Light Snow for Christmas Eve

Winter weather nerds have particularly enjoyed the last three days. 

Around these parts, the Friday/Saturday snow overdelivered and dropped almost 4 inches of light fluffy snow at GSD Headquarters in Williamstown. We were only expected to get 1-2", so that was fun.

And then Monday morning, we woke up to bitterly cold air: -9℉ at 6 AM. Again, we did not expect to see the temp drop so low this morning. With no wind, no clouds, and snow on the ground, radiational cooling conditions allowed us to wake up to what might end up being the coldest air of the season.

Temps will moderate today and move closer to 20℉ by this afternoon in front of our next chance for snow. Another clipper will be passing through late tonight and into Tuesday morning. For those who have to go to work on Christmas Eve, the morning commute could be slow.

Euro forecast for Christmas Eve snow.

We are only expected to get 1-2" from this clipper, but it will be enough to ensure a white Christmas.

As for the rest of the week, it will be dry and getting gradually warmer. By Saturday we'll see temps in the 40s for daytime highs.

And in terms of the long-range snowstorm outlook, our two favorites models--the Euro and the North American--are not giving us much to work with. Both are showing a warm-up for next week. The Euro shows a chance for light snow on Jan. 2, and the North American is indicating a little light snow for Jan. 6. Things can and do often change, but right now no big storms are in the offing. 

Have a wonderful holiday! 

 

Snow Today (Friday, Dec. 20) and White Christmas Outlook

The GSD Staff holiday party ran later than expected last evening, so this post is a tad tardy.

We wish it were going to be more, but a weak Alberta Clipper is moving through our area right now and giving us a fresh coat of snow. It will only amount to an inch, if we're lucky.

Behind the snow are the coldest temps of the season. Some areas will see the mercury dip below zero Saturday night and Sunday night. The high temp on Sunday will be a frigid 14 degrees. Bundle up!

NWS Albany

There is a chance for more snow Monday night into Tuesday. We could see another inch or two. While it will not be enough to go sledding, the cold air in place should give us a white Christmas this year. It might be patchy in spots, but we should have a snow base of 1-2" by Wednesday.

Temps gradually rise back up into the 30s and 40s throughout the first week of vacation.

With school on break for two weeks, we'll be on break as well unless we see snow storms start to develop on the horizon. Have great holiday!

Snow Forecast for December 16-20

With the coldest air of the season in place--10° at GSD headquarters in Williamstown--winter is certainly here, and it's time to look ahead at the week ahead. Most school districts go on a two week vacation on Friday with the Christmas and New Year's falling on a Wednesday so this is our last chance for weather to impact school days for 2024.

We currently have two chances for delays and snow days. The first will be on Monday. A fairly weak low pressure system will move in from the west Sunday afternoon into Monday. It will start as snow but then change to rain in the late morning hours.

Both models are showing 1-2" of snow for the Berkshires. If the timing is right, we could see a few delays for districts Monday morning.

NWS Albany. Not much to write home about here.

The next chance for snow will again be on the front and back ends of a low pressure system that will impact our area mostly on Wednesday but into Thursday. The models are inconsistent but another shot of 1-3" is possible, especially in higher terrain.

It will not rain nearly as much as it did this past week, but the upcoming pattern is strikingly similar to last week.

Unfortunately, our confidence is low for delays on Monday or Thursday, but we are holding out hope that enough cold air will be in place to give some students shortened days.

Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire -- Tuesday/Wednesday, December 9-10

While the week ahead will be remembered for its rain--close to 2 inches will have fallen by Thursday morning--we do have wintry precipitation to pay attention to for Tuesday morning.

NWS Albany issued a Winter Weather Advisory that begins at 1 PM today. The afternoon commute could be somewhat slick as a few cold air pockets could create hazardous driving conditions due to sleet. The biggest concern for ice is in higher elevation towns in northern Berkshire County.

NWS Albany

It looks like the rain (and any associated sleet and freezing rain) will clear out by daybreak tomorrow. There's a very small chance for freezing drizzle for the Tuesday AM commute, but that scenario seems unlikely.

After the big rain on Wednesday, cold air does move in. Again, we might see snow on the back end of the storm. If the timing is right, delays are possible for Thursday morning. 

Overall, chances are quite high that all students in Berkshire County will have a full week of school with no interruptions. 

Ice, Rain, Snow--We Got It All This Week (December 9-13)

December has started off with a bang, with our first full snow day in December since 2022. Two years ago, we had a mid-December nor'easter that cancelled school for everyone.

NWS Albany

We have an interesting weather week coming up, but unfortunately warmer air will be in place so we are not expecting much snow this week.

After tonight's Alberta Clipper moves through--a possible 2-3" in Berkshire County late Saturday night into Sunday--two possibilities for delays are worth noting. 

First, we need to have our eyes and ears open for mixed precipitation and icing for Monday morning. While it's not a big event, the timing is very good and icy roads are a possibility. You'll see low numbers on the Confidence Meter, but it's a weather situation worth noting.

The middle of the week looks terrible. Local meteorologists are expecting 1-2 inches of rain Tuesday night and all day Wednesday. That will not be good for our early season snow base. 

On the backside of the midweek storm, we'll see cold air swoop in, and as the storm starts to exit, we could see frozen precipitation. Once again, we'll look at delay scenarios for Thursday.

Then, a week from now, we may have more unsettled weather at the start of the week, December 16-20. But that's too far out to get excited about.

In general, confidence is low for delays this week, but as always in the GSD Home Office, hope springs eternal. 

