It came a little later than expected, but a Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for the County. This means 6+ inches within a 24-hour period is virtually a guarantee.
We are pleased to report that a few early releases and one closure for Monday:
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Waldorf (CLOSED)
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott
Lee
Lenox
Richmond Consolidated
Stamford (VT)
We haven't received the upgrade from Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm Morning at of 8:30 AM, but we should see that happen shortly.
Two days ago, this is what NWS Albany was forecasting for snow for our area:
And this morning we wake up to this:
We've also seen an adjustment to the predicted start of the snow. It should start to snow in South County tomorrow around 9 or 10 AM, and then gradually move north. For folks on the Mass/VT border, expect snow to begin falling no later than 3 PM. For the few schools in session, Monday just might be an early release day.
Don't forget to follow on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram for sporadic and shorter updates. We'll have a longer post with more forecast maps later this afternoon or tonight.
Well, right on cue, the windshield wiper effect has kicked in, and here is the latest forecast map from NWS Albany:
That's quite a change from yesterday's dire 1" prediction for Berkshire County.
Should the models continue to push the storm center closer to the coast--which is the reason our snow totals have gone up considerably--we will see this Watch become a Warning by midday on Sunday. A quote we really enjoyed earlier today out of Albany is that "this storm system has overachiever potential given recent model trends."
So, when will the first flakes fall? Right now--and this could of course change a few hours in either direction--the storm should start early Monday afternoon in South County and later in the afternoon in North County. It should snow all Thursday night and for a good portion of the day on Tuesday.
Snow days and remote days are now much more likely for Tuesday. Given that snow will be falling on Tuesday morning and continuing throughout the day, delays seems unlikely. Back in the old days, we would still be cautious about going all in for a snow day for all students of Berkshire County just yet, and we would likely set the Confidence Meter at a healthy 66%.
Based on the snow days and remote days called last week by our local Superintendents, we will have a smattering of snow days--smaller mountain towns, Lenox--and the rest will go fully remote (if they aren't they there already). And there's an outside chance that we could see a benevolent Superintendent call a snow day for students who are fully remote.
And just for fun, we'll pass this nugget along. We've seen some chatter about the Canadian model for this storm and it's a doozy. Before you dismiss it entirely, the Canadian model did predict December's big storm very accurately, so maybe the Canadian is only good at blockbuster storms? We'll just have to see.
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| Bring it on, Canadian model! |
Another night in January, another Wind Chill Advisory.
Temps are solidly in the single digits tonight and will bottom out around zero tomorrow morning. The best we'll do on Saturday is the mid-teens, but the sun will peek through the haze and, for the most part, tomorrow will be a very cold but pleasant day.
The calm before the storm?
That, Flake Followers, is the $64,000 question. The bad news is that today's runs of the models take the storm farther to our south and east. We are not pleased with this development.
The good news is that we've seen this model fickleness before. We've written about the "windshield wiper effect" in past years (a tip of the cap to legendary meteorologist Bernie Rayno of Accuweather), but if you're new to this space or you need a refresher, here's the general gist:
Phase 1: For many storms we often see a strong, snow-heavy forecast six or seven days before a storm.
Phase 2: Three or four days before a storm, the models get confused and show less agreement and less snow for a storm.
Phase 3: Miraculously, the models "correct" themselves and the models return to a heavier snow forecast 36 hours (+/- 12 hours) prior to the arrival of the snow.
We're certainly hoping that we're seeing the windshield wiper effect for this storm. Southern New England and Boston certainly look like they will feel the brunt of this storm's energy no matter what the track is, but, unfortunately, there's still a decent chance that the Berkshires will be on the outside looking in for this nor'easter.
Just to give you a sense of the range of possibilities, here's what NWS Albany is already showing for Monday:
We'll keep this short tonight.
We have a Wind Chill Advisory in place right. Tomorrow morning will be particularly unpleasant to be outside for very long with -15 to -25 degree wind chill values. Cover up and avoid staying outside for more than 30 minutes at a time.
Very cold air is here to stay for a few days. The high temp on Friday will be in the low teens, and we could get all the up to a balmy 15 degrees on Saturday.
All this cold air is great news for our developing BIG STORM coming at the beginning of the week. The models are still a little inconsistent right now, but in particular we like this forecast map, courtesy of meteorologist Brent Watts:
Twenty percent chance for a 12+" snowfall doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but we don't typically see values this high this many days out in front of a storm. What it means is that it's a great indicator that we're in for moderate-to-heavy snow storm for Monday and Tuesday.
Six years ago yesterday, the city of Boston began an incredible snowy period. In a mere 20 days--from January 26 to February 15--Boston received 84.1 inches of snow. That's 7 feet of snow.
