The Vacation Extender: Nor'easter of Feb. 22/23

There has been little change to the forecast overnight, which means a big storm will be hitting the Berkshires. 

NWS Boston

Although we won't be in the jackpot zone--those honors go to southeastern New England--we still are expected to see 8-12". By our calculations, that is more than enough to cancel school on Monday.

The three big factors working in our favor: 1) Moderate and high snow totals; 2) Perfect timing; 3) High winds on Monday.

The snow is expected to start between 8 and 11 PM. It will snow first in South County and then gradually push northward. We may see a few flakes and even a light accumulation during the day today, but that is just bonus snow before the coastal storm really starts to intensify later in the day.

Meteorologists are expecting the heaviest snow to fall in the early hours of Monday, with rates of 1-2" per hour possible. It will definitely be snowing in the "golden hour" (4-5 AM) when Superintendents rise and determine the fates of hundreds of students and their families (at least for that day).

As we noted yesterday, we can not underestimate the wind with this storm and how difficult visibility is going to be Monday morning. Sustained 20 mph winds with gusts into the 40s will lead to white out conditions. There aren't too many bus companies that are going to willingly put their drivers out there in white out conditions.

NWS Albany

One factor that might work against some students is a sharp snow cut-off line on the northern edge of the storm. This cut-off line is currently forecasted to be in Vermont, but a slightly more southerly track could bring that cut-off line into Northern Berkshire county. South County schools will still be safe and well below that dreaded line.

At this juncture the GSD Staff is much more optimistic about this storm and its potential to extend public school students' vacations one more day. In fact, we expect several Superintendents to make their decision tonight.

The Staff will be monitoring things all day, and we'll do one more report in the late afternoon. Get the high snow boots out and have the shovels ready!

Major Northeast Storm -- Sunday/Monday, Feb. 22/23

As Ron Burgundy would say, "Boy, that escalated quickly."

As soon as we pressed "publish" on this morning's update on the Winter Storm Watch, NWS Albany came in over the top and upgraded our Watch to a Warning. The impetus for the heightened concern about this storm most likely resulted from the latest run of the NAM, which gives meteorologists more fine-tuned and shorter-range predictions. The NAM showed a more northerly track for the storm and higher precipitation rates.

The current models are now showing 5-12 inches of snow with the lesser amount in the northwest corner of Berkshire County and the greater amount in the southeast corner.

We still think there will be a "market correction" on these snow totals before the first flakes fall tomorrow, but this nor'easter is definitely trending in a more northerly direction.

The Euro AI-supported model. This would be enough for many schools to have full snow days.

As for snow days on Monday, the chances of them are also trending in a more northerly direction. As long as South County gets 6+ inches, there's little chance schools south of Pittsfield will have school. Snow days for schools north of Pittsfield might not quite have the volume of snow to merit full snow days. But the excellent timing of the storm could easily lead to delays.

The big X factor for this storm is going to be the wind. As this nor'easter strengthens just off the mid-Atlantic coast, it is going to intensify and generate strong winds. Coastal areas from Delaware to the north shore of Massachusetts have Blizzard Warnings in place. Here's a reminder on the conditions that need to be met for a Blizzard warning: For a 3+ hour period, snow must reduce visibility to less than a 1/4 mile and sustained winds must be over 35 mph.

Image courtesy of the Boston Globe.

In the Berkshires we will not get to blizzard-level conditions, but we still will need to deal with a ferocious and gusting wind. Gusts into the 40 mph range could occur midday on Monday, making visibility a real issue. If we do end up with a clean sweep for snow days for Berkshire County schools, it will largely be due to the wind.

Sometimes we ask you to root for ice. For this storm--if you're keen to have a snow day--you need to root for wind.

Further updates coming on Sunday!

Winter Storm Watch -- Sunday/Monday, Feb. 22-23

At the GSD Home Office, we tacked on 5 more inches to our seasonal snow total of 44.2". But the big news is a developing coastal storm that could impact school on Monday.

The last two weather-makers were clippers that came in from the west/northwest. This Sunday/Monday storm, though, will be a good old-fashioned coastal storm. That means it has much more moisture associated with it and could produce a moderate to heavy snowfall, especially for South County.

NWS Albany has put up a Winter Storm Watch that begins Sunday morning and ends Monday afternoon. The long-ish duration of the watch means that snow could pile up.

But there's a lot of uncertainty still about the track of the storm. Should it continue to trend more northerly, we will see the Watch upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. If the storm flattens out and heads more out to sea, we may see the Watch cancelled or turned into Winter Weather Advisory for lighter snow amounts.

The County's last clean sweep of snow days back on January 26 was a slam dunk and most Superintendents called in the snow day the day before. Such is not the case for this storm. The cut-off line between 5-7" and 1-2" will be fairly distinct, so this will be a storm that we'll have to wait out until Monday morning.

The current position of the GSD Staff on this storm is "less confident" (but that is always subject to change!). South County schools will have a much better chance of snow days than North County schools. The timing looks really good so delays and full snow days are very much in play. But we could see a scenario where districts like North Adams, Mount Greylock and Hoosac Valley have a full day of school, and Southern Berkshire has the day off. There could be that much difference in predicted snow amounts south to north.

As for the models, take a look below:

Euro

North American

Short-range NAM

You can see that there's still some discrepancy between the Euro and the North American. Connecticut and Rhode Island schools are definitely looking at full snow days, but it's still a little iffy for our entire County. The NAM does tend to run a little hot, so its 8-12" prediction is almost assuredly too high.

Much more to come on this developing very interesting situation.