Delays and Cancellations: Thursday, December 5

The following schools have shortened or cancelled school for the day:

SNOW DAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology 

Berkshire Community College (Morning/Day classes cancelled; TBD on Night classes)
Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott

Hillcrest Academy

McCann

Mount Greylock
North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford, VT

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berlin, NY

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Farmington River
Hancock

Hoosick Falls, NY
Lee

Lenox
MCLA (open at 11 AM)

New Lebanon, NY

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire

Alberta Clipper On Schedule (Wednesday and Thursday, Dec. 4-5) [Updated 8 PM]

A short update as the snow continues to fall throughout Berkshire County. One factor we did not work into the equation is the wind. A Wind Advisory will go into effect tomorrow at 7 AM. Blowing and drifting snow will certainly challenge road crews in their attempts to make the streets passable. Already we're seeing gusty winds, which will only make driving conditions worse. We'll bump the Confidence Meter another 5 points in our favor due to the winds.

Below are our thoughts from earlier in the day.

Snowy Commutes--Wednesday PM and Thursday AM

It would appear that many of us in Berkshire County will need snow boots on Thursday morning as they make their way out into the world.

All meteorological indicators suggest snow will fall in all of Berkshire County starting Wednesday evening and lasting well into the morning on Thursday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued, calling for 2-5 inches of snow starting at 8 PM tomorrow and ending at 10 AM on Thursday.

NWS Albany

As we reminded folks in our last post, the source of the snow is an Alberta Clipper. While clippers usually generate light snow, this one seems to be more robust and could be an above-average performer. At least NWS Albany thinks so, as they have skewed their snow totals higher in the last 24 hours.

The models are fairly consistent right now. Both the Euro and North American are showing 3-4 inches for almost the entire county. The North American shows a little more snow for north county, with 4-6 for Lanesborough, Cheshire, Savoy and points north.

The North American (GFS) model.

We're definitely encouraged by the small tick up in volume and longer duration of the snow. We now have a better chance of seeing moderate snow in the pivotal 5-7 AM window when Superintendents and chiefs of road crews convene to make their decisions.

As a result of the better forecast, we'll bump delay and snow day chances on the Confidence Meter slightly. Schools in North County now have a better chance for a delay than none at all.

Delays In Play For Thursday, December 5

It's back to work and school for most of our readership, and fortunately the GSD staff is also back to work as well. We are currently tracking a snow situation for Wednesday night into Thursday morning that could bring the first delays of the season.

An Alberta clipper will move into our area Wednesday night. It appears that there may be enough energy with the storm to bring 2-4 inches to the area (with slightly higher amounts in the mountainous northeast corner of the county). [A reminder that Alberta Clippers are generally light or moderate snow producers. Rarely do they give us 6" or more. So there's little chance the forecast will go higher than 2-4" for this storm.]

The timing is pretty good but not ideal. Snow will fall throughout the night on Wednesday but start to taper in the morning. The big question is: will it be snowing hard enough at daybreak to cause Superintendents to delay for two hours? We would not mind seeing the storm slow down by a few hours to ensure snow during the morning commute.

NWS Albany

The good news is that there will be plenty of cold air in place. The bad news is that the snow will be light and dry, thus easier to clear.

For now we'll say 50/50 chance for delays above Pittsfield. Pittsfield schools and those to the south will have a less inspiring 25% chance.

More to follow!

Snowy Turkey Day

Good news, flake followers. The approaching storm is beginning to show signs that it will intensify, which means all of Berkshire County should see snow at some point on Thanksgiving Day.

Those who like to get in a little exercise before the feasting begins are going to have to brave snowy and possibly rainy conditions. Most folks will wake up to snow, but as the temps rise gradually we should see a transition to rain in locations under 1000'. Then we expect snow to return as we make our way toward evening.

NWS Albany

So, it will be slushy and wet but we can expect to see 1-4 inches (south to north) and upward of 7-9 inches in our higher elevation towns on the east side of the County. Snow should taper toward midnight, and Friday is now looking like a dry day.

One thing to watch out for is snow banding, which creates a period of intense snow fall. Some of the shorter range models are showing that this storm is capable of producing banding. It could come down as heavy snow for an our or so which could cancel out the changeover to rain and raise our snow totals considerably.

For what it's worth, both the Euro and North American models are showing 6-10 inches for the northern part of the county and 2-5 for the southern half. The GSD Staff thinks these predicted totals are too high, but it does bear watching.

Those planning to travel Thursday morning would be advised to try to head out today, if possible, as road travel looks to be challenging between 6 AM and 11 AM.

Turkey Day Snow

Many of you may have heard the word "nor'easter" mentioned in weather forecasts over the last few days. Yes, a nor'easter could possibly form for Thanksgiving and carry into the early hours of Friday, but it likely will be a weak one.

Should this storm develop--and the professional forecasters put this is a low probability scenario--it would mostly affect the eastern half of New England. We would see steady snow but not anything to get super excited about (3-5 inch range).

The North American model (snow prediction through Friday evening).

The good news is that we should see snow in parts of the Berkshires on Thursday no matter what the nor'easter does. The bad news is that it will impact the busy travel morning for those day-trippers looking to connect with Grandma for the holiday. 

As is common for this time of year, those in high elevation towns (above 1000') will be the ones more likely to see accumulating snow. Those of you who live in areas below 1000' will likely see a steady cold rain with wet snow mixing in. Because daytime temps are still well above freezing, don't expect much accumulation on the roads along Route 7 except in the usual high spots.

