High Winds & Dropping Temperature

We hope everyone who was off last week had a restful and rejuvenating week.

The weather has turned downright spring-like, but we are in for a big change in the next 48 hours. Temps will still be unseasonably warm on Wednesday despite rain moving into our area this evening. Rain will come down heavy at times, but the big newsmaker for this storm will be the wind. We have a High Wind Watch in effect with gusts expected to get into the 50 MPH range.

It's possible that we could see delays on Thursday due to power outages and/or slick roads. As the rain comes to end Wednesday night, temps will plummet and we could see a brief period of snow. The temperature will drop over 30 degrees in 12 hours. At the time of the morning commute, temps will be in the low 20s and the wind will be howling.

Click bait alert, as this map is misleading. This is the "high end" potential for snow (1 in 10 chance) according to NWS Albany. If this happens, delays are definite and some schools would go with snow days.

Our infrastructure is fairly sturdy in this part of the country, so delays due to power outages are not likely but possible. And a few cautious Superintendents may decide to delay the start of school if snow, black ice and/or icy roads due to a flash freeze become an issue.

With temps back up into the 40s on Friday (and higher for the weekend), we do not currently see any chances for snow days. But there's still some winter left and we're not closing shop any time soon.

Delays and Closings for Friday, February 16

Lake effect snow is moving through the county at the moment. It should taper off soon, as will the wind, which is very srong this morning.

We do have a few closings to report. 

CLOSED (last updated at 6:06 AM):

BART

Emma Miller

Friday Delays Possible for North County

Winter is in its stretch drive, which means we do not have too many more cracks at delays, snow days, and releases.

But Friday presents a slim opportunity for two-hour delays for some districts in northern Berkshire County. The Alberta Clipper is on our doorstep--snow should start/have started by 6 PM--and it is expect to drop a max of 5 inches of snow.

NWS Albany forecast.

The higher elevations will get the higher amounts of snow. Clarksburg, Florida, Savoy, New Ashford, Lanesboro all appear to be in line for 3-4 inches with only 1-2 inches in other southern locations. Unfortunately, it looks as if the snow will end between 3 and 4 AM, which should give road crews the chance to clear roads in time for the early bus runs.

We wish these end times were later.

Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, North Adams, Hancock, and the mountain elementary schools have a higher chance. Pittsfield, Central Berkshires, and Richmond could also eke out a delay. But it is more likely that all these students will have a full day of school rather than a delay. As we stated yesterday, the high winds associated with this storm will produce significant blowing and drifting of snow, which could prolong the clean-up time and raise chances for delays.

We do have one Friday cancellation to report: BART will be closed tomorrow.

We'll run a list bright and early tomorrow if any Superintendents decide to go with a delayed opening.

Alberta Clipper = Friday Delays?

We apologize for not posting immediately after the big bust of 2024 on Tuesday. What a massive letdown. It's rare to see the models so wildly misleading just 24 hours before the storm is supposed to hit. It definitely shakes our faith in the models. At least temporarily.

We know you will be skeptical given the Tuesday debacle, but it seems a few North County schools could have a delay on Friday. An Alberta Clipper is moving in from the northwest Thursday night and will leave a few inches of snow on the ground. There are many questions with this minor snow event: Will the snow last until the morning commute on Friday? Will road crews have enough time to clear the roads? Will Superintendents throw students a bone the day before vacation?

NWS Albany

The meteorological prediction is for snow to start around 6 PM (Thurs.) and end around 7 AM on Friday. North County could see 2-3 inches with more in the higher terrains (northeast mountain towns, especially). Farther south we'll see 1-2 inches.

Despite the performance of the models regarding the nor'easter early in the week, Alberta Clippers have less variability and are easier to predict. For example, according to NWS Albany, the high-end and low-end predictions for this storm are 3-4" on the high end and 1-2" inches on the low end. That's not that much different from what is currently being predicted.

A sneaky X-factor "exclusive" that you'll only find at GSD: High winds are expected with this clipper. That means more blowing snow, which will give the perception that it's snowing harder than it actually is. The blowing snow could tip the decision and give some students delays.

