Storm Diamond Update: Midday Wednesday

We're now under 48 hours until Diamond is upon us. We don't have too much new news to report, but here's what we are offering at midday on Wednesday:

1. The European model (which accurately predicted Sandy's rage) has been reliable this winter so we're favoring that model. In that scenario, we will have snow in the 10-14 inch range, with possible higher amounts.

2. The US model sets up a less potent scenario. Still, Western Massachusetts seems to be in a perfect position because the US model still has us getting 6-12 inches. It would appear that as long as either model is correct, our area is in the serious snow fall zone.

3. We don't foresee widespread cancellations on Thursday night. Because the storm will start right around the time Superintendents need to make their call for the day, it's unlikely they'll greenlight a snow day the night before. If the storm speeds up a few hours, which isn't likely, then some districts could decide to throw in the towel early.

4. Best case scenario is a snow day announced the night before. Good scenario is a regular, ol' fashioned snow day called at 5:45 am (not 6:30, dear Superintendent!). Worst case scenario is the dreaded but not too unpleasant early release called at 5:45 am. The early release is the riskiest of the calls for Superintendents because of the threat of inch-per-hour snows. Even by 10 am roads would be hazardous.

5. The wind could be a factor. Blizzard warnings are not out of the question. To remind you of the requirements of a blizzard warning: 1) Frequent gusts or sustained winds of 35 mph or more; 2) Heavy snow for a period of 3 or more hours; 3) reduction of visibility to 1/4 mile because of the blowing snow. We're not saying this is going to happen for our area (perhaps seacoast New Hampshire and Maine), but the "bombogenesis" that could occur could might ramp up the winds to blizzard or near blizzard conditions.

6. There may be some very light snow very late tomorrow night not really related to the storm. This snow will only provide a dusting--don't get overly excited if you see snow around midnight. The big storm would be several hours away.

7. Games and activities for Friday night are in serious jeopardy. Schools should consider moving games to Thursday night or Saturday night.

8. We're likely in the "too good to be true" stage of this storm. Something will happen to put this storm in peril. This is what makes watching weather a great spectator sport.

We'll update later tonight. Keep your eyes open and do that snow dance!