If the nor'easter somehow does over-perform and become much stronger than anticipated, it will pull cold air in from the north and northwest which will increase the likelihood of snow for all elevations in the Berkshires. If that situation develops, expect snow in the afternoon and evening on Thursday. But, again, forecasters are not optimistic about this potential development.

The European model (snow prediction through Friday evening). This model might have gotten into the holiday punch a few days early.

Whatever happens on Thursday, cold air looks to lock in over the weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the low 30s starting Saturday. Lows will be in the high teens. Winter!

We'll keep you posted should the models reveal more indicators that the storm will strength, especially for those holiday travelers. Both models are now showing snow, which they were not doing yesterday. And that's a good sign for all of us snow lovers.

First Flakes of the Season -- November 21-23

Finally, we have some wet weather. This is tremendous news for the folks working hard to contain the Butternut Fire in Great Barrington and Sheffield. A good soaking today (Thursday) will certainly help get things under control.

Because of the cool air in place and the low pressure developments associated with this storm, we are expecting to see the first flakes of the season in Berkshire County today and tomorrow. Unfortunately, not everyone will see the white stuff, but those denizens of high elevation towns could see an inch of slushy wet snow.

(NWS Albany)

Because ground temps have been well above freezing, we can't expect to see much accumulation even in the eastern hill towns. But the good news is that the overall pattern seems to be shifting, and we should see more opportunities for much needed rain and snow in the next few weeks.

Other than the few wet flakes we might see tonight and tomorrow, we are looking at the potential for snow next weekend. With even colder air in place in the second half of next week (high 30s/low 40s), we could see a minor snow event Friday evening into Saturday morning of Thanksgiving weekend.

Euro forecast map for Friday/Saturday (Nov. 29-30)

A (Sad) Song of (No) Ice And Fire

Here we are in mid-November and nary a snowflake in sight. Alas. 

It's not a great sign that we have a better chance of a seeing a forest fire than a flurry or two. And still there are those who think irreparable climate change is a hoax.

This is not exactly the hot start to the winter of '24-25 that we were hoping for. Temperatures continue to run well above normal during the day. It's small consolation, but at least we are consistently getting below freezing in the overnight hours.

The hard-working staff at GSD is scouring the forecast maps for any signs of winter life. While it is certainly nothing to get worked up about, we could see some wet snow next weekend. It will likely fall in high elevation towns and it's unlikely to accumulate on roads, but it's a start. 

If it snows, it will come on the back edge of a low pressure system headed our way on Thursday and Friday. The North American and European models are not in agreement, but we could see wet snow showers at some point on Friday and then again on Sunday. The North American model currently is showing a potential for snow in Massachusetts (heavier snow central) on Sunday, but this is a low confidence projection.

North American model (GFS) for Sunday morning (Nov. 24)

The pattern does seem to be shifting slightly with increased chances for precipitation toward the end of next week and thereafter.

The holiday season is nearly upon us. Keep snowy thoughts in your mind. Old Man Winter will get here eventually. 

We're Back!: A Quick Winter '24-'25 Preview

Welcome back, faithful followers of the flake! Despite how glorious as this fall has been with all the sunny days and lack of rain, it is that time of year when thoughts of snow start to fill our minds. With the first predictions for frost of the season already in the books, it's high time to give you, dear readers, a glimpse into the ol' meteorological crystal ball about the winter ahead.

The good news, we think, is that this winter will certainly not be as bad as last winter. Snowfall was way, way below average for New England with the high point in the winter an early April snow/sleet event that gave all students in Berkshire County the day off. Snow amounts were about half of what we typically get (historically around 60" at the GSD Home Office), and places like Boston (under 10") and Albany (31.8") were simply saddened by the dearth of snow.

This year we expect a bounce back. The forecast is for La Nina conditions this winter. For our area, that typically means higher average temperatures but also average or slightly higher than average precipitation. The higher temperature prediction does not mean all of our storms will be rain events. But what it typically signifies is that we will see many storms start out as snow and then change over to mixed precipitation and then rain. Fortunately, the changeover for those storms often occurs after the morning commute, but the dreaded changeover storms only produce angst for the GSD Staff. So, fewer "slam-dunk-call-it-in-the-night-before" events and more wait-and-see-until-the-morning storms.

While our first delays and snow days are probably at least a month away, parts of New England have seen snow already. High elevation towns in western Maine and in New Hampshire saw snow this week. Mount Washington had enough snow to plow (Oct. 9-11).

Image courtesy of Patrick Hummel, Mount Washington State Parks

NOAA is updating its long-range winter forecast on Thursday (Oct. 17). We'll be sure to pass on any new news ahout winter 2024-25. Until then, think wintry thoughts!

Delays and Snow Days for Thursday, April 4

Snow and sleet is still coming down in Berkshire County. It should continue for several hours before tapering later this morning. Here is the list of delays and snow days: LAST UPDATE: 7:40 AM

SNOW DAY

Berkshire Community College -- no day classes; evening classes TBD

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Clarksburg

Emma Miller (Savoy) 

Berkshire Arts & Technology

Central Berkshire
Gabriel Abbott (Florida)
Hancock

Hillcrest

Hoosac Valley

Lee [upgraded to closed]

Lenox

MCLA [now closed]

Mohawk Trail

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond 

Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU

Stamford (VT)

Storm Update and Early Cancellations for Thursday, April 4

The storm has started and the waiting game begins...for most. Already a few schools have gone with the snow day for tomorrow. Here's the short list (updated 9:02 PM): 

Emma Miller (Savoy) 

Berkshire Arts & Technology

Gabriel Abbott (Florida)

MCLA -- delayed opening; opening at 10:30

Mohawk Trail

Stamford (VT)

As of 5 PM, sleet is already mixing in with the rain at the Home Office of GSD in Williamstown (elevation 700 feet). Temps are in the mid 30s and creeping downward.

