We're Back!: A Quick Winter '24-'25 Preview

Welcome back, faithful followers of the flake! Despite how glorious as this fall has been with all the sunny days and lack of rain, it is that time of year when thoughts of snow start to fill our minds. With the first predictions for frost of the season already in the books, it's high time to give you, dear readers, a glimpse into the ol' meteorological crystal ball about the winter ahead.

The good news, we think, is that this winter will certainly not be as bad as last winter. Snowfall was way, way below average for New England with the high point in the winter an early April snow/sleet event that gave all students in Berkshire County the day off. Snow amounts were about half of what we typically get (historically around 60" at the GSD Home Office), and places like Boston (under 10") and Albany (31.8") were simply saddened by the dearth of snow.

This year we expect a bounce back. The forecast is for La Nina conditions this winter. For our area, that typically means higher average temperatures but also average or slightly higher than average precipitation. The higher temperature prediction does not mean all of our storms will be rain events. But what it typically signifies is that we will see many storms start out as snow and then change over to mixed precipitation and then rain. Fortunately, the changeover for those storms often occurs after the morning commute, but the dreaded changeover storms only produce angst for the GSD Staff. So, fewer "slam-dunk-call-it-in-the-night-before" events and more wait-and-see-until-the-morning storms.

While our first delays and snow days are probably at least a month away, parts of New England have seen snow already. High elevation towns in western Maine and in New Hampshire saw snow this week. Mount Washington had enough snow to plow (Oct. 9-11).

Image courtesy of Patrick Hummel, Mount Washington State Parks

NOAA is updating its long-range winter forecast on Thursday (Oct. 17). We'll be sure to pass on any new news ahout winter 2024-25. Until then, think wintry thoughts!

Delays and Snow Days for Thursday, April 4

Snow and sleet is still coming down in Berkshire County. It should continue for several hours before tapering later this morning. Here is the list of delays and snow days: LAST UPDATE: 7:40 AM

SNOW DAY

Berkshire Community College -- no day classes; evening classes TBD

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Clarksburg

Emma Miller (Savoy) 

Berkshire Arts & Technology

Central Berkshire
Gabriel Abbott (Florida)
Hancock

Hillcrest

Hoosac Valley

Lee [upgraded to closed]

Lenox

MCLA [now closed]

Mohawk Trail

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond 

Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU

Stamford (VT)

Storm Update and Early Cancellations for Thursday, April 4

The storm has started and the waiting game begins...for most. Already a few schools have gone with the snow day for tomorrow. Here's the short list (updated 9:02 PM): 

Emma Miller (Savoy) 

Berkshire Arts & Technology

Gabriel Abbott (Florida)

MCLA -- delayed opening; opening at 10:30

Mohawk Trail

Stamford (VT)

As of 5 PM, sleet is already mixing in with the rain at the Home Office of GSD in Williamstown (elevation 700 feet). Temps are in the mid 30s and creeping downward.

Most models and meteorologists are expecting the sleet to pick up and the snow to begin after midnight. But the worst of it does seem to be centered on the hours of the morning commute, which is giving us hope.

The radar, though, shows that this storm is not as tightly formed as we might like it to be. This means more of an off-and-on storm rather than long steady stretches of precipitation.

So, due to the more sporadic nature of the precipitation, snow totals need to be adjusted down, which means our chance of widespread snow days also needs to be ticked down. Again, schools in the northeast part of the county will have a much better chance for a snow day than schools in the southwest.

Unless there are many power outages tonight due to the high winds, we probably won't see too many schools added to the above list. We'll update it if we learn of any new cancellations. Otherwise, this is going to be a wait-and-see situation to see how bad the roads are in the 5 AM-8 AM window.

NWS Albany forecast.

Wind, Sleet and Snow -- April 3-4, 2024

Let's just get right into it. Overnight developments:

*The upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning in Northern Berkshire County for today through Friday morning--expected snow 5-10".

*South County now has a Winter Weather Advisory -- expected snow 2-4". 

*The continuation of the High Wind Warning for North County and a Wind Advisory for South County.

Today will feature rain and high winds. Wind speeds will peak later this evening. Gusts up to 60 MPH are expected in some higher elevation spots in Northern Berkshire county. 

Snow totals are great for eastern elevation towns--still in the 6+ range--but less exciting for the route 7 corridor -- only 2-5 inches south to north.

This is the NAM model showing ample sleet (2 AM Thursday).

But sleet is going to be the big X factor for snow day decisions. Right now models are showing the potential for prolonged period of sleet between 2 AM and 10 AM for Thursday. If the sleet does happen, roads will be very slick and most districts will call for a snow day.

Here's what we're thinking:

*Likely snow days for the northeast mountain elementary schools, Hoosac Valley, and Richmond Consolidated.

*Better than average chance for North Adams, Mount Greylock, and Central Berkshire.

*50/50 for Pittsfield.

*Less than average chance for Lenox, Lee, Berkshire Hills and Southern Berkshire.

Of course, a long period of sleet--especially if sleet is falling between 5 AM and 8 AM--will raise everyone's chances for full snow days.

And also in our proverbial back pocket is the fact that Superintendents have to had few opportunities to call in snow days. Some of them may be more inclined to use that snow-day-calling muscle that has atrophied this winter.

April 4, 2024 Storm

Things are about to get a whole lot messier in the New England.

Most reading this will see that the rain has started. It will continue through the evening and then the real action kicks in on Wednesday.

Northern Berkshire still has a Winter Storm Watch with the additional kicker of a High Wind Watch. Unfortunately, there has been no extension of the Winter Storm Watch to South County. Winds on Wednesday could hit 60 MPH in parts of northern Berkshire County.

