Storm Alert

Happy New Year, snow hounds!

With a new year, we have a new and exciting opportunity for snow, which we want to put it on your radar. We could see a moderate/heavy snow storm next weekend.

The potential for this storm will generate a lot of hype in the media because it's the first big one of the season and it could impact the Philly, NYC, and Boston metropolitan areas.

You need to resist the temptation to get too excited for this storm. We can't stress that enough. For one, we're seven days away from the predicted dumping of snow. And two, the snow will fall on the weekend, which is just so predictable for this really disappointing snow season. And why not play the reverse psychology game? If we all downplay it, then there's a chance we will pleasantly surprised next Sunday.

The reason that the snow hype machine will be cranked up to maximum NSPMs (news stories per minute) is--you know this if you are a frequent reader--the recent runs of the European and North American models. Yesterday they were more apart in their forecast, but today they are more in sync.

European model for next Sunday night.

North American model, slight later time frame.

Currently, the forecast is for 7-11 inches for the Berkshires. If the models can continue to stay in sync, then our chances for a moderate snow event next Sunday will continue to stay high. One trend to watch is a southerly shift in the snow (which is what the North American model was suggesting yesterday). If it does push south, we'll only see 2-4 inches in our areas.

Again, try not to fall prey to the hype. These models will change over the next five days. The storm could easily drift south. But let's keep an eye on it.

If This Rain Had Been Snow...

Today was a wild weather day with heavy rain and high winds that started Sunday night and are just starting to wrap up now (Monday night). We currently have river flood warnings for several areas, with waters expected to continue to rise overnight. While it's highly unlikely that we'll see widespread delays tomorrow due to river flooding, some isolated schools could get a shortened school day.

Whenever we get heavy rain in the winter months, people always fantasize about how much snow would have fallen if had it been cold enough. The rain-to-snow ratio is typically 1 inch to 10-12 inches. But that ratio doesn't really tell the whole truth. If it had been cold enough for snow, the air would be much drier, which would have lowered the amount of liquid with this storm. Still, 18 inches would not have been out of the question if cold air was in place.

The rest of this post is a very Grinchy outlook, so turn away if you're better off not knowing.

As for a white Christmas, that's not happening around here. Thursday and Friday will feel like winter with temps hovering around freezing both days--ski areas will be able to recoup some of their losses--but we are expected to shoot up into the 40s again starting on Christmas Eve. Vacation week looks like most days will be well over freezing. Bah humbug.

El Nino winters--we're in one in a big way--typically produce late season snow. So, it could easily be another 4 weeks until we see a shift in the pattern and colder air gains a stronger footing over the US.

Happy holidays, and we hope we have better news soon!

Monday Morning (Dec. 11) Report -- Delays and Closings

At the GSD Headquarters in Williamstown (elevation 700 feet), it is 33 degrees and we have half an inch of snow with a combination of rain/snow falling (as of 5:30 AM). Precipitation should come down for several more hours but the intensity may not be there for even delays.

Several schools to our west (Brunswick, Berlin, Hoosick Falls NY) and north have gone with delays today. 

We have a few delays to report (updated 5:54 AM):

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Hillcrest
Pittsfield

Monday (Dec. 11) Storm -- Evening Update

It sure doesn't feel like it's going to snow 3-6 inches tomorrow. With light rain and temps still in the 50s as of 5 PM Sunday, Spring seems like it's right around the corner.

But be assured that all this will change in a dramatic fashion when the storm front comes through. The rain will continue all night and the winds will pick up. As the temps get into the 30s, we'll see the changeover to snow. The big mystery is the timing of the changeover. Forecasters don't really know--we've seen as early as 3 AM and as late as 6 AM--so the snow day decision tomorrow morning is going to be based largely on the forecast.

Models this evening are now more in agreement but still showing a wide spread. The Euro is showing 2-7" south to north and the N. American model is showing 6-10" countywide. These numbers feel a little amped so 2-5 inches throughout the county is more reasonable. 

The most snow will fall in the northwest corner. The least amount will fall in the southeast corner. Mount Greylock, North Adams, Hoosac Valley districts and all the hill-town elementary schools (Clarksburg, Emma Miller, Gabriel Abbott) have the best chance for snow days. Pittsfield and Central Berkshire will be in the running for a snow day if the snow starts early enough. For South County districts (So. Berkshire, Berkshire Hills, Lee, Lenox), you're likely to see only a delay.

A couple of things we don't like about the storm are the warmth and the unpredictable nature of early season storms. The things we like about the storm are its strength and its timing.

The latest run of the Euro is coming around. The pink area in the northwest corner equals 7 inches.

Another huge factor is the mindset of your Superintendent. Historically, Supers are more lenient with the first storm. They haven't called one in a while, which means they haven't dealt with blowback from their constituents in some time. If this were storm number 4 or 5 and the snow days were starting to pile up (pun intended), then they would be more reluctant to call a snow day.

So, as long as it starts snowing by 5:30 or 6:00, we will see northern districts with snow days due to the forecast for 3-6 inches in about a five-hour period. There simply won't be time to clear the roads in time for the delayed start. Southern district schools will have to go with a delay due to the predicted low snow volume.

The big takeaway, then, is that there's room for optimism but don't get your hopes up. If you have a test or presentation or paper due, don't bank on a day off or an extra few hours to cram in some studying. It's wise to keep expectations low given the iffy-ness of the changeover time and the fact that it's not supposed to snow all day long.