Most models and meteorologists are expecting the sleet to pick up and the snow to begin after midnight. But the worst of it does seem to be centered on the hours of the morning commute, which is giving us hope.

The radar, though, shows that this storm is not as tightly formed as we might like it to be. This means more of an off-and-on storm rather than long steady stretches of precipitation.

So, due to the more sporadic nature of the precipitation, snow totals need to be adjusted down, which means our chance of widespread snow days also needs to be ticked down. Again, schools in the northeast part of the county will have a much better chance for a snow day than schools in the southwest.

Unless there are many power outages tonight due to the high winds, we probably won't see too many schools added to the above list. We'll update it if we learn of any new cancellations. Otherwise, this is going to be a wait-and-see situation to see how bad the roads are in the 5 AM-8 AM window.

NWS Albany forecast.

Wind, Sleet and Snow -- April 3-4, 2024

Let's just get right into it. Overnight developments:

*The upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning in Northern Berkshire County for today through Friday morning--expected snow 5-10".

*South County now has a Winter Weather Advisory -- expected snow 2-4". 

*The continuation of the High Wind Warning for North County and a Wind Advisory for South County.

Today will feature rain and high winds. Wind speeds will peak later this evening. Gusts up to 60 MPH are expected in some higher elevation spots in Northern Berkshire county. 

Snow totals are great for eastern elevation towns--still in the 6+ range--but less exciting for the route 7 corridor -- only 2-5 inches south to north.

This is the NAM model showing ample sleet (2 AM Thursday).

But sleet is going to be the big X factor for snow day decisions. Right now models are showing the potential for prolonged period of sleet between 2 AM and 10 AM for Thursday. If the sleet does happen, roads will be very slick and most districts will call for a snow day.

Here's what we're thinking:

*Likely snow days for the northeast mountain elementary schools, Hoosac Valley, and Richmond Consolidated.

*Better than average chance for North Adams, Mount Greylock, and Central Berkshire.

*50/50 for Pittsfield.

*Less than average chance for Lenox, Lee, Berkshire Hills and Southern Berkshire.

Of course, a long period of sleet--especially if sleet is falling between 5 AM and 8 AM--will raise everyone's chances for full snow days.

And also in our proverbial back pocket is the fact that Superintendents have to had few opportunities to call in snow days. Some of them may be more inclined to use that snow-day-calling muscle that has atrophied this winter.

April 4, 2024 Storm

Things are about to get a whole lot messier in the New England.

Most reading this will see that the rain has started. It will continue through the evening and then the real action kicks in on Wednesday.

Northern Berkshire still has a Winter Storm Watch with the additional kicker of a High Wind Watch. Unfortunately, there has been no extension of the Winter Storm Watch to South County. Winds on Wednesday could hit 60 MPH in parts of northern Berkshire County.

Predicted snow totals came down last night, but as of mid-morning today they were back up with even the lowest elevation areas of the County expected to get a few inches of snow.

We are also starting to see the word "sleet" creep into the discussion with this storm. Sleet at the right time--namely the 5-8 AM window on Thursday--would increase chances for more districts to go with a snow day.

There's no real change to the snow forecast. High elevation towns will get 6+ inches. Towns by the Connecticut border will be in the 2-3" range. We should see 4-5 from Pittsfield north along the route 7 corridor. Just how deep into the valleys the cold air goes will determine if a few North County schools get snow days or if nearly every school in the county decides to call for a snow day on Thursday.

The key is going to be: when will the changeover to snow occur Wednesday night? We had hoped this map might provide some clarity, but...maybe? The good news is that snow and/or sleet is supposed to fall throughout the day on Thursday. So, it's likely going to be snow day or bust situation. Delayed openings will be off the menu.

More to come...

Winter Storm Watch for Northern Berkshire

Happy April Fool's day, all you flake followers.

Just a caveat before we break down this early spring storm: Spring storms can be very unpredictable. October and April/May storms tend to have high variance often because not enough cold air is firmly in place.

But, without said, let's jump in to this storm and most likely get our hopes up way too high for a snow day on Thursday.

First, moderate-to-big April storms are not that uncommon. In 1997, there was a legendary April Fools Day blizzard that crushed New England with 25" in Boston and areas in central Mass and New Hampshire hitting 30 inches. In 2021, the northeastern hill towns picked up half a foot on April 14th. In 1982, Springfield received 13 inches of snow. In 2016, parts of Western Mass picked up 4" of snow on April 4th. And in 2017 4-8" was predicted for April 1 but the storm was a flop.

This storm is going to be a long duration storm. It will start raining tomorrow (Tuesday), and it will not stop raining/sleeting/snowing until Friday.

Right now it's looking like rain Tuesday and Wednesday with snow mixing an then changing over to all snow Wednesday night. Snow will fall throughout the day on Thursday before tapering to snow showers on Friday.

NWS Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northern Berkshire that begins on Wednesday and ends Thursday night. The forecast is for the chance for 7+ inches of snow with some icing mixed in and high winds to boot. This sounds a little like our Saturday, March 23rd storm but with less ice. That day would have assuredly been a snow day had it fallen on a week day.