Predicted snow totals came down last night, but as of mid-morning today they were back up with even the lowest elevation areas of the County expected to get a few inches of snow.

We are also starting to see the word "sleet" creep into the discussion with this storm. Sleet at the right time--namely the 5-8 AM window on Thursday--would increase chances for more districts to go with a snow day.

There's no real change to the snow forecast. High elevation towns will get 6+ inches. Towns by the Connecticut border will be in the 2-3" range. We should see 4-5 from Pittsfield north along the route 7 corridor. Just how deep into the valleys the cold air goes will determine if a few North County schools get snow days or if nearly every school in the county decides to call for a snow day on Thursday.

The key is going to be: when will the changeover to snow occur Wednesday night? We had hoped this map might provide some clarity, but...maybe? The good news is that snow and/or sleet is supposed to fall throughout the day on Thursday. So, it's likely going to be snow day or bust situation. Delayed openings will be off the menu.

More to come...

Winter Storm Watch for Northern Berkshire

Happy April Fool's day, all you flake followers.

Just a caveat before we break down this early spring storm: Spring storms can be very unpredictable. October and April/May storms tend to have high variance often because not enough cold air is firmly in place.

But, without said, let's jump in to this storm and most likely get our hopes up way too high for a snow day on Thursday.

First, moderate-to-big April storms are not that uncommon. In 1997, there was a legendary April Fools Day blizzard that crushed New England with 25" in Boston and areas in central Mass and New Hampshire hitting 30 inches. In 2021, the northeastern hill towns picked up half a foot on April 14th. In 1982, Springfield received 13 inches of snow. In 2016, parts of Western Mass picked up 4" of snow on April 4th. And in 2017 4-8" was predicted for April 1 but the storm was a flop.

This storm is going to be a long duration storm. It will start raining tomorrow (Tuesday), and it will not stop raining/sleeting/snowing until Friday.

Right now it's looking like rain Tuesday and Wednesday with snow mixing an then changing over to all snow Wednesday night. Snow will fall throughout the day on Thursday before tapering to snow showers on Friday.

NWS Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northern Berkshire that begins on Wednesday and ends Thursday night. The forecast is for the chance for 7+ inches of snow with some icing mixed in and high winds to boot. This sounds a little like our Saturday, March 23rd storm but with less ice. That day would have assuredly been a snow day had it fallen on a week day.

From the map above, it looks as if the eastern half of the county has a much higher chance for snow days. Any districts with high elevation towns (over 1000') could and perhaps should be enjoying a full day off on Thursday. 

Hopefully South County gets involved with at least a Winter Weather Advisory by tomorrow. 

Look for our next update around 1 PM on Tuesday.

Snow Day Possible For Thursday, April 4

We certainly don't want to jinx it, but one of our best chances for a snow day is about to happen this week.

A series of low pressure systems will impact our area Tuesday through Friday. The first one will bring mostly rain on Tuesday, but then a slow moving coastal low will creep up northeastward on Wednesday. Because the coastal storm will by pulling cold air down from the north, it should be cold enough for snow even in valley locations.

The American model projection.

Snow at this time of year typically only impacts higher elevation towns 1000' feet and above. But meteorologists are saying that even the valley areas will be cold enough for snow. The shift over from rain to snow should occur during the day on Wednesday and carry all the way through to the early pre-dawn hours of Friday morning.

The European. Yikes!

The European and American models are not quite in agreement. The Euro is showing a bomber of a storm with a 12+ for the Berkshires. The American is slightly less robust but showing 2-6 inches (south to north). 

We've been tricked before, but NWS Albany is saying that 3+ inches is likely for the region Wednesday into Thursday. And because most superintendents have yet to call in a snow day this winter, they may be more inclined to throw their students a proverbial bone.

Many more details to come over the next few days.

Winter Weather Advisory -- Friday 11 PM to Saturday 11 PM

It's the weekend, but with all the activities going on this weekend, the GSD Staff felt it necessary to give one more update about the approaching double-barreled storm.

Snow totals have been raised for our area based on new runs of the models. NWS Albany is now predicting 2-6" for the Berkshires. The 2" will (potentially) fall in the valleys and the 6" will fall in the northeastern mountain towns.

NWS Albany

The first burst from this storm will come in as snow. There will be enough cold air in place for snow. Part 2 of the storm--as moisture moves in from the south--could produce icing. Warm air will come in over the top of the cold air. This scenario produces ice--both sleet and freezing rain. 

The real concern is freezing rain as that will put a glaze of ice on everything. We could see up to a 1/6" of ice in some places. Because it will be windy, that should help knock some of the ice off tree branches before it can build up too much, which will help diminish the potential for power outages. But heavy icing on trees can definitely lead to significant problems for all.

Here's the timing:

*Snow gets going around here around midnight. And it will come down for several hours.
*Sleet and freezing rain should start to factor in around 5 AM, give or take an hour.
*Gradually, the snow and ice will shift over to all rain, which will continue throughout the day.
*As the storm exits Saturday night, we should see a brief period of snow. 

*Sunday will be dry but windy.

Our only concern about tomorrow is the threat of ice between 5 AM and 8 AM. If you have to be out on the roads, take care to check the conditions before you head out.

NWS Albany

Have a great weekend. Stay safe out there!

Welcome To Spring--Snow Expected Friday Night

It's officially Spring, so of course we have to report the chance for shovel-able snow Friday night into Saturday.

