetts have already called off school for tomorrow (as of 5: 30 PM). Best bets for snow days in the Berkshires are for North County schools as well as Hancock, Central Berkshire, Savoy, and Farmington River.

Under most circumstances, we would see Superintendents call in their decision tonight on a storm of this magnitude, but their reluctance to grant another snow day means most of us will have to wait until tomorrow morning to find out.

The running list will begin later tonight or bright and early tomorrow morning.

Maps!

Here are some midday maps for your perusal. Some of these are overcooked. We're likely to get 6-8 inches of fresh powder when it's all said and done.

Superintendents are really going to be reluctant to call in a snow day tomorrow, but NWS Albany is reporting that the time of the heaviest snow for the Berkshires will be during the morning commute.

The royal blue/pink/red is a lot to process. Great numbers but unsettling visually.

Standard fare from Channel 13. Soothing. Purple works better than royal blue.

Lazy.

It's always nice when Boston acknowledges the existence of Western Massachusetts. This favorable map is from Matt Noyes of New England Cable News. 

Upgrade: Winter Storm Warning

The snow is on its way. We do have a few reservations about this storm, but forecasters are expecting 6-9" for the Berkshires starting around midnight tonight and lasting throughout the day on Tuesday.

The timing could not be any better. If the forecast is off in a negative way, we'll still see 2-3". If it's off in a positive way, we'll see over a foot.

Here's our favorite forecast map:

These totals are not overwhelming, and we expect there will be several more tweaks to the snow maps as forecasters get a better understanding of the track of the storm (as is always the case).

Winter Storm Watch for Monday Night/Tuesday

Here we go again! Meteorologists are seeing model runs that favor more snow for the Berkshires. As a result, they have skipped right over the Winter Weather Advisory and have hoisted (their term) a Winter Storm Watch for all of Berkshire County.

The Watch period begins at 8 PM on Monday and ends at 6 PM on Tuesday. That time slot is very favorable for delays and/or full snow days.

Things are trending in the right direction of you are rooting for a snow day on Tuesday. What to watch for next: the upgrade from the Watch to the Warning. That will be a big determining factor if we are to see snow days on Tuesday.

Looks like 6-8" of snow by the end of the day on Tuesday. Is it enough to cancel school?

Do Not Sleep On Storm #3

A lot of people have had up to here with the March snow storms, and we have three words for those people: shame on you. It's winter! Embrace the joy of scraping your windshields every time you need to use your car. Embrace the thrill of nearly breaking your neck on that hidden ice patch in your driveway. Who doesn't love ten minutes of layering just to go out and get the mail? Come July you are going to miss these unique experiences.

So, for those who hope winter lasts until May this year (and it might), we have good news. Nor'easter number 3 is showing some life. We were very ready to write this one off as one for the fishes, but not so fast, snowhounds. Stop us if you've heard this before: The models show the storm is tracking just a little more westerly and closer to the coast. Two energy systems may merge and intensify off the coast of Long Island. Enough cold air is in place for all snow.

We are not certain that we'll get a foot of snow in the Berkshires, but the potential exists. Here are two maps to illustrate the range of possibility for this storm. Map #1 shows our likely snowfall for Monday night into Tuesday:

Thanks, NWS Albany.

Map #2 shows the high side of expectations; that is, if the storm really hugs the coast:

Who's ready for another foot of snow?

A lot will have to change in a short amout of time for us to get a foot, but the potential is out there. At the very least we're looking at 3-4" new inches of powder. What we really like is the timing of the storm. The snow should start Monday evening and last throughout the day on Tuesday, if it really ramps up. We definitely foresee widespread delays on Tuesday morning.

Expect a Winter Weather Advisory later today, and we can not rule out a Winter Storm Watch or Warning upgrade at some point tomorrow. We'll keep you posted.

Quiet Friday

One school district gets to go down in the Greylock Snow Day Hall of Fame. Congratulations to Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union for pulling off the vaunted Triple Play: early release on Wednesday, snow day on Thursday, and two-hour delay on Friday. Good work!

