Friday Delays Possible for North County

Winter is in its stretch drive, which means we do not have too many more cracks at delays, snow days, and releases.

But Friday presents a slim opportunity for two-hour delays for some districts in northern Berkshire County. The Alberta Clipper is on our doorstep--snow should start/have started by 6 PM--and it is expect to drop a max of 5 inches of snow.

NWS Albany forecast.

The higher elevations will get the higher amounts of snow. Clarksburg, Florida, Savoy, New Ashford, Lanesboro all appear to be in line for 3-4 inches with only 1-2 inches in other southern locations. Unfortunately, it looks as if the snow will end between 3 and 4 AM, which should give road crews the chance to clear roads in time for the early bus runs.

We wish these end times were later.

Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, North Adams, Hancock, and the mountain elementary schools have a higher chance. Pittsfield, Central Berkshires, and Richmond could also eke out a delay. But it is more likely that all these students will have a full day of school rather than a delay. As we stated yesterday, the high winds associated with this storm will produce significant blowing and drifting of snow, which could prolong the clean-up time and raise chances for delays.

We do have one Friday cancellation to report: BART will be closed tomorrow.

We'll run a list bright and early tomorrow if any Superintendents decide to go with a delayed opening.

Alberta Clipper = Friday Delays?

We apologize for not posting immediately after the big bust of 2024 on Tuesday. What a massive letdown. It's rare to see the models so wildly misleading just 24 hours before the storm is supposed to hit. It definitely shakes our faith in the models. At least temporarily.

We know you will be skeptical given the Tuesday debacle, but it seems a few North County schools could have a delay on Friday. An Alberta Clipper is moving in from the northwest Thursday night and will leave a few inches of snow on the ground. There are many questions with this minor snow event: Will the snow last until the morning commute on Friday? Will road crews have enough time to clear the roads? Will Superintendents throw students a bone the day before vacation?

NWS Albany

The meteorological prediction is for snow to start around 6 PM (Thurs.) and end around 7 AM on Friday. North County could see 2-3 inches with more in the higher terrains (northeast mountain towns, especially). Farther south we'll see 1-2 inches.

Despite the performance of the models regarding the nor'easter early in the week, Alberta Clippers have less variability and are easier to predict. For example, according to NWS Albany, the high-end and low-end predictions for this storm are 3-4" on the high end and 1-2" inches on the low end. That's not that much different from what is currently being predicted.

A sneaky X-factor "exclusive" that you'll only find at GSD: High winds are expected with this clipper. That means more blowing snow, which will give the perception that it's snowing harder than it actually is. The blowing snow could tip the decision and give some students delays.

So, the districts that were supposed to be the big losers on Tuesday could be the winners on Friday. Mount Greylock, Hoosac Valley, and the mountain elementary schools as well as Stamford and Mount Anthony in Vermont could see delays. Down county we see diminishing chances for Pittsfield and Central Berkshires with even more remote chances for delays for Lenox, Lee, Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills.

This week's disappointing snow news is definitely lessened by the welcome week of vacation public schools have coming up. We'll take a few days off ourselves, but if any storms kicks up that could impact travel during the week, we'll share our thoughts.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: From Bad To Worse

This storm is now more likely to be a bust than one that affects the length of the school day. Even for South County the forecast is growing grimmer by the hour.

One thing we hear meteorologists talk about is that often the long term models can be way off, and the short term models tend to be accurate. Well, the short term models are showing a decreasing amount of snow for everyone.

So, unfortunately, we're going to scale back expectations yet again. We now think it's 35/65 in South County, limited in the central districts, and almost no chance in the northern districts. 

This is one of those short term model projections. This scenario would qualify as a "major bust."

With the start of the storm not expected until 6 or even 7 AM, Superintendents are going to have a hard time making the snow day call based on already dwindling snow projection numbers. We think Superintendents are, in fact, willing participants--given how few snow days they've called--but the facts are not going to lie: there just won't be enough justification for a full day off.

This does not mean the morning commute is going to be great. Snow should have started by the high school bus runs, especially south. Travel will be slow by the time the elementary school students need to report. Delays are possible but less likely because it will still be snowing at the later start time.

Do your favorite snow dance and pray to the Snow Gods, but do not be surprised if you have a full day of school tomorrow.