It's been a very wintry start to Spring, which began early than normal this year (the 19th) due to Leap Day. It's been cold, snowy, and blustery all week. This week alone we picked up over 2" of snow from three different minor events, including the thundery snow squall Wednesday night. But we are still way, way below average for this winter. And as many students know too well, many districts have not enjoyed even one snow day this winter.

Time is just about expired on Winter 2023-24, but a few more inches of snow are possible Friday night. There is A LOT of moisture with this storm. Many in the Berkshires will see over an inch of liquid precipitation by the time it stops late Saturday night. Unfortunately, it will begin as snow and then shift over to mixed precipitation for a short period and then all rain for most of the day on Saturday.

Expected snow Friday night into Saturday (NWS Albany).

High terrain areas will get more snow. Valley areas might see wet flakes with some accumulation on grassy areas. Snow should start to fall after midnight (Friday). It could changeover to rain at 5 AM; it could changeover at 11 AM. Either way, Saturday is going to be a washout with rain and temps rising through the 30s throughout the day--a perfect day for indoor activities.

Fortunately, Sunday looks clear but cold and windy again (like Thursday). We probably won't see a Wind Advisory, but it will feel downright raw when you head outside on Sunday.

Temps are trending upward for next week. We should see 50 degrees on Monday and Tuesday with a chance for rain on Wednesday.

Winter Weather Advisory For Sunday Night & Monday (March 10-11)

We're skeptical, but many in Berkshire County could wake up to 2-4 inches of snow Monday morning, with higher amounts in the western part of the county.

NWS-Albany has announced a Winter Weather Advisory for this evening through noon on Monday. In terms of delays/snow day chances, the expected timing of the snowfall is very good.

After all the rain last night, phase two of the storm will kick in this afternoon (Sunday). Overnight we will see something called "upslope snow" as the low pressure system moves into the Berkshires from the Great Lakes. Usually we talk about high amounts for the eastern parts of the county with storms, but this situation could yield higher amounts of snow for western Berkshire County.

If the models and forecasting prove to be accurate--and we know how that typically goes--we will definitely see delays tomorrow, with the most likely candidates in the northern half of the county. But again, we're skeptical.

The lesser known HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) model. Meteorologists like to focus on this model once a storm is within 24 hours of impacting an area.

We're going to bump up the Confidence Meter slightly just in the offhand chance that the models and meteorologists are mostly right this time.

Delays Possible For Monday, March 11

Happy weekend, Flake Followers!

An historically lame winter is coming to a close with only a few more opportunities to report on the chance for snow. But one of those chances is upon us tonight and Sunday night.

The snow this weekend--if it occurs--will come in two waves. And both of those waves will impact higher terrain areas first then the valleys.

To our north we are seeing Winter Storm Warnings in effect tonight for the southern Adirondacks and the southern Green Mountains. Winter weather advisories are in effect for surrounding areas but not yet for northern Berkshire County. Those go into effect this evening (Saturday).

Old Man Winter (23-24 edition) still has a pulse but it's feint.

Meteorologists are forecasting snow for elevations above 1500' for Saturday evening and Sunday. High elevation locales in northern Berkshire County could get up to 5". Most of us in the Berkshires will initially see rain with some wet snow mixed in.

As the first line of precipitation moves in Saturday night and early Sunday, we are expecting to see snow develop on the back end as the storm departs and the temps drop and winds pick up. This back-end-of-the-storm snow should come down after midnight on Sunday. Heavy bands of snow are possible, so that means roads could be messy Monday morning.

This is a low probability situation, but there is a chance some schools will see delays to start the week.

The bulk of our staff are traveling again this weekend, but we'll have time to update early morning Sunday or, at the latest, Sunday night.

High Winds & Dropping Temperature

We hope everyone who was off last week had a restful and rejuvenating week.

The weather has turned downright spring-like, but we are in for a big change in the next 48 hours. Temps will still be unseasonably warm on Wednesday despite rain moving into our area this evening. Rain will come down heavy at times, but the big newsmaker for this storm will be the wind. We have a High Wind Watch in effect with gusts expected to get into the 50 MPH range.

It's possible that we could see delays on Thursday due to power outages and/or slick roads. As the rain comes to end Wednesday night, temps will plummet and we could see a brief period of snow. The temperature will drop over 30 degrees in 12 hours. At the time of the morning commute, temps will be in the low 20s and the wind will be howling.

Click bait alert, as this map is misleading. This is the "high end" potential for snow (1 in 10 chance) according to NWS Albany. If this happens, delays are definite and some schools would go with snow days.

Our infrastructure is fairly sturdy in this part of the country, so delays due to power outages are not likely but possible. And a few cautious Superintendents may decide to delay the start of school if snow, black ice and/or icy roads due to a flash freeze become an issue.

With temps back up into the 40s on Friday (and higher for the weekend), we do not currently see any chances for snow days. But there's still some winter left and we're not closing shop any time soon.

Delays and Closings for Friday, February 16

Lake effect snow is moving through the county at the moment. It should taper off soon, as will the wind, which is very srong this morning.

We do have a few closings to report. 

CLOSED (last updated at 6:06 AM):

BART

Emma Miller

Friday Delays Possible for North County

Winter is in its stretch drive, which means we do not have too many more cracks at delays, snow days, and releases.

But Friday presents a slim opportunity for two-hour delays for some districts in northern Berkshire County. The Alberta Clipper is on our doorstep--snow should start/have started by 6 PM--and it is expect to drop a max of 5 inches of snow.

NWS Albany forecast.