From the map above, it looks as if the eastern half of the county has a much higher chance for snow days. Any districts with high elevation towns (over 1000') could and perhaps should be enjoying a full day off on Thursday. 

Hopefully South County gets involved with at least a Winter Weather Advisory by tomorrow. 

Look for our next update around 1 PM on Tuesday.

Snow Day Possible For Thursday, April 4

We certainly don't want to jinx it, but one of our best chances for a snow day is about to happen this week.

A series of low pressure systems will impact our area Tuesday through Friday. The first one will bring mostly rain on Tuesday, but then a slow moving coastal low will creep up northeastward on Wednesday. Because the coastal storm will by pulling cold air down from the north, it should be cold enough for snow even in valley locations.

The American model projection.

Snow at this time of year typically only impacts higher elevation towns 1000' feet and above. But meteorologists are saying that even the valley areas will be cold enough for snow. The shift over from rain to snow should occur during the day on Wednesday and carry all the way through to the early pre-dawn hours of Friday morning.

The European. Yikes!

The European and American models are not quite in agreement. The Euro is showing a bomber of a storm with a 12+ for the Berkshires. The American is slightly less robust but showing 2-6 inches (south to north). 

We've been tricked before, but NWS Albany is saying that 3+ inches is likely for the region Wednesday into Thursday. And because most superintendents have yet to call in a snow day this winter, they may be more inclined to throw their students a proverbial bone.

Many more details to come over the next few days.

Winter Weather Advisory -- Friday 11 PM to Saturday 11 PM

It's the weekend, but with all the activities going on this weekend, the GSD Staff felt it necessary to give one more update about the approaching double-barreled storm.

Snow totals have been raised for our area based on new runs of the models. NWS Albany is now predicting 2-6" for the Berkshires. The 2" will (potentially) fall in the valleys and the 6" will fall in the northeastern mountain towns.

NWS Albany

The first burst from this storm will come in as snow. There will be enough cold air in place for snow. Part 2 of the storm--as moisture moves in from the south--could produce icing. Warm air will come in over the top of the cold air. This scenario produces ice--both sleet and freezing rain. 

The real concern is freezing rain as that will put a glaze of ice on everything. We could see up to a 1/6" of ice in some places. Because it will be windy, that should help knock some of the ice off tree branches before it can build up too much, which will help diminish the potential for power outages. But heavy icing on trees can definitely lead to significant problems for all.

Here's the timing:

*Snow gets going around here around midnight. And it will come down for several hours.
*Sleet and freezing rain should start to factor in around 5 AM, give or take an hour.
*Gradually, the snow and ice will shift over to all rain, which will continue throughout the day.
*As the storm exits Saturday night, we should see a brief period of snow. 

*Sunday will be dry but windy.

Our only concern about tomorrow is the threat of ice between 5 AM and 8 AM. If you have to be out on the roads, take care to check the conditions before you head out.

NWS Albany

Have a great weekend. Stay safe out there!

Welcome To Spring--Snow Expected Friday Night

It's officially Spring, so of course we have to report the chance for shovel-able snow Friday night into Saturday.

It's been a very wintry start to Spring, which began early than normal this year (the 19th) due to Leap Day. It's been cold, snowy, and blustery all week. This week alone we picked up over 2" of snow from three different minor events, including the thundery snow squall Wednesday night. But we are still way, way below average for this winter. And as many students know too well, many districts have not enjoyed even one snow day this winter.

Time is just about expired on Winter 2023-24, but a few more inches of snow are possible Friday night. There is A LOT of moisture with this storm. Many in the Berkshires will see over an inch of liquid precipitation by the time it stops late Saturday night. Unfortunately, it will begin as snow and then shift over to mixed precipitation for a short period and then all rain for most of the day on Saturday.

Expected snow Friday night into Saturday (NWS Albany).

High terrain areas will get more snow. Valley areas might see wet flakes with some accumulation on grassy areas. Snow should start to fall after midnight (Friday). It could changeover to rain at 5 AM; it could changeover at 11 AM. Either way, Saturday is going to be a washout with rain and temps rising through the 30s throughout the day--a perfect day for indoor activities.

Fortunately, Sunday looks clear but cold and windy again (like Thursday). We probably won't see a Wind Advisory, but it will feel downright raw when you head outside on Sunday.

Temps are trending upward for next week. We should see 50 degrees on Monday and Tuesday with a chance for rain on Wednesday.

Winter Weather Advisory For Sunday Night & Monday (March 10-11)

We're skeptical, but many in Berkshire County could wake up to 2-4 inches of snow Monday morning, with higher amounts in the western part of the county.

NWS-Albany has announced a Winter Weather Advisory for this evening through noon on Monday. In terms of delays/snow day chances, the expected timing of the snowfall is very good.

After all the rain last night, phase two of the storm will kick in this afternoon (Sunday). Overnight we will see something called "upslope snow" as the low pressure system moves into the Berkshires from the Great Lakes. Usually we talk about high amounts for the eastern parts of the county with storms, but this situation could yield higher amounts of snow for western Berkshire County.

If the models and forecasting prove to be accurate--and we know how that typically goes--we will definitely see delays tomorrow, with the most likely candidates in the northern half of the county. But again, we're skeptical.

The lesser known HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) model. Meteorologists like to focus on this model once a storm is within 24 hours of impacting an area.

We're going to bump up the Confidence Meter slightly just in the offhand chance that the models and meteorologists are mostly right this time.

Delays Possible For Monday, March 11

Happy weekend, Flake Followers!