It's still snowing at the Home Office but no other schools in our area have called in delays. Many, many schools in the eastern part of the Commonwealth have the day off due to widespread power outages and downed trees. It's a mess over there--but we knew that already.

Jackpot

For the most part, this nor'easter exceeded expectations. While some students in South County might not agree, this storm was a beast. The GSD Staff definitely got a little skittish last night, as the storm seemed to be trending in a terrible direction. Fortunately, it held on and snowed through the night.

Check out these images:

Final snow totals from NWS Albany

Courtesy of a Follower of the Flake in North Adams. Monster storm!

And the storm isn't quite over yet. Winds have picked up, and we're starting to see wrap-around snow shower activity. We could get up to an inch tonight. Sadly, we don't think we'll see too many Triple Plays tomorrow morning (delay after the snow day after the early release). If the power goes down tonight in some locations, then you could be in business.

The GSD Staff is going to take a break for a day or so to rest up after the two big storms in a row. That does not mean we've given up on yet another storm for Monday night into Tuesday. If the pieces come together, we will see our third nor'easter in a 12-day period. The Euro model takes the storm out to sea, while the US model (the GFS) brings it closer along the coast. The closer to the coast it comes, the more snow we'll get. We have much less confidence in this storm than the last two, but perhaps Old Man Winter wants to break some records this March.

FYI: Our research shows March 2001 as the snowiest March on record for Pittsfield, coming in at 41.6 inches. Some of us are only inches away from surpassing that total.

Cancellations and Delays: Thursday, March 8

It's still snowing. Wrap-around snows are filtering in from Vermont. We should see the snow continue for Northern Berkshire County for a few more hours and then snow shower activity will be off and on throughout the day.

We're seeing some big numbers for snow totals. Over 2 feet in North Adams, Cheshire, Adams, and Hinsdale.

The decision today about whether or not you get a delay or full snow day will largely depend on how the road crews are making out as well as what bus companies have to say. With the snow still coming down at this hour, we should see a fair number of full snow days.

Here's the list so far. We'll update throughout the morning:

SNOW DAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BArT
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Community College (but evening classes are still on)
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Waldorf
Berlin
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Housatonic Academy
Lanesborough
MCLA
Mount Greylock
New Lebanon
North Adams
Northern Berkshire Vocational
Pittsfield
Readsboro
Richmond
Southern Berkshire
Southern Vermont College
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford
Williamstown

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Montessori
Hoosick Falls
Lee
Lenox
Mohawk
Pine Cobble

Williams College (Admin offices and Children's Center)

March Nor'easter #2: Wednesday Night Report

The snow is coming down heavily--we have 11.5 inches on the ground at the GSD Home Office--and the roads are really rough at this hour (8 PM). Unfortunately, we're not loving the look of the radar at this hour. We still are of the mind that delays will predominate tomorrow morning, but we could see a smattering of schools who go with full snow days.

That dry slot to our west is dangerously close to the Berkshires and is making us nervous about how long the snow will last. But that heavy band just to our east could easily shift over us and dump another 6-8 inches on us throughout the night. The decisions on snow days will be touch and go tomorrow.

Several districts and schools have pre-loaded a delay for tomorrow morning. Here they are:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Central Berkshire
Farmington River
Mohawk Trail
Richmond Consolidated
Williams College (Admin Offices and Children's Center)

We'll definitely be adding to this list tomorrow morning, and some of these schools could be upgraded (especially Central Berkshire). We'll

Storm Update: Concerns About Full Snow Days

The heavy bands of snow have finally arrived. We picked up three inches in the last two hours at the Home Office in Williamstown. The flakes are big and sticky, and roads are now very greasy.

We are starting to have some concerns about full snow days for tomorrow. This storm appears to jogged to the east slightly, and it might end sooner than we would like. The blocked flow that we talked about a few days ago is proving to be elusive and might not set up. The Winter Storm Warning is still in effect through tomorrow night, though we will not be surprised to see the Warning cancelled in the middle of the day tomorow.