The reason for that brief trip down memory lane is to remind us that there's a lot of winter left, and despite the meager snow that seemingly has fallen so far, we're actually right around or normal totals for the end of January
The good news is that we're trending in the right direction with our snow totals. We picked up close to 6" of nuisance snow all last week. Yesterday and this morning, we added another 4-6" (depending on your elevation). We had a long dry period at the start of this month, but conditions could change drastically soon.
Right now, the northeast meteorology world is all abuzz about a possible nor'easter for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Today's runs of the models--especially the Euro--is showing a monster storm for southeastern New England, eastern Mass, and southern New Hampshire and Maine.
Check out the European model for Tuesday:
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| Euro model forecast for the Monday/Tuesday storm. This will assuredly change in the next few days. |
That, my friends, is a big one. Even though this prediction does not show a direct hit for the Berkshires, it still would be a sizable storm. And a 50-100 mile shift northward in the track of the storm would probably double the snow totals you see predicted here. Fingers crossed.
But then there's the North American model, which has a 50/50 chance of being correct. Here's what it is predicting:
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| The North American model takes the storm further south and east, as of now. |
The North American model really isn't that different from the Euro. It also shows a possible dry slot for the Berkshires, but it pushes the center of the storm further south and east, thus greatly reducing our potential snow totals. If we trust the North American model, then this storm will be a frustrating fizzle.
This is the state of modern meteorology. The Euro vs. the North American. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts vs the Global Forecast System. The ECMWF vs the GFS. For some storms we root for the Euro; for others we root for the GFS. And it's perfectly okay to change teams from storm to storm.
So, if you've made it this far with this post, then you know we all need to jump on Team Euro right now. And it wouldn't hurt if this storm were to track a little more northward if we hope to ensure a solid snow base for the entire month of February.
Several updates coming in the days ahead.
We picked up another inch after midnight--and it's still coming down (6:45 AM)--so our grand total at the Home Office in Williamstown is currently 4", which is spot on what the models and forecasters predicted.
We do have several mountain town elementary school delays, closings and remote days to report this morning. Here's what we know of so far. We'll update as new announcements come in:
SNOW DAY:
Lenox
Gabriel Abbott
Rowe
TWO-HOUR DELAY:
Berkshire Montessori
Child Care of The Berkshires -- Transportation delayed 2 hours
Hancock
MCLA (opening at 10 AM)
REMOTE DAY:
Emma Miller
Emma Willard
Snow is definitely going to fall in the Berkshires on Tuesday. Expect light snow to fall early in the afternoon and continue overnight. The snow should almost be finished falling by daybreak on Wednesday, but there should be enough snow on the ground to delay the start of some schools or force schools into a fully remote day.
Weather experts are calling for 3-6 inches for the Berkshires. South County will be on the low end of the snow range, while towns like Clarksburg, Monroe, and Florida will be on the higher end.
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| Some folks in Berkshire County could move into the yellow zone when it's all said and done. Image courtesy of NWS Albany. |
The worst time to be out on the roads on Tuesday will be between 5 PM to 9 PM.
And we're still seeing signals of a much bigger storm in about a week. Right now the models are predicting the biggest snowfall of 2021 but nowhere near the dumping of snow we got in December.
Fun fact: it snowed six straight days last week. Monday through Saturday, we picked up anywhere from a dusting to 1.5 inches each day. All said, at the Home Office in Williamstown we picked up 5" of snow throughout the week, and that was just enough to make the nordic skiers very happy in this part of the world.
Lots of good news is on the horizon for those who enjoy the outdoors this time of year. The storm we wrote about last week--the one expected to come on Tuesday--has risen from the ashes. The models initially forecasted 4-6 inches, then they pushed it well to our south with very little snow, but now they're back saying we can expect 2-6 inches in the Berkshires on Tuesday into Wednesday.
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| NWS Albany says get out the shovels for Tuesday (Jan. 26). |
The bulk of the snow will fall Tuesday afternoon and night. With plenty of cold air in place, this snow will be dusty and fluffy and could pile up quickly. We will not all be surprised to see some high elevation towns (especially in northwest Berkshire County) exceed 6 inches.
We expect a Winter Weather Advisory for the County at some point tomorrow given how the models are trending.
As for bigger events, we're going to just miss a big one on Thursday/Friday as that storm will track out to sea. But based on what we've been reading for the past two days, meteorologists are getting giddy about a robust storm for the first two days of February (Monday/Tuesday next week).
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| A promising Euro model forecast for Tuesday, Feb. 2. |
We really are getting sick and tired of telling you, "The big one's coming next week," and we're sure you are, too. But this week's Tuesday storm should tide us over for a few days, and then we can start doing our snow dances for a legitimate storm the following week.
Temps this week will be cold but relatively seasonal except for Friday, which will be downright uncomfortable. Highs will be in the mid-teens.