An historically lame winter is coming to a close with only a few more opportunities to report on the chance for snow. But one of those chances is upon us tonight and Sunday night.

The snow this weekend--if it occurs--will come in two waves. And both of those waves will impact higher terrain areas first then the valleys.

To our north we are seeing Winter Storm Warnings in effect tonight for the southern Adirondacks and the southern Green Mountains. Winter weather advisories are in effect for surrounding areas but not yet for northern Berkshire County. Those go into effect this evening (Saturday).

Old Man Winter (23-24 edition) still has a pulse but it's feint.

Meteorologists are forecasting snow for elevations above 1500' for Saturday evening and Sunday. High elevation locales in northern Berkshire County could get up to 5". Most of us in the Berkshires will initially see rain with some wet snow mixed in.

As the first line of precipitation moves in Saturday night and early Sunday, we are expecting to see snow develop on the back end as the storm departs and the temps drop and winds pick up. This back-end-of-the-storm snow should come down after midnight on Sunday. Heavy bands of snow are possible, so that means roads could be messy Monday morning.

This is a low probability situation, but there is a chance some schools will see delays to start the week.

The bulk of our staff are traveling again this weekend, but we'll have time to update early morning Sunday or, at the latest, Sunday night.

High Winds & Dropping Temperature

We hope everyone who was off last week had a restful and rejuvenating week.

The weather has turned downright spring-like, but we are in for a big change in the next 48 hours. Temps will still be unseasonably warm on Wednesday despite rain moving into our area this evening. Rain will come down heavy at times, but the big newsmaker for this storm will be the wind. We have a High Wind Watch in effect with gusts expected to get into the 50 MPH range.

It's possible that we could see delays on Thursday due to power outages and/or slick roads. As the rain comes to end Wednesday night, temps will plummet and we could see a brief period of snow. The temperature will drop over 30 degrees in 12 hours. At the time of the morning commute, temps will be in the low 20s and the wind will be howling.

Click bait alert, as this map is misleading. This is the "high end" potential for snow (1 in 10 chance) according to NWS Albany. If this happens, delays are definite and some schools would go with snow days.

Our infrastructure is fairly sturdy in this part of the country, so delays due to power outages are not likely but possible. And a few cautious Superintendents may decide to delay the start of school if snow, black ice and/or icy roads due to a flash freeze become an issue.

With temps back up into the 40s on Friday (and higher for the weekend), we do not currently see any chances for snow days. But there's still some winter left and we're not closing shop any time soon.

Delays and Closings for Friday, February 16

Lake effect snow is moving through the county at the moment. It should taper off soon, as will the wind, which is very srong this morning.

We do have a few closings to report. 

CLOSED (last updated at 6:06 AM):

BART

Emma Miller

Friday Delays Possible for North County

Winter is in its stretch drive, which means we do not have too many more cracks at delays, snow days, and releases.

But Friday presents a slim opportunity for two-hour delays for some districts in northern Berkshire County. The Alberta Clipper is on our doorstep--snow should start/have started by 6 PM--and it is expect to drop a max of 5 inches of snow.

NWS Albany forecast.

The higher elevations will get the higher amounts of snow. Clarksburg, Florida, Savoy, New Ashford, Lanesboro all appear to be in line for 3-4 inches with only 1-2 inches in other southern locations. Unfortunately, it looks as if the snow will end between 3 and 4 AM, which should give road crews the chance to clear roads in time for the early bus runs.

We wish these end times were later.

Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, North Adams, Hancock, and the mountain elementary schools have a higher chance. Pittsfield, Central Berkshires, and Richmond could also eke out a delay. But it is more likely that all these students will have a full day of school rather than a delay. As we stated yesterday, the high winds associated with this storm will produce significant blowing and drifting of snow, which could prolong the clean-up time and raise chances for delays.

We do have one Friday cancellation to report: BART will be closed tomorrow.

We'll run a list bright and early tomorrow if any Superintendents decide to go with a delayed opening.

Alberta Clipper = Friday Delays?

We apologize for not posting immediately after the big bust of 2024 on Tuesday. What a massive letdown. It's rare to see the models so wildly misleading just 24 hours before the storm is supposed to hit. It definitely shakes our faith in the models. At least temporarily.

We know you will be skeptical given the Tuesday debacle, but it seems a few North County schools could have a delay on Friday. An Alberta Clipper is moving in from the northwest Thursday night and will leave a few inches of snow on the ground. There are many questions with this minor snow event: Will the snow last until the morning commute on Friday? Will road crews have enough time to clear the roads? Will Superintendents throw students a bone the day before vacation?

NWS Albany

The meteorological prediction is for snow to start around 6 PM (Thurs.) and end around 7 AM on Friday. North County could see 2-3 inches with more in the higher terrains (northeast mountain towns, especially). Farther south we'll see 1-2 inches.

Despite the performance of the models regarding the nor'easter early in the week, Alberta Clippers have less variability and are easier to predict. For example, according to NWS Albany, the high-end and low-end predictions for this storm are 3-4" on the high end and 1-2" inches on the low end. That's not that much different from what is currently being predicted.

A sneaky X-factor "exclusive" that you'll only find at GSD: High winds are expected with this clipper. That means more blowing snow, which will give the perception that it's snowing harder than it actually is. The blowing snow could tip the decision and give some students delays.

So, the districts that were supposed to be the big losers on Tuesday could be the winners on Friday. Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, and the mountain elementary schools as well as Stamford and Mount Anthony in Vermont could see delays. Down county we see diminishing chances for Pittsfield and Central Berkshires with even more remote chances for delays for Lenox, Lee, Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills.