Thanks, NWS Albany!

As a result, we are going to drop the percentage for a snow day for Thursday. Two-hour delays are still very likely--in fact, Farmington River School District has already called its one in--but the number of full snow days will be hit or miss. We think there will be a few more than today (only 5 schools/districts opted for no school). A clean sweep for the county is less likely.

Don't get us wrong--this is still going to be a big storm, but we're not expecting too many towns to see 20 inches from it. Most towns should hit double digits for snow totals, and we'll have to wait and see what road crews and bus companies have to say about travel tomorrow.

How Soon Will We Know?

Now that just about all students are back home and safe and sound, the burning question of the day is: how soon will we know if we have a snow day tomorrow?

It's the professional opinion here at the GSD Home Office that you won't have to wait too long.

The center of the storm is just to the east of the Delmarva peninsula, and it is throwing tons of moisture northward. These very heavy bands of moisture will hit the Berkshires, making driving tonight a disaster.

As long as the snow really piles up (12"+), some Superintendents will make the call tonight and cancel classes for the morning. Some of our more optimistic school leaders will hold out until tomorrow morning, especially if they went with the full snow day for today (which was great for those students but not really the right decision, as there is currently a dry slot over the Berkshires as busses are taking students home for their early dismissals).

That wall of water you see down on the Jersey shore will become more and more vertical and then, we hope, sit on top of the Berkshires. That's when we'll see snow rates of 2-3" per hour.

The last run of the models did take our snow totals down a few inches, but we're still in line for 12-15" of snow. That's a lot of snow for road crews to move around, and it will still likely be snowing during the morning commute. Delays are guaranteed; snow days are almost a certainty.

Snow Days and Releases for Wednesday, March 7

Very light snow has started to fall this morning, but roadways are just wet, not snow-covered. It would appear the consensus decision to go with the early release will work out for Superintendents.

The 6 AM radar courtesy of Intellicast. We will see breaks in the snow this morning before the snow ramps up after noon.

There are no changes to the forecast for the storm. Heavy snow will move in later in the afternoon.

Here's the list of early releases and cancellations. Adams-Cheshire and Central Berkshire get the big upgrade.

EARLY RELEASE:

BArT
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Montessori
Farmington River
Hancock
Housatonic Academy
Lanesborough
Lee
Lenox
Mass College of Liberal Arts
Mount Greylock
North Adams
Pine Cobble School
Pittsfield
Richmond
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford VT
Williams College (admin offices & children's center)
Williamstown

SNOW DAY:

Adams-Cheshire
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Waldorf
Central Berkshire
Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott

T-Minus 12 Hours (or so)

We've been all over this storm for several days now, and it actually looks like it will live up to expectations. To recap, expectations are for 12-18 inches of snow for the Berkshires. It should start overnight tonight with some light snow then really get going tomorrow afternoon and evening. After that, bands of snow will lock in over the Berkshires and add another 4-8" throughout the day on Thursday. This last piece--the amount of snow on Thursday--is the only part of the forecast that is a 50/50 proposition.

Here's the current list of releases and snow days. There's an outside chance that some of these releases could get upgraded to full snow days, but we'll have to see what conditions are like in the morning.

EARLY RELEASE:

Adams-Cheshire
BArT
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Montessori
Central Berkshire
Farmington River
Hancock
Housatonic Academy
Lanesborough
Lee
Lenox
Mount Greylock
North Adams
Pine Cobble School
Pittsfield
Richmond
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford VT
Williamstown

SNOW DAY:

Berkshire Christian
Gabriel Abbott

We'll run a new post starting early tomorrow morning to indicate any changes or additions. And now onto the maps:

Enjoy the onslaught! That's a lot of snow.

Releases and Cancellations for Wednesday

Several schools have already made the decision to shorten the school day tomorrow. We approve wholeheartedly. Here's our current list. (For our latest storm info, go here.)