The higher elevations will get the higher amounts of snow. Clarksburg, Florida, Savoy, New Ashford, Lanesboro all appear to be in line for 3-4 inches with only 1-2 inches in other southern locations. Unfortunately, it looks as if the snow will end between 3 and 4 AM, which should give road crews the chance to clear roads in time for the early bus runs.

We wish these end times were later.

Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, North Adams, Hancock, and the mountain elementary schools have a higher chance. Pittsfield, Central Berkshires, and Richmond could also eke out a delay. But it is more likely that all these students will have a full day of school rather than a delay. As we stated yesterday, the high winds associated with this storm will produce significant blowing and drifting of snow, which could prolong the clean-up time and raise chances for delays.

We do have one Friday cancellation to report: BART will be closed tomorrow.

We'll run a list bright and early tomorrow if any Superintendents decide to go with a delayed opening.

Alberta Clipper = Friday Delays?

We apologize for not posting immediately after the big bust of 2024 on Tuesday. What a massive letdown. It's rare to see the models so wildly misleading just 24 hours before the storm is supposed to hit. It definitely shakes our faith in the models. At least temporarily.

We know you will be skeptical given the Tuesday debacle, but it seems a few North County schools could have a delay on Friday. An Alberta Clipper is moving in from the northwest Thursday night and will leave a few inches of snow on the ground. There are many questions with this minor snow event: Will the snow last until the morning commute on Friday? Will road crews have enough time to clear the roads? Will Superintendents throw students a bone the day before vacation?

NWS Albany

The meteorological prediction is for snow to start around 6 PM (Thurs.) and end around 7 AM on Friday. North County could see 2-3 inches with more in the higher terrains (northeast mountain towns, especially). Farther south we'll see 1-2 inches.

Despite the performance of the models regarding the nor'easter early in the week, Alberta Clippers have less variability and are easier to predict. For example, according to NWS Albany, the high-end and low-end predictions for this storm are 3-4" on the high end and 1-2" inches on the low end. That's not that much different from what is currently being predicted.

A sneaky X-factor "exclusive" that you'll only find at GSD: High winds are expected with this clipper. That means more blowing snow, which will give the perception that it's snowing harder than it actually is. The blowing snow could tip the decision and give some students delays.

So, the districts that were supposed to be the big losers on Tuesday could be the winners on Friday. Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, and the mountain elementary schools as well as Stamford and Mount Anthony in Vermont could see delays. Down county we see diminishing chances for Pittsfield and Central Berkshires with even more remote chances for delays for Lenox, Lee, Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills.

This week's disappointing snow news is definitely lessened by the welcome week of vacation public schools have coming up. We'll take a few days off ourselves, but if any storms kicks up that could impact travel during the week, we'll share our thoughts.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: From Bad To Worse

This storm is now more likely to be a bust than one that affects the length of the school day. Even for South County the forecast is growing grimmer by the hour.

One thing we hear meteorologists talk about is that often the long term models can be way off, and the short term models tend to be accurate. Well, the short term models are showing a decreasing amount of snow for everyone.

So, unfortunately, we're going to scale back expectations yet again. We now think it's 35/65 in South County, limited in the central districts, and almost no chance in the northern districts. 

This is one of those short term model projections. This scenario would qualify as a "major bust."

With the start of the storm not expected until 6 or even 7 AM, Superintendents are going to have a hard time making the snow day call based on already dwindling snow projection numbers. We think Superintendents are, in fact, willing participants--given how few snow days they've called--but the facts are not going to lie: there just won't be enough justification for a full day off.

This does not mean the morning commute is going to be great. Snow should have started by the high school bus runs, especially south. Travel will be slow by the time the elementary school students need to report. Delays are possible but less likely because it will still be snowing at the later start time.

Do your favorite snow dance and pray to the Snow Gods, but do not be surprised if you have a full day of school tomorrow.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Bad News for North County

The Winter Storm Warning is still in effect for South County, and the Watch is still hanging on for dear life in North County, but this storm is definitely headed south literally and metaphorically.

Many professional weather folks were surprised to see the modeling of the storm change so rapidly early this morning. What looked like a sure-fire 6" storm for all of the County suddenly turned into a partial bust. 

The American model for tomorrow. Not great!

Boston and Springfield have already cancelled classes for tomorrow, but we think most Berkshire County Superintendents will wait it out until tomorrow to see if and when the snow starts to fall.

Despite the discouraging runs of the models this morning, South County schools should still be in line for full snow days. We're seeing many maps of a projected 3-6 inches. And the timing is perfect so Berkshire Hills, Southern Berkshire, Richmond, and even Lenox and Lee should be enjoying a day off.

Given the timing and how messy the morning commute could be, we won't be surprised to see Pittsfield and Central Berkshire get the day off as well but it's in no way a certainty. We've had snow days with only 2-3" of snow this year, so odds are 50/50 for the middle of the county.

Mount Greylock, North Adams, and Hoosac Valley could very well be the big losers. There's going to a sharp cut-off with the snow line. Some maps are showing 1-3 inches in the northwest corner, and others are even showing no snow for Williamstown and North Adams. That's a cruel twist in this relatively snow-less winter.

Simply put: the farther south and east you go, the better chance for a snow day. The farther north and west you go, the lesser chance for a snow day.

Next update: Monday, late afternoon.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Snow Days Likely

Good morning, Flake Followers!

It is certainly looking more and more likely that students in the area will be enjoying a snow day on Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch was expanded to Northern Berkshire as well as Southern Vermont, which means the expected track of the storm is more northerly. And remember, as the wise old staffers at GSD say, "the norther the better"™.