So, the districts that were supposed to be the big losers on Tuesday could be the winners on Friday. Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, and the mountain elementary schools as well as Stamford and Mount Anthony in Vermont could see delays. Down county we see diminishing chances for Pittsfield and Central Berkshires with even more remote chances for delays for Lenox, Lee, Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills.

This week's disappointing snow news is definitely lessened by the welcome week of vacation public schools have coming up. We'll take a few days off ourselves, but if any storms kicks up that could impact travel during the week, we'll share our thoughts.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: From Bad To Worse

This storm is now more likely to be a bust than one that affects the length of the school day. Even for South County the forecast is growing grimmer by the hour.

One thing we hear meteorologists talk about is that often the long term models can be way off, and the short term models tend to be accurate. Well, the short term models are showing a decreasing amount of snow for everyone.

So, unfortunately, we're going to scale back expectations yet again. We now think it's 35/65 in South County, limited in the central districts, and almost no chance in the northern districts. 

This is one of those short term model projections. This scenario would qualify as a "major bust."

With the start of the storm not expected until 6 or even 7 AM, Superintendents are going to have a hard time making the snow day call based on already dwindling snow projection numbers. We think Superintendents are, in fact, willing participants--given how few snow days they've called--but the facts are not going to lie: there just won't be enough justification for a full day off.

This does not mean the morning commute is going to be great. Snow should have started by the high school bus runs, especially south. Travel will be slow by the time the elementary school students need to report. Delays are possible but less likely because it will still be snowing at the later start time.

Do your favorite snow dance and pray to the Snow Gods, but do not be surprised if you have a full day of school tomorrow.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Bad News for North County

The Winter Storm Warning is still in effect for South County, and the Watch is still hanging on for dear life in North County, but this storm is definitely headed south literally and metaphorically.

Many professional weather folks were surprised to see the modeling of the storm change so rapidly early this morning. What looked like a sure-fire 6" storm for all of the County suddenly turned into a partial bust. 

The American model for tomorrow. Not great!

Boston and Springfield have already cancelled classes for tomorrow, but we think most Berkshire County Superintendents will wait it out until tomorrow to see if and when the snow starts to fall.

Despite the discouraging runs of the models this morning, South County schools should still be in line for full snow days. We're seeing many maps of a projected 3-6 inches. And the timing is perfect so Berkshire Hills, Southern Berkshire, Richmond, and even Lenox and Lee should be enjoying a day off.

Given the timing and how messy the morning commute could be, we won't be surprised to see Pittsfield and Central Berkshire get the day off as well but it's in no way a certainty. We've had snow days with only 2-3" of snow this year, so odds are 50/50 for the middle of the county.

Mount Greylock, North Adams, and Hoosac Valley could very well be the big losers. There's going to a sharp cut-off with the snow line. Some maps are showing 1-3 inches in the northwest corner, and others are even showing no snow for Williamstown and North Adams. That's a cruel twist in this relatively snow-less winter.

Simply put: the farther south and east you go, the better chance for a snow day. The farther north and west you go, the lesser chance for a snow day.

Next update: Monday, late afternoon.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Snow Days Likely

Good morning, Flake Followers!

It is certainly looking more and more likely that students in the area will be enjoying a snow day on Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch was expanded to Northern Berkshire as well as Southern Vermont, which means the expected track of the storm is more northerly. And remember, as the wise old staffers at GSD say, "the norther the better"™.

The things working in our favor:

*Enough cold air in place.
*Spectacularly perfect timing--snow starting around 3:00 AM and heavy snow expected throughout the morning on Tuesday.
*A high level of liquid is associated with this storm. More liquid = more snow.

What we don't like:

*It's a fast mover--probably no more than 12 hours of snow fall.
*There could be a significant cut-off line for the northern edge of the storm. The northwest corner of the Berkshires might only see 3-5 inches. The only school districts that could be affected by this cut-off would be Mount Anthony and Mount Greylock. Everyone else should be fine.

Widespread snow days are likely due to the anticipated heavy snow during the morning commute and the relatively high snow totals. And we definitely think some Superintendents will call this one on Monday night.

Here's our favorite map so far:

NWS Albany -- high end forecast.

We're not sure how this much snow is going to fall from a storm that is supposed to move through this fast, but we like it! In no way does the GSD Staff think that this amount of snow will fall, but it's nice knowing it's in the realm of possibility.