EARLY RELEASE:

Adams-Cheshire
BArT
Berkshire Hills
Central Berkshire
Farmington River
Hancock
Housatonic Academy
Lanesborough
Lenox
Mount Greylock
Pittsfield
Richmond
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford VT
Williamstown

SNOW DAY:

Berkshire Christian

Swinging For The Fences: Old Man Winter Looks To Go Deep

[Did you know we're on Facebook (@GreylockSnowDay), Twitter (@GreylockSnowDa1) and Instagram (greylock_snow_day)? Sometimes we drop knowledge there that you can't find anywhere else.]

The March Marauder is just beginning to come into existence. Out of the Great Lakes it will come and then pick up a big boost from a friendly piece of energy in the South.

Expect to see snow develop from west to east in the early morning hours. The snow will be light at first but should coat the roads for the morning commute. We will see light snow throughout the morning, and then in the afternoon the heavier and more persistent snow will kick in. We could see snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour between the hours of 3 PM and 10 PM. The snow will taper but continue into Thursday, with the blocked flow expected to give us several more inches of snow throughout the day on Thursday. At the end of it all we should see between 12 and 16 inches of snow, with 20" amounts possible in towns with east-facing slopes.

Here are all of the possibilities for the next few days and the odds of each event happening. For the ironic fun of it, we will extend some baseball metaphors. And don't work too hard making the numbers below work with the numbers in the True North Confidence Meter--these are separate entities.

The Grand Slam: Four full snow days, Wednesday through Monday. Yes, Monday. There's another coastal storm in the bullpen for Sunday night into Monday. Odds: 60:1.

The 3-Run Homer: Two snow days plus a delay (Friday) or early release (Wednesday). The two snow days would be either Wednesday/Thursday or Thursday/Friday. It could happen. Odds: 8:1.

The Triple Play: The Holy Trinity of snow day forecasting. Early release Wednesday, full snow day Thursday, and delay on Friday. The odds are low for such a rare event. Odds: 2:1.

Ground Rule Double: Early release Wednesday and full snow day on Thursday. Kind of boring, given the possible volume of this storm, but it puts a runner in scoring position. Odds: 1:5.

Caught Stealing at Third: Just a snow day on Thursday. Robbed of a shortened day on Wednesday; got a little greedy. 5:1.

Going forward for the rest of Tuesday, we will be very interested to see what Superintendents do about tomorrow. That is not an easy call at all so go easy on those poor folks. We could see a few early releases called in tonight, and we will of course get you up to speed as soon as that happens, if it happens.

And more maps to come later. Maps!

Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday and Thursday (March 7-8)

We have been upgraded in a big, big way. A Winter Storm Warning has been announced, calling for 13 to 17 inches of snow with some hilltowns approaching 2 feet of snow. The front end timing is still the same--7 AM Wednesday--but the back end has been extended to 7 PM on Thursday.

Courtesy of WRGB, Albany.

This means that the chance for a Wednesday release and Thursday snow day is extremely high. The chance for two snow days in a row is a possibility for many school districts.

The reason for the extended time on the storm is something called a "blocked flow." This means a band of snow will set up north to south over the Berkshires and essentially stall out. In years past we've seen up to a foot of snow from a blocked flow. This is why some communities could be digging out from two feet of snow and may need a delay on Friday to allow extra time.

Wow.

Biggest Storm of the Season?

This is the time of year where only two people are rooting for a snow day: high school seniors and our most devout Followers of the Flake.

Make no mistake, this storm has all the pieces to be a big one. Enough cold air is in place. A north system and southern system will combine energies and reform off the coast as a noreaster. The snow will fall for at close to 18 hours. And as of this afternoon (Monday), the models--the North American and the European--are in closer agreement than usual. Accordingly, the Winter Storm Watch is now calling for the potential for 10-to-18 inches of snow.

And here's the latest forecast map from NWS Albany:

That's no small snowstorm.