The things working in our favor:

*Enough cold air in place.
*Spectacularly perfect timing--snow starting around 3:00 AM and heavy snow expected throughout the morning on Tuesday.
*A high level of liquid is associated with this storm. More liquid = more snow.

What we don't like:

*It's a fast mover--probably no more than 12 hours of snow fall.
*There could be a significant cut-off line for the northern edge of the storm. The northwest corner of the Berkshires might only see 3-5 inches. The only school districts that could be affected by this cut-off would be Mount Anthony and Mount Greylock. Everyone else should be fine.

Widespread snow days are likely due to the anticipated heavy snow during the morning commute and the relatively high snow totals. And we definitely think some Superintendents will call this one on Monday night.

Here's our favorite map so far:

NWS Albany -- high end forecast.

We're not sure how this much snow is going to fall from a storm that is supposed to move through this fast, but we like it! In no way does the GSD Staff think that this amount of snow will fall, but it's nice knowing it's in the realm of possibility.

Here are some realistic maps:

Meteorologist Dave Epstein.

NWS Burlington

The next time you'll hear from us Monday. We'll have (hopefully) more refined information, more maps, and hopefully a few closings to report.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Details Coming Into Focus

A quick hitter between sessions at the Western Mass agricultural conference in Amherst:

*This will be a nor'easter of the Miller Type B variety (Ohio valley to coastal low pressure system development).

*Models are more in agreement and they are sending strong signals. The Euro has 9-12" for Berkshire County, while the American is slightly under that, showing 7-10" south to north. 

*The timing is "mwah!" (chef's kiss).

*Winter Weather Advisories and/or Winter Storm Watches could be posted as early as today.

Here are some maps:

American

European

The position of the center of this low pressure system is ideal.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Encouraging News

The buzz for Tuesday is beginning to get louder, and the forecast models continue to evolve in a more positive direction. There's still a lot of uncertainty but today things are looking better.

We've seen a slight change in the models today. We're seeing more agreement between the European and the American, and the snow totals are significantly higher. You would think that the GSD Staff would be over-the-moon excited about this development but two key pieces of information are holding us back: 1) it's going to be very warm in the days leading up to the storm; 2) we're still over 80 hours away from the onset of the storm so things can literally go south. 

The American Model. Snow totals by Tuesday evening.

The Euro. Same time frame. Not so bad!

Please don't misunderstand us--we are definitely encouraged by today's developments. Snow days are certainly possible for Tuesday--but we're just not ready to ramp the Confidence Meter up to 90% at the moment.

One of our trusted weather gurus is Bernie Rayno of Accuweather, and we really like what he's saying about this storm. He has noted the trends and thinks the storm track will continue to move slightly more north over the next few days. For us, the norther the better!

Bernie Rayno's map (created today--Friday).

The GSD Staff has a busy weekend with yet another agricultural conference (in western Mass this weekend), so our windows for posting are limited. We are hoping to get an update out midday tomorrow, but it may be a short one. At the latest we'll update Sunday morning with more comprehensive information about the possible snow day for Tuesday.

February 13 Storm: Keeping Hope Alive

We hope you have enjoyed this week of sun and milder temps during the day. But that's not why you're here, so we are going to get right to it regarding next week's storm.

Simply put, there's some hope for a storm on Tuesday. The National Weather Services in both Boston and Albany have mentioned a coastal storm in their longer range forecasts. There are signals for a significant coastal storm developing late Monday into Tuesday, but the track of the storm is anything but certain at the moment. 

As far as the models go, they are all over the place. Last weekend they were both showing plowable snow for our area. Then, early this week, they showed little or no snow for our area for February 12-14. Today, though, things have swung back in our favor. The Euro is showing 4-5" for us by Tuesday night; the American is showing 10+ inches for the Berkshires.

We have our doubts about 10+ inches on Tuesday, but it's promising that the models are both showing snow. We will likely see the model "windshield wiper effect" over the next 3-4 days. The models will show snow today and tomorrow--and initiate the hype machine--but then adjust and take the storm more to our south. But then over the weekend we'll see the models begin to show moderate snow again for Tuesday. This flip-flopping from the models is very typical of coastal storms at this time of year.

Clickbait alert. This is the American model projection for Tuesday.

Right now a big snow event is something fun to hope for, but the GSD Staff is not getting too excited (yet). If models begin to come in with high snow totals run after run--model projections come out every six hours--then we'll start to guide you about snow day chances on Tuesday. 

Think good snow thoughts, and we'll have more info soon.

Week of February 5: Dry and Sunny and Mild yet a Storm Looms in the Distance

Our stormy pattern has turned as Old Man Winter appears to be enjoying a mid-season break. Fortunately, it appears he's not going to take too much time off as many in the weather world are eyeing a late Monday/Early Tuesday snow event (Feb 12/13). A snow day in the week before the public schools tae their February break would not be a terrible turn of events.

Your vitamin D is going to get a big boost this week as we should see bright sun and clear skies until the end of the week. The pattern will be mid-30s during the day and mid-teens at night, which is good for artificial snow production at the facilities that need it. Get outside and enjoy the sun.

Delays and Closings for Monday, January 29

We have snow showers at the GSD Home Office and snow will end in a few hours. The following schools have reported delays or closings:

TWO-HOUR DELAY (updated 7:18 AM):

Adams-Cheshire

BART

Berkshire Country Day

Berlin (NY)

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Farmington River

Gabriel Abbott (Florida)

Hancock

Hillcrest
Hoosick Falls (NY)

Lee

Mount Greylock

North Adams
New Lebanon (NY)

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond

Southern Berkshire

Stamford (VT)

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller (Savoy)

Winter Storm: Sunday Evening Report

Big, heavy flakes are falling at the GSD Home Office (as of 9 PM) with about a half an inch to an inch of slush on the ground. Snow is beginning to accumulate on the roads.