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday, Dec. 11

In the battle between our two favorite models--the Euro and the North American--it looks like meteorologists are giving more credence to the North American model that we showed you yesterday.

NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires and Winter Storm Warnings for SouthernVermont and other parts north and west. The advisory now calls for a solid 3-8 inches of snow, and forecasters in Albany have hinted that the Advisory in the Berkshires could easily be upgraded to a Warning once a few more model runs come in. The storm is trending to a take more easterly line, which means colder air and more snow.

NWS Albany

With this uptick in the predicted snow totals, the plot thickens for Monday. The snow is still expected to begin around 6 AM tomorrow. Even though temps are in the 50s Sunday morning, the mercury will steadily drop throughout the day and night. The ground temperature will not get below freezing, but that will not prevent the much colder air aloft from producing snow. And because temps will be in the mid 30s when the snow begins to fall, it will be a heavy wet snow. Power outages are possible if the heavy wet snow accumulates quickly (which it might), but the windy conditions should shake the snow from tree limbs and minimize power problems.

The prediction for higher snow totals has perhaps made Superintendents' decisions a smidge easier in that calling off school will be more justified due to the forecast for 3-8 inches starting at the absolute worst time for the morning bus runs. The timing and rising snow totals are definitely working in our favor. 

We at GSD think that we will see the full gamut tomorrow--snow days, delays, and full school days. Students in western areas of Berkshire county and higher elevation districts have an even chance for the full snow day. South County schools will likely have a full day or delayed start.

This map is essentially clickbait, but it is somewhat useful in showing how much potential this storm has. It shows the highest end of snow predictions. This amount of snow is in the realm of possibility but unlikely.

Even though the storm is trending in the right direction, we might be in the middle of the "windshield wiper effect" that sometimes happens with the models. Light or moderate snow predictions made a few days ago suddenly grow much higher a day or two before the storm but then get re-adjusted back down as meteorologists start to factor in the short term models. It's a pattern we've seen dozens of times before, which is why 1-4 inches is more likely than 6-8.

We'll do one more post later today once we get more information to pin down the exact track and specific timing of the start of the snow.

Potential Mess (and Delays and Snow Days) for Monday

We have a developing winter weather situation for Monday that is potentially going to present a nightmare decision scenario for Superintendents.

Most of you probably know that it's going to rain buckets on Sunday. The Berkshires could see close to 2" of water and flood watches have been announced.

NWS Albany Forecast

As this big storm front moves through Sunday afternoon and night, the temperature is going to start to drop. And as the temp drops, the liquid will change over to snow. It's going to snow on Monday. We probably won't get a lot--mostly in the 1-2" range with higher totals in high elevation towns--but the timing could really tricky.

The American model (GFS). Wouldn't that be nice. Highly, highly unlikely.

Heavy wet snow is forecasted to start falling moderately somewhere between 6 and 8 AM. It could very likely be one of those situations where it's too late to delay buses, but once the buses run, the roads begin to grease up significantly. Delaying school by two hours will give road crews some time to treat the roads, but the snow could still be coming down just as moderately at the later start time. And, to top it all off, the snow will likely end around noon so the forecast won't support giving students a full snow day for what ultimately will be a 1.5-inch snow storm. 

A much saner prediction from the Euro model.

So, we're looking at a 6-hour window for snow on Monday. It could start at 6 AM; it could start at 8 AM. For Superintendents, its onset is in that window that makes almost any decision a criticizable one. 

We think that some school heads will not want to deal with the messy commute and they will keep students home for a few hours. We also will not rule out one or two districts going with the snow day. Keep on eye on the Confidence Meter for the next 36 hours.

Stay tuned! More tomorrow. 

Snow Globe Snow

Greylock Snow Day offers apologies for anyone caught off guard by the bonus half inch of snow that fell throughout the day in Berkshire County. Except for very high elevation towns, the roads were fine today as the temp never really got too much under freezing.

Today's precipitation was classic snow globe snow. It came down almost all day at GSD Headquarters, and it really got the staff in the holiday mood. The holiday tunes in the office were just a little but louder, and everyone seemed just a little more caffeinated.

Unfortunately, the positive vibes in the office will not be transferring to the weather maps and models any time soon. Tomorrow (Thursday) we could still see a leftover flurry, but mostly it will be dry and slightly warmer than today.

The big weather news this weekend is a strong storm heading our way for Sunday/Monday. The big snow associated with this storm will be well to our west. Around here, though, we will see heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as the front comes through. Up to 2" of rain is possible. Just imagine if that were snow (16-24 inches)! Because the rain will be heavy and intense Sunday evening, strong winds will also be present. There is the potential for power outages Sunday night into Monday, which we will be closely monitoring.

As the storm front slides past us, temps on Monday will drop and leftover precipitation could change over to snow on Monday. There's a very small chance that the morning commute on Monday is messy, but the changeover to snow may happen too late for any impact to the length of the school day.

Euro snow prediction for Monday. Highly optimistic. We wish we could endorse this forecast but we can't.

The chances for a snow day before December break remain slim. We can't rule out a renegade storm the week before break (Dec. 18-22), but next week (Dec. 11-15) will start our dry and should remain so.

Keep the faith. Big snows will fall eventually.

(If you are interested, Greylock Snow Day merch is available and should deliver by the holidays. Here's the link!)