And here is where GSD tells you to settle down for at least 12 more hours. There are two things we don't like about the storm. One is the late timing. The snow should arrive around 9 AM on Wednesday, but the heaviest snow will fall Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The other thing we don't like is the general accurate-inaccurate-accurate trend of the models. We've written about this phenomenon before. A week in advance, the models are onto a storm. Three-to-four days out the models lose their bearings, but then with 36 hours to go before the onset, they come back to the original forecast. Our friend Bernie Rayno at Accuweather calls this the windshield wiper effect. This time, though, we might be in for the less common reverse windshield wiper effect as we go from "okay forecast" to "great forecast" and back to "okay forecast" again. We might be overthinking this entirely, but our guard is up for a little bit of a letdown in the next 12 hours.

But even with a letdown, we could see 6-8 inches of snow, if we have faith in the map above.

So here's our first prediction as of Monday afternoon, and it's probably on the conservative side: widespread early releases on Wednesday with almost as many two-hour delays on Thursday. Superintendents are desperate to salvage school days, the late timing of this storm might just present them that opportunity. A jig or jag from the storm in either direction, though, could foul up those plans.

We'll almost assuredly see the upgrade to the Warning in the next 12 hours, and we'll update you early tomorrow morning regardless of any developments.

Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday/Thursday (March 7/8)

The Winter Storm Watch is up already. The Watch starts at 7 AM Wednesday and ends at 7 AM Thursday.

The prediction is for 5-10 inches of snow for the Berkshires, with locally higher amounts in the higher elevation towns again. This storm is very similar to the Friday storm except the snow will be slightly less wet, but it won't quite be as powerful. There is significant bust potential with this storm, however, as the models do not yet agree on the track of it.

The GSD Staff is currently thinking that the release-delay double is the most likely scenario for students of the Berkshires because the heaviest snow will be Wednesday midday through the early morning hours of Thursday.

We've gotten a lot of mileage out of these maps this year. Thanks, NWS Albany!

Much more to follow on this developing situation.

Midweek Storm Potential

Winter is still very much a presence we will contend with this upcoming week. A storm with many of the same attributes as our most recent storm is set to impact the Berkshires on Wednesday. The window the GSD Staff is looking at is from late morning Wednesday to the early morning hours of Thursday.

Even though this most recent storm did not quite deliver the 8-10 inches forecasters were expecting for most of us--Florida Mountain did get a foot--it was still a very potent storm and wreaked havoc in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. The highest snow total near us was Grafton, NY at 20" and towns just to our southeast picked up three feet of snow.

While we do not think Wednesday's storm will set any records, it still is expected to be a moderate to heavy storm. Predictably, there is no model consensus on this storm yet, but there is colder air in place this time around so the nailbiting about snow/rain/mixed precipitation will not occur on Tuesday night.

Because the heaviest snow is expected to fall in the afternoon on Wednesday, we think there will be releases on Wednesday or full school days. Whenever there is a storm just on the heels of full snow days, Superintendents are more willing to risk it and get kids in schools for at least part of the day. So, as long as the timing of this storm does not shift too radically, we should see releases for Wednesday.

If the storm is later than we think, then delays and snow days are in play for Thursday.

We're in a turbulent pattern right now. Enjoy it because it will not last for more than a few weeks.

Cancellations and Releases: Friday, March 2

In like a lion, out like a lamb.

The storm is behaving as most models expected. Enough cold air is in place for a mostly snow event. We're seeing all forms of precipitation in the Berkshires right now, but the changeover to snow will be rapid (if it hasn't already happened in your parts) and a huge wall of moisture is sitting out over the Atlantic and is slowly advancing toward the Berkshires. Most locations should get over half a foot of snow today.

School decisions are coming in. Here they are:

SNOW DAY

Mass College of Liberal Arts
Berkshire Community College
Southern Vermont College
Pittsfield
Lee
Berkshire Hills
Southern Berkshire
Adams-Cheshire
Lenox
Central Berkshire
North Adams
Mount Greylock Regional
Northern Berkshire Voc
BArT
Berkshire Waldorf
Richmond
Pine Cobble
Housatonic Academy
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Clarksburg
Hancock
Emma Miller
Williamstown
Lanesborough
Farmington River Regional
Gabriel Abbott
Southwest Vermont SU
Hoosick Falls NY
New Lebanon NY
Berlin NY
Mohawk Trail


As of 4 AM, the latest NWS snow total projection map:

Check out the totals near Hunter Mountain in NY. Wowzer!