We're going to cut to the chase: delays are still possible but we think a majority of schools will have a full day of school tomorrow (unlike last Wednesday). We'll have several hours of wet snow this evening until it tapers off to snow showers and light snow after midnight. Road crews should have enough time to get the roads clear in time for the regular start of the school day. Hill towns will still see higher totals, but valleys will be limited to 2 inches or so.

WNYT's snow map. Eastern hill towns have the best chance for delays/snow days.

But we do have one cancellation to report. Emma Miller in Savoy will be closed tomorrow. 

We'll run a more complete list tomorrow should more schools call in delays and snow days.

Winter Storm Warning & Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday/Monday, Jan. 28-29

Good morning! 

Half of Berkshire County is in a Winter Storm Warning, and half is in a Winter Weather Advisory. We are seeing snow now, but there's a good chance it will change to rain soon and then back to snow this evening.

There are two parts to the storm. The current part of the storm will bring snow then a warm-up and rain. As the secondary low pressure system forms off the coast later this afternoon, cold air from the north will get pulled into our area and that's when the changeover back to snow will occur.

Not enough snow for full snow days tomorrow, if this map proves to be accurate.

The problem is that the more potent part of the storm will occur during the day today. The less potent part will occur this evening into tomorrow morning.

So, all the factors being gathered together, we think that--if there even is a school day-shortening decision--Superintendents will go with a delay tomorrow, except for the high elevation towns on the east side of the county who could get full snow days (which you've heard before).

But we're still holding out hope for full snow days for many. If the storm over-performs, we could see 6-12 inches for the County. And as long as 5-6" are on the ground and it's still snowing when the Superintendents move into action tomorrow morning, we could see full snow days.

If the storm over-performs, then snow days are likely on Monday.

You can tell that there's still a lot of uncertainty with this event due to the relatively warm temps. But keep your ears and eyes open. The GSD Staff's agricultural conference continues today, so the next update will not be until this evening (between 8 and 9 PM).

Stay safe out there!

Winter Storm Watch for Sunday/Monday, January 29-30

We missed out on delays this morning (except for Stamford, VT), but we are very intrigued about the new developments for our late weekend storm. This afternoon (Friday) NWS Albany caught us off slightly off guard and threw out a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday into Monday.

The Watch duration is 6 AM Sunday to late morning Monday. The reason for the Watch is an increase in anticipated precipitation totals for the Berkshires. With 0.5" or more of liquid expected and a 10:1 liquid-to-snow ratio, NWS Albany decided to post the Watch.

The Watch can go one of two ways. We could get an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning, which means 6+ inches for the region. We could also transition to a Winter Weather Advisory, which means snow totals below the 6" threshold. 

NWS Boston

Higher elevations towns will get higher snow totals with this event because there will be too much air in the valleys for it to really pile up. But eventually the cold air will seep into the valley and allow those lower elevation towns to get at least 2-4 inches. A big uncertainty is how early the transition from rain to snow will occur in the valleys.

As always the timing is crucial. With the end of the storm expected to be around 10 AM Monday, the timing is good but not ideal. If the storm ends earlier than expected--which is often the case--then school children will get delays but not full snow days.

Given the information we have right now, we have a feeling that the Winter Storm Watch is only going to become a Winter Weather Advisory tomorrow except for high elevation towns on the east side of the County. This does not mean that we won't get snow days on Monday. Some schools will. But the majority of us will see delays.

At least that's what we're saying right now.

Just a heads up to the faithful GSD readers that the Staff will be at one of our winter agricultural conferences in Boston this weekend. We will still be monitoring the weather (duh), but we probably won't be able to put up a new post at this site until Sunday morning. 

If any big changes occur tomorrow, we'll throw a quick update on the socials--Facebook (@GreylockSnowDay) and Instagram (@greylock_snow_day).

Wishful Thinking: Friday Delay and Monday Snow Day

We have two school-shortening weather opportunities in the next few days.

This afternoon, NWS Albany issued a Winter Weather Advisory for early Friday morning due an ice threat. Before you get too excited for a delay, this Advisory is for high elevation towns (1500' and above). This means the hilltown elementary schools, Adams-Cheshire, and Central Berkshire would have the best chance for an ice delay.

NWS Albany ice forecast for Friday morning.

And we are keeping an eye or two on a developing snow situation for Sunday night into Monday. The timing looks really good, but the question is: will cold air move in quickly enough to allow the snow to pile up? Models from earlier today were showing a range of 3 inches (American) to 8 inches (European). The fact that both models are showing snow for Monday is encouraging.

The American model for Monday. If the timing is right, this could be just enough to cause snow days.

There's a lot that could still change with this late weekend storm, but our interest is definitely piqued at the GSD Office.

We'll run a list of delays tomorrow should we see a few.

Delays for Wednesday, Jan. 24

Light snow is still falling at the GSD Home Office and the radar shows sleet moving into the county for the next hour or so. Most schools in the County have opted for the delayed the start of school today, but a few have upgraded to the full snow day (!).

TWO-HOUR DELAY (updated: 8:44 AM):

Adams-Cheshire

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Waldorf

Berlin (NY)

Central Berkshire

Emma Miller

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock

Lee

Lenox
Mohawk Trail

Mount Greylock

New Lebanon (NY)

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Richmond

SNOW DAY:

BART

Hillcrest

Pittsfield

Stamford (VT)

Winter Weather Advisory -- Tuesday and Wednesday, Jan. 23-24

 A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect starting at noon today. The Advisory is good until 7 PM Wednesday, which means an increased chance for delays for schools.