This week's disappointing snow news is definitely lessened by the welcome week of vacation public schools have coming up. We'll take a few days off ourselves, but if any storms kicks up that could impact travel during the week, we'll share our thoughts.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: From Bad To Worse

This storm is now more likely to be a bust than one that affects the length of the school day. Even for South County the forecast is growing grimmer by the hour.

One thing we hear meteorologists talk about is that often the long term models can be way off, and the short term models tend to be accurate. Well, the short term models are showing a decreasing amount of snow for everyone.

So, unfortunately, we're going to scale back expectations yet again. We now think it's 35/65 in South County, limited in the central districts, and almost no chance in the northern districts. 

This is one of those short term model projections. This scenario would qualify as a "major bust."

With the start of the storm not expected until 6 or even 7 AM, Superintendents are going to have a hard time making the snow day call based on already dwindling snow projection numbers. We think Superintendents are, in fact, willing participants--given how few snow days they've called--but the facts are not going to lie: there just won't be enough justification for a full day off.

This does not mean the morning commute is going to be great. Snow should have started by the high school bus runs, especially south. Travel will be slow by the time the elementary school students need to report. Delays are possible but less likely because it will still be snowing at the later start time.

Do your favorite snow dance and pray to the Snow Gods, but do not be surprised if you have a full day of school tomorrow.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Bad News for North County

The Winter Storm Warning is still in effect for South County, and the Watch is still hanging on for dear life in North County, but this storm is definitely headed south literally and metaphorically.

Many professional weather folks were surprised to see the modeling of the storm change so rapidly early this morning. What looked like a sure-fire 6" storm for all of the County suddenly turned into a partial bust. 

The American model for tomorrow. Not great!

Boston and Springfield have already cancelled classes for tomorrow, but we think most Berkshire County Superintendents will wait it out until tomorrow to see if and when the snow starts to fall.

Despite the discouraging runs of the models this morning, South County schools should still be in line for full snow days. We're seeing many maps of a projected 3-6 inches. And the timing is perfect so Berkshire Hills, Southern Berkshire, Richmond, and even Lenox and Lee should be enjoying a day off.

Given the timing and how messy the morning commute could be, we won't be surprised to see Pittsfield and Central Berkshire get the day off as well but it's in no way a certainty. We've had snow days with only 2-3" of snow this year, so odds are 50/50 for the middle of the county.

Mount Greylock, North Adams, and Hoosac Valley could very well be the big losers. There's going to a sharp cut-off with the snow line. Some maps are showing 1-3 inches in the northwest corner, and others are even showing no snow for Williamstown and North Adams. That's a cruel twist in this relatively snow-less winter.

Simply put: the farther south and east you go, the better chance for a snow day. The farther north and west you go, the lesser chance for a snow day.

Next update: Monday, late afternoon.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Snow Days Likely

Good morning, Flake Followers!

It is certainly looking more and more likely that students in the area will be enjoying a snow day on Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch was expanded to Northern Berkshire as well as Southern Vermont, which means the expected track of the storm is more northerly. And remember, as the wise old staffers at GSD say, "the norther the better"™.

The things working in our favor:

*Enough cold air in place.
*Spectacularly perfect timing--snow starting around 3:00 AM and heavy snow expected throughout the morning on Tuesday.
*A high level of liquid is associated with this storm. More liquid = more snow.

What we don't like:

*It's a fast mover--probably no more than 12 hours of snow fall.
*There could be a significant cut-off line for the northern edge of the storm. The northwest corner of the Berkshires might only see 3-5 inches. The only school districts that could be affected by this cut-off would be Mount Anthony and Mount Greylock. Everyone else should be fine.

Widespread snow days are likely due to the anticipated heavy snow during the morning commute and the relatively high snow totals. And we definitely think some Superintendents will call this one on Monday night.

Here's our favorite map so far:

NWS Albany -- high end forecast.

We're not sure how this much snow is going to fall from a storm that is supposed to move through this fast, but we like it! In no way does the GSD Staff think that this amount of snow will fall, but it's nice knowing it's in the realm of possibility.

Here are some realistic maps:

Meteorologist Dave Epstein.

NWS Burlington

The next time you'll hear from us Monday. We'll have (hopefully) more refined information, more maps, and hopefully a few closings to report.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Details Coming Into Focus

A quick hitter between sessions at the Western Mass agricultural conference in Amherst:

*This will be a nor'easter of the Miller Type B variety (Ohio valley to coastal low pressure system development).

*Models are more in agreement and they are sending strong signals. The Euro has 9-12" for Berkshire County, while the American is slightly under that, showing 7-10" south to north. 

*The timing is "mwah!" (chef's kiss).

*Winter Weather Advisories and/or Winter Storm Watches could be posted as early as today.

Here are some maps:

American

European

The position of the center of this low pressure system is ideal.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Encouraging News

The buzz for Tuesday is beginning to get louder, and the forecast models continue to evolve in a more positive direction. There's still a lot of uncertainty but today things are looking better.

We've seen a slight change in the models today. We're seeing more agreement between the European and the American, and the snow totals are significantly higher. You would think that the GSD Staff would be over-the-moon excited about this development but two key pieces of information are holding us back: 1) it's going to be very warm in the days leading up to the storm; 2) we're still over 80 hours away from the onset of the storm so things can literally go south. 

The American Model. Snow totals by Tuesday evening.

The Euro. Same time frame. Not so bad!