While we can't say definitively that we've turned the corner for winter weather, we can say that the signal light is on and the brakes are being applied.
We woke up again today to another round of light snow. We measured close to 2" around 10:30 at the Home Office in Williamstown. Add in yesterday's 1.2" and Saturday's 1.5" of slush and that's a decent haul for the long weekend.
This week you can expect a lot of gray (still) and chances for snow showers pretty much every day. Any accumulations would be very light but might be enough to coat the roads.
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| Snow accumulation prediction by the Euro model, as of midnight Tuesday (the 26th). A ski country dream scenario. |
The temperature is the area where we'll see the most variance. We will still be stuck in the mid-30s for highs Monday and Tuesday, and then we'll drop to the upper 20s for two days before returning to the mid-30s by Friday. Then, next weekend is when we'll see a real change to winter temps. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 20s and lows will be around 10, and that pattern will stick around for all of next week.
As for more substantial snow, we now have our eyes set on a Monday night/Tuesday storm. Both the Euro and the North American models are showing a storm in the 4-8" range. That both models are similar a week out is a good sign, but this event will definitely require extensive monitoring as we get closer to it.
The higher up you live in the Berkshires, the better chance you have of seeing measurable snow this evening and Saturday. The National Weather Service over in Albany announced a Winter Weather Advisory early this afternoon with the potential for 2-5 inches of snow by 10 AM.
The precipitation will stream in from south late tonight. It will probably start as rain for most in the county before changing over to mixed precipitation and then a period of snow. How long the precipitation comes down as snow will largely be determined by the elevation of your town. It's hard to say for sure, but 1200 feet seems to be a dividing line. Below 1200 feet, don't expect much. Above 1200', you could see up to 5 inches.
Whether you see snow or not, tomorrow morning is going to be wet, slushy and windy. We could see gusts approaching 40 mph as we near daybreak.
Unfortunately, this post will be relatively short as we don't have much to report about the weather this week. But the next few weeks could be a-whole-nother ball game.
This week, temps will be creeping up to "above normal" levels (40s by Thursday), and we'll continue to see below normal precipitation levels. We might see a few flurries here or there Monday, but the chances are slim. The rest of the week will be dry, with perhaps some kind of light disturbance coming in for the weekend.
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| Accuweather doing it's best to keep hope alive. |
But take heart that there is still a lot of meteorological chatter about snow events for mid- and late January. The models show a chance for plowable snow next Monday/Tuesday. And from there the weather pattern will turn colder (highs in the 20s) and more stormy.
We know we promised an active early January a few weeks ago, but we're going to push that prediction back a few weeks. Now we think the weeks of January 18 and 25 will be productive. And we really mean it this time!
We'll let you know if we see anything more definitive and more promising.
If it's January 2021, then there must be a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires. Early this afternoon, NWS Albany posted our second WWA of the weekend. This one begins at 1 AM tomorrow, and the storm should end well before the Monday morning commute.
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| Mixing things up. An NWS Boston/Norton snow map for tomorrow. |
Expectations are for 3-5" of snow throughout the county. This time around, South County could see the higher totals, especially in the southeast quadrant along the Connecticut border.
Because the bulk of the snow will conclude shortly after midnight tomorrow, we do not foresee travel issues for Monday morning for the reduced number of county school buses that will be operating.
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| Earlier than we thought a few days ago... |
After tomorrow's event, we are eagerly anticipating a few opportunities for much bigger snowstorms next week and beyond. Some models are showing a rather large coastal storm (i.e nor'easter) for the January 12-14 period. It's silly to put too much stock in that forecast, but what we do know almost assuredly is that we're going to enter an active period with plenty of cold air in place for the next few weeks.
The early-middle part of January should be stormy.
Happy New Year! To celebrate the arrival of 2021, NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire county, starting at 7 PM tonight (Friday) and ending by 11 AM tomorrow.
This storm is a going to present a stew of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain for the Berkshires. Most folks should get 1-2 inches of snow/sleet, and in the higher elevations by the Vermont border, we could see up to 5 or 6 inches.
The only real change we've seen to the forecast is higher snow totals forecasted for areas to our north.
As for the Sunday storm, the models have made some adjustments and--as predicted--and have come into great agreement. The Euro model radically moved away from the 7-10" forecast from a few days ago and now only shows 2-3 inches for the Berkshires (with more snow to our south). The North American model has come around and now also shows 2-3 inches. So, that's probably the best we can expect Sunday night, with an outside chance of those totals coming up to 4-5 inches in the next few runs of the models. The timing of the snow does look as if it could impact the morning commute on Monday.
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| Not a lot of specifics from Accuweather, but we like where we set up with this forecast map. |
That's all we have for now. If you have to go out Saturday morning, be on the lookout for ice especially untreated roads.