There is not a lot of moisture with this storm, but because ice might get involved, NWS Albany decided to go with the Advisory. 

NWS Albany

It will be the higher elevation spots that have the better chance for a delay tomorrow (northeast mountain elementary schools; Central Berkshire; Adams/Cheshire). With air temps already above freezing today, we will see 1-2" of wet snow this afternoon (Tuesday) and then a period of icing (mainly sleet) before it changes over to all rain on Wednesday.

One reason for the increased chance of a delay: any snow/sleet today will help bring colder air down with it and drop the temperature to freezing or slightly under. For the Wednesday morning commute, temps will be around 30 in most locations in the Berkshires.

If there is any wintry precipitation at all tomorrow morning--even if it is very light--we could see many Superintendents going with a delay tomorrow to compensate for their decision last Tuesday not to cancel school. Conditions were not great in the afternoon that day and Supers do not want to make that mistake twice.

Stay tuned as there's a good chance a few districts will have delays tomorrow.

Snow This Week -- Jan. 22-26

It is winter, so the GSD Staff hopes you're enjoying the cold temps. The sub-freezing temps are keeping the snow around, and at least there is enough for sledding and some skiing.

As is often the case, we have good news and bad news for the week ahead. We could see a few more inches of snow on Tuesday, but that snow is going to change to rain on Wednesday and Thursday. There's not a lot of liquid associated with the snow portion so totals will be light, and it's going to be highly annoying to see the warm-up midweek and the return of mud season.

The Euro model's prediction for Tuesday afternoon snow.

As the precipitation moves in on Tuesday, there will be enough cold air at ground level to give us a period of snow and sleet. We could see 1-2 inches during the afternoon on Tuesday. Afternoon activities are definitely in jeopardy on Tuesday, especially if sleet mixes in. On Wednesday, the warm air will have lifted into our region and the precipitation will fall as rain. We are then expected to see rain on Wednesday and Thursday (and maybe even Friday morning) and temps soaring up into the high 40s. We're very unhappy with this development.

Even though it's only mid-January, we are starting to get the sense that we're running out of time for this winter to be a productive one. Right now Old Man Winter is getting a D- grade. He has a chance to turn it around--not unlike some high school seniors we may know--but time is of the essence. Hopefully we'll have better news in the next week or so as we round the corner and head into February.

Berkshire County Shut Out

Even though only two schools in Berkshire County had the full snow day today, the staff at GSD still stands by its 50% prediction for snow days today. If anything, 50% was too cautious as most Superintendents--if they were to answer honestly--probably would have kept students home or released them early due the road conditions in the afternoon. From firsthand experience, the roads were not great in Northern Berkshire County when the high-schoolers got let out. We also read reports that Pittsfield roads were bad during the afternoon.

The silver lining is that odds will move slightly in our favor the next time around. As they say: once bitten twice shy. Unfortunately, we're not sure Old Man Winter will be gnashing his teeth any time soon.

Model prediction for snow throughout the day on Friday.

Friday's snow will be very light and then we have our eye on a more potent storm midweek. Right now the American model is showing moderate snow for Wednesday but the Euro is not. We have deep concerns that the storm next week will be mostly rain, given the forecast for temps in the 30s. Of course we'll be monitoring it intently, but currently we have low confidence for a snow day next week.

Closings & Cancelled Afternoon Activities for Tuesday, Jan. 16

After a lull in the action this morning with spotty snow showers, snow is expected to pick up in intensity throughout the afternoon. The drive home from school will be slow in Berkshire County.

Superintendents showed surprising solidarity today and did not cave. Pretty much every school to our western, eastern, and northern border cancelled school for the day.

NO AFTER-SCHOOL ACTIVITIES (updated at 1:55 PM):

Central Berkshire

Emma Willard

Mount Greylock
Pittsfield

SNOW DAY 

Berkshire Waldorf
Berlin (NY)

Emma Miller
Hoosick Falls (NY)
Mohawk Trail
New Lebanon (NY)
Southwest Vermont SU

Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday, Jan. 16

Earlier today we said we'd update if there were any new and exciting develops, and guess what? There are some new and exciting developments.

First, a Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect between 10 PM this evening until 7 PM tomorrow. We're very surprised by the 10 PM start because that typically means snow will start around 11 PM or midnight. Snow on the ground and still falling when the Superintendent wakes up is never ever a bad sign.

Second, the models are indicating the track of the storm to be farther west and closer to the coast. This means more liquid precipitation for our area, which of course means more snow.

Third, it's going to be cold tonight--mid-teens--which means the snow to liquid ratio will be above the typical 10 inch-to-1 inch ratio. A quarter inch of liquid would typically yield 2-3 inches of snow, but with this cold air hanging about a quarter inch could get us to 4-5 inches.

A model projection for liquid precipitation for tomorrow. One inch of liquid should yield 15-18" of snow.

So, given those changes, we're going to bump up the chance for a full snow day to 50%. This means you have a 50% chance of a snow day due to the improved conditions. This also means that we think 50% of schools in the county will have a snow day.

Tomorrow morning we'll post a running list of school cancellations should Superintendents decide to call them in. 

Do your favorite snow dance tonight before going to bed to improve our chances!

Snowy Tuesday (Jan. 16)

The cold air is here. We dropped all the way to 9° at the GSD Home Office this morning, but temps will rise up into the mid-20s in advance of storm system that will pass by us to the south tomorrow.