Please don't misunderstand us--we are definitely encouraged by today's developments. Snow days are certainly possible for Tuesday--but we're just not ready to ramp the Confidence Meter up to 90% at the moment.

One of our trusted weather gurus is Bernie Rayno of Accuweather, and we really like what he's saying about this storm. He has noted the trends and thinks the storm track will continue to move slightly more north over the next few days. For us, the norther the better!

Bernie Rayno's map (created today--Friday).

The GSD Staff has a busy weekend with yet another agricultural conference (in western Mass this weekend), so our windows for posting are limited. We are hoping to get an update out midday tomorrow, but it may be a short one. At the latest we'll update Sunday morning with more comprehensive information about the possible snow day for Tuesday.

February 13 Storm: Keeping Hope Alive

We hope you have enjoyed this week of sun and milder temps during the day. But that's not why you're here, so we are going to get right to it regarding next week's storm.

Simply put, there's some hope for a storm on Tuesday. The National Weather Services in both Boston and Albany have mentioned a coastal storm in their longer range forecasts. There are signals for a significant coastal storm developing late Monday into Tuesday, but the track of the storm is anything but certain at the moment. 

As far as the models go, they are all over the place. Last weekend they were both showing plowable snow for our area. Then, early this week, they showed little or no snow for our area for February 12-14. Today, though, things have swung back in our favor. The Euro is showing 4-5" for us by Tuesday night; the American is showing 10+ inches for the Berkshires.

We have our doubts about 10+ inches on Tuesday, but it's promising that the models are both showing snow. We will likely see the model "windshield wiper effect" over the next 3-4 days. The models will show snow today and tomorrow--and initiate the hype machine--but then adjust and take the storm more to our south. But then over the weekend we'll see the models begin to show moderate snow again for Tuesday. This flip-flopping from the models is very typical of coastal storms at this time of year.

Clickbait alert. This is the American model projection for Tuesday.

Right now a big snow event is something fun to hope for, but the GSD Staff is not getting too excited (yet). If models begin to come in with high snow totals run after run--model projections come out every six hours--then we'll start to guide you about snow day chances on Tuesday. 

Think good snow thoughts, and we'll have more info soon.

Week of February 5: Dry and Sunny and Mild yet a Storm Looms in the Distance

Our stormy pattern has turned as Old Man Winter appears to be enjoying a mid-season break. Fortunately, it appears he's not going to take too much time off as many in the weather world are eyeing a late Monday/Early Tuesday snow event (Feb 12/13). A snow day in the week before the public schools tae their February break would not be a terrible turn of events.

Your vitamin D is going to get a big boost this week as we should see bright sun and clear skies until the end of the week. The pattern will be mid-30s during the day and mid-teens at night, which is good for artificial snow production at the facilities that need it. Get outside and enjoy the sun.

Delays and Closings for Monday, January 29

We have snow showers at the GSD Home Office and snow will end in a few hours. The following schools have reported delays or closings:

TWO-HOUR DELAY (updated 7:18 AM):

Adams-Cheshire

BART

Berkshire Country Day

Berlin (NY)

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Farmington River

Gabriel Abbott (Florida)

Hancock

Hillcrest
Hoosick Falls (NY)

Lee

Mount Greylock

North Adams
New Lebanon (NY)

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond

Southern Berkshire

Stamford (VT)

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller (Savoy)

Winter Storm: Sunday Evening Report

Big, heavy flakes are falling at the GSD Home Office (as of 9 PM) with about a half an inch to an inch of slush on the ground. Snow is beginning to accumulate on the roads.

We're going to cut to the chase: delays are still possible but we think a majority of schools will have a full day of school tomorrow (unlike last Wednesday). We'll have several hours of wet snow this evening until it tapers off to snow showers and light snow after midnight. Road crews should have enough time to get the roads clear in time for the regular start of the school day. Hill towns will still see higher totals, but valleys will be limited to 2 inches or so.

WNYT's snow map. Eastern hill towns have the best chance for delays/snow days.

But we do have one cancellation to report. Emma Miller in Savoy will be closed tomorrow. 

We'll run a more complete list tomorrow should more schools call in delays and snow days.

Winter Storm Warning & Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday/Monday, Jan. 28-29

Good morning! 

Half of Berkshire County is in a Winter Storm Warning, and half is in a Winter Weather Advisory. We are seeing snow now, but there's a good chance it will change to rain soon and then back to snow this evening.

There are two parts to the storm. The current part of the storm will bring snow then a warm-up and rain. As the secondary low pressure system forms off the coast later this afternoon, cold air from the north will get pulled into our area and that's when the changeover back to snow will occur.

Not enough snow for full snow days tomorrow, if this map proves to be accurate.

The problem is that the more potent part of the storm will occur during the day today. The less potent part will occur this evening into tomorrow morning.

So, all the factors being gathered together, we think that--if there even is a school day-shortening decision--Superintendents will go with a delay tomorrow, except for the high elevation towns on the east side of the county who could get full snow days (which you've heard before).

But we're still holding out hope for full snow days for many. If the storm over-performs, we could see 6-12 inches for the County. And as long as 5-6" are on the ground and it's still snowing when the Superintendents move into action tomorrow morning, we could see full snow days.

If the storm over-performs, then snow days are likely on Monday.

You can tell that there's still a lot of uncertainty with this event due to the relatively warm temps. But keep your ears and eyes open. The GSD Staff's agricultural conference continues today, so the next update will not be until this evening (between 8 and 9 PM).

Stay safe out there!