Major Northeast Storm -- Sunday/Monday, Feb. 22/23

As Ron Burgundy would say, "Boy, that escalated quickly."

As soon as we pressed "publish" on this morning's update on the Winter Storm Watch, NWS Albany came in over the top and upgraded our Watch to a Warning. The impetus for the heightened concern about this storm most likely resulted from the latest run of the NAM, which gives meteorologists more fine-tuned and shorter-range predictions. The NAM showed a more northerly track for the storm and higher precipitation rates.

The current models are now showing 5-12 inches of snow with the lesser amount in the northwest corner of Berkshire County and the greater amount in the southeast corner.

We still think there will be a "market correction" on these snow totals before the first flakes fall tomorrow, but this nor'easter is definitely trending in a more northerly direction.

The Euro AI-supported model. This would be enough for many schools to have full snow days.

As for snow days on Monday, the chances of them are also trending in a more northerly direction. As long as South County gets 6+ inches, there's little chance schools south of Pittsfield will have school. Snow days for schools north of Pittsfield might not quite have the volume of snow to merit full snow days. But the excellent timing of the storm could easily lead to delays.

The big X factor for this storm is going to be the wind. As this nor'easter strengthens just off the mid-Atlantic coast, it is going to intensify and generate strong winds. Coastal areas from Delaware to the north shore of Massachusetts have Blizzard Warnings in place. Here's a reminder on the conditions that need to be met for a Blizzard warning: For a 3+ hour period, snow must reduce visibility to less than a 1/4 mile and sustained winds must be over 35 mph.

Image courtesy of the Boston Globe.

In the Berkshires we will not get to blizzard-level conditions, but we still will need to deal with a ferocious and gusting wind. Gusts into the 40 mph range could occur midday on Monday, making visibility a real issue. If we do end up with a clean sweep for snow days for Berkshire County schools, it will largely be due to the wind.

Sometimes we ask you to root for ice. For this storm--if you're keen to have a snow day--you need to root for wind.

Further updates coming on Sunday!