We are seeing indications that there may be more snow on Tuesday than was expected a few days ago. NWS Albany is showing most of Berkshire County getting 3 inches tomorrow. (NWS Boston is showing a potential for as much as 6", but that's only if the storm way over performs.) 

But the timing is proving to be in an awkward middle zone. 

Snow could be falling for the run of the high school buses in South County, but most will not see snow on the ground until the elementary school buses are running. Light snow will continue for several hours before intensifying in the afternoon, making the return home from school challenging. 

This is going to be a very tricky call for Superintendents. Your more careful, conservative Super may gift their students with a full snow day. The rationale would be A) we haven't had many (or any) snow days; and B) I don't want to deal with the "why didn't you..." emails as a result of snow-covered roads at the time of dismissal. 

Your more "hearty New Englander" Superintendent will probably go with the full day of school. Their rationale is A) we just had a day off yesterday; and B) C'mon, people, it's only 3 inches of snow. Back in my day..., etc., etc. 

So, the GSD staff has scrambled up the Confidence Meter from yesterday. We now think that releases and snow days will be the calls tomorrow, but there is not a high chance of either happening. 

Even though the early release is like the "right" call for tomorrow, just remember that early releases are a giant headache. They work best when you know you have a big storm coming and you can call them the night before. Parents do not appreciate the day-of-the-storm early release call (unless they get to get out of work early as well (!)).

One thing you can pretty much bank on is that after school activities will be cancelled again tomorrow.

The NWS Boston "If the storm over performs" map. 

Stay alert. Maybe they'll be release calls tonight (unlikely). Maybe the snow starts earlier and we all get snow days (fingers crossed). We'll update if we learn anything new and noteworthy.

Snow This Week (Jan. 15-22)

It's not every day we get a emergency alert about snow squalls, and it was certainly merited. 

At the GSD Home Office, we had white out conditions from two separate squalls. As of 4 PM Sunday, we picked up 1.5" of snow. For the rest of the afternoon and evening we might see a scattered flake or two in Berkshire County, but accumulating snow for Sunday is likely over.

The noticeable trend is going to be the change in temperature as it will continue to plummet throughout the afternoon and evening. It was near 30 this morning in Williamstown, but we are expecting low teens by Monday morning. And according to the long range forecast, we will not get above freezing for another 9 days. This is great news for the ski areas and lovers of pond skating.

But we know you've read this far only for snow storm content. Here's what's coming up. It's not great news but it's not all bad either:

*Tuesday's morning commute could be messy. We won't get a lot of snow on Tuesday (1-3"), but NWS Albany is warning about the timing of the snow. So, there is a growing chance for delays on Tuesday morning.

*We could also see a round of light snow Friday into Saturday. A coastal storm will be forming, but it looks like it will go out to sea. Still, it will come close enough to our area to give us a few inches starting in the middle of the day on Friday. Early releases that day are highly unlikely.

The American model's projecting for next Friday's storm. It's probably too juiced for NJ and NYC, but you can see it's going to miss us to the south.

Right now the GSD Staff is saying it's a 30/70 proposition for delays on Tuesday. The key will be the timing, and we should have a better handle on the start time of the snow during the day tomorrow. Our worry is that it starts too late for delays and ends too early for releases.

Enjoy the Monday holiday, and hopefully we can get a few extra hours to sleep in on Tuesday.

Highly Active Pattern--Four Day Weekend?

Across the nation today the weather was bonkers. Avalanches, tornadoes, blizzards, floods--yeesh! It's dangerous out there.

Closer to home, we did see a spate of delays this morning. We thought we might see one or two, and those delays predictably came in the higher elevation towns on the east side of the County.

We will enjoy about 48 hours of calm before the next weather maker hits the region. Unfortunately, the next storm--late Friday into Saturday--will look a lot like yesterday's storm. The center of the storm will shoot up from the south, but it will go to our west. Whenever we are on the east side of a storm center, the air gets too warm and it leads to rain. So, sadly, we'll once again see snow at first (late Friday night) and then rain. Fortunately, it will be a fast mover and the rain should end mid-afternoon. We will see temps in the mid-40s on Saturday, but the cold air returns on Sunday.

The return of the cold air cold lead to a storm on Tuesday or Wednesday. We absolutely could be guilty of pre-storm hype for this one--we're not ashamed--but there are signs from the models of a snow day-inducing snowfall for Tuesday or Wednesday. The models are certainly not in agreement, but, in the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas, we are saying that there's a chance. 

The Euro for Wednesday (1/17) morning. This storm does not have to track that much farther to the north for us to enjoy a snow day.

Right now the Euro model is showing the storm tracking to our south and the Berkshires getting 2-4 inches of snow by daybreak Wednesday (see above). Yesterday, the models were showing more of a 6-8" storm for Tuesday into Wednesday so it's not trending in the right direction. There's a lot of variability and uncertainty, which likely means we'll get a big fat nothing-burger, but a more northerly turn to the storm center could make next week a 3-day week.

After that, we're seeing signals for yet another weekend storm. We have noted over the years that storms can come in threes, and a storm for the weekend of the 20th-21st would be our third weekend storm in a row. This storm would be all snow because there will be cold air in place.

The best case scenario next week is two snow days, Wednesday and Friday (highly unlikely). The worst case scenario would be a four-day week (Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday). Even in the worst case scenario we should get a base of snow that might stick around for a while.

The GSD Staff is amped up to bring you fresh content each day. Keep the faith, Flake Followers!