Final Friday Storm Update: Thursday Late Edition

The info is in and nothing really has changed in the last twelve hours. The Warning is in place; precipitation will start to come down around 2 AM; and we all wait with bated breath for that moment when the rain shifts over to snow.

Here's NWS Albany's latest snow forecast map:

We expect the snow to start between 7 and 11 AM tomorrow. We wish we could be more definite about the start of the snow, but that just isn't going to happen for this early March mega-storm.

As we stated early, we'll see a variety of decisions by Superintendents. The more cautious will opt for snow days and releases; the bolder ones will try to push through and get in a full day. We think the prudent decision would be to go with the early release if it is raining at 6 AM.

The 10:15 radar; precipitation is on the doorstep.

We do not have any early decisions for the Berkshires from Superintendents this evening, but plenty have been called in to our west.

We are not adjusting the True North Confidence meter at this time due to the uncertainty about the timing of the conversion to snow.

We'll post a running list of cancellations and releases as they come in tomorrow morning.

Friday Storm: Thursday Evening Early Report

We've been upgraded. The Winter Storm Watch is now a Winter Storm Warning, which means forecasters are even more certain the Berkshires will be blanketed with snow. Get out the high snow boots.

The NWS forecast is now for 5 to 10 inches of snow for the Berkshires. The wind is expected to gust well over 40 MPH. The duration of the storm has not changed--it's still on from midnight tonight to 3 AM on Saturday. We are encouraged by this development, but it's still going to come down to the timing of the start of the snow, which is very much a mystery, even this late in the game.

Here are the likely scenarios:

1. Superintendents roll the dice and hope the snow holds off until the afternoon. Full school day.
2. It looks like the ride home from school will be rough. Early release.
3. It's snowing at 5 AM--full snow day.

This will be a very hard decision for Superintendents, and we expect we'll see quite a range of decisions in the morning. Because of all the uncertainty around this storm, we probably won't see too many decisions called tonight. But we've been very wrong about this part of the prediction game before. We still think that early releases will be likely for most schools, and a few schools will get the full snow day. But we won't be surprised at all if two or three unlucky schools have a full day of school.

We'll have one more post tonight to see if we provide any more insight about what will happen tomorrow morning.

Winter Storm Friday: Thursday Midday Edition

Meteorological information is pouring into the GSD Home Office. The Staff is very busy trying to make sense of it all, and the range of snow predictions for tomorrow is bordering on ludicrous. One model run (one of the NAMs) has us getting close to 3' of snow. Other forecasters are saying we're still in the 2-5" zone.

But based on all of our information-gathering so far, we're starting to hear much more chatter about and 8-12 inch dumping for the Berkshires. As we've stated before, the big issue will be the timing of the start of the snow.

Here's a map of interest:

We can't always trust these Boston guys to get the weather right for the Berkshires, but this is a map we support.

There are another few model runs expected later today, and we'll deliver the most pertinent information from those runs later today. Stay tuned!

Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires

The Friday storm continues to get more complicated for the Berkshires. NWS Albany has announced a Winter Storm Watch for all of Berkshire County beginning at midnight tonight (Thursday) and ending at 3 AM on Saturday.

Expectations are for 4-8" of snow with some locales (higher elevation towns) hitting double digits.

Uncertainty is the buzzword for this storm. To wit, two maps:

The low end potential.

The high end potential.

This storm has enormous bust potential due to the mild air and its multiple moving parts. It also has a high upside and could move into blockbuster territory. And that's what makes the weather business so exciting.

We'll monitor developments throughout the day, but we do think the early release is becoming more of a reality. One complicating factor tomorrow will be the wind. We're expecting gusts to approach 50 MPH in some places on Friday, which will make visibility very low if and when it's snowing.