Here are some realistic maps:

Meteorologist Dave Epstein.

NWS Burlington

The next time you'll hear from us Monday. We'll have (hopefully) more refined information, more maps, and hopefully a few closings to report.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Details Coming Into Focus

A quick hitter between sessions at the Western Mass agricultural conference in Amherst:

*This will be a nor'easter of the Miller Type B variety (Ohio valley to coastal low pressure system development).

*Models are more in agreement and they are sending strong signals. The Euro has 9-12" for Berkshire County, while the American is slightly under that, showing 7-10" south to north. 

*The timing is "mwah!" (chef's kiss).

*Winter Weather Advisories and/or Winter Storm Watches could be posted as early as today.

Here are some maps:

American

European

The position of the center of this low pressure system is ideal.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Encouraging News

The buzz for Tuesday is beginning to get louder, and the forecast models continue to evolve in a more positive direction. There's still a lot of uncertainty but today things are looking better.

We've seen a slight change in the models today. We're seeing more agreement between the European and the American, and the snow totals are significantly higher. You would think that the GSD Staff would be over-the-moon excited about this development but two key pieces of information are holding us back: 1) it's going to be very warm in the days leading up to the storm; 2) we're still over 80 hours away from the onset of the storm so things can literally go south. 

The American Model. Snow totals by Tuesday evening.

The Euro. Same time frame. Not so bad!

Please don't misunderstand us--we are definitely encouraged by today's developments. Snow days are certainly possible for Tuesday--but we're just not ready to ramp the Confidence Meter up to 90% at the moment.

One of our trusted weather gurus is Bernie Rayno of Accuweather, and we really like what he's saying about this storm. He has noted the trends and thinks the storm track will continue to move slightly more north over the next few days. For us, the norther the better!

Bernie Rayno's map (created today--Friday).

The GSD Staff has a busy weekend with yet another agricultural conference (in western Mass this weekend), so our windows for posting are limited. We are hoping to get an update out midday tomorrow, but it may be a short one. At the latest we'll update Sunday morning with more comprehensive information about the possible snow day for Tuesday.

February 13 Storm: Keeping Hope Alive

We hope you have enjoyed this week of sun and milder temps during the day. But that's not why you're here, so we are going to get right to it regarding next week's storm.

Simply put, there's some hope for a storm on Tuesday. The National Weather Services in both Boston and Albany have mentioned a coastal storm in their longer range forecasts. There are signals for a significant coastal storm developing late Monday into Tuesday, but the track of the storm is anything but certain at the moment. 

As far as the models go, they are all over the place. Last weekend they were both showing plowable snow for our area. Then, early this week, they showed little or no snow for our area for February 12-14. Today, though, things have swung back in our favor. The Euro is showing 4-5" for us by Tuesday night; the American is showing 10+ inches for the Berkshires.

We have our doubts about 10+ inches on Tuesday, but it's promising that the models are both showing snow. We will likely see the model "windshield wiper effect" over the next 3-4 days. The models will show snow today and tomorrow--and initiate the hype machine--but then adjust and take the storm more to our south. But then over the weekend we'll see the models begin to show moderate snow again for Tuesday. This flip-flopping from the models is very typical of coastal storms at this time of year.

Clickbait alert. This is the American model projection for Tuesday.

Right now a big snow event is something fun to hope for, but the GSD Staff is not getting too excited (yet). If models begin to come in with high snow totals run after run--model projections come out every six hours--then we'll start to guide you about snow day chances on Tuesday. 

Think good snow thoughts, and we'll have more info soon.

Week of February 5: Dry and Sunny and Mild yet a Storm Looms in the Distance

Our stormy pattern has turned as Old Man Winter appears to be enjoying a mid-season break. Fortunately, it appears he's not going to take too much time off as many in the weather world are eyeing a late Monday/Early Tuesday snow event (Feb 12/13). A snow day in the week before the public schools tae their February break would not be a terrible turn of events.

Your vitamin D is going to get a big boost this week as we should see bright sun and clear skies until the end of the week. The pattern will be mid-30s during the day and mid-teens at night, which is good for artificial snow production at the facilities that need it. Get outside and enjoy the sun.