Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Bad News for North County

The Winter Storm Warning is still in effect for South County, and the Watch is still hanging on for dear life in North County, but this storm is definitely headed south literally and metaphorically.

Many professional weather folks were surprised to see the modeling of the storm change so rapidly early this morning. What looked like a sure-fire 6" storm for all of the County suddenly turned into a partial bust. 

The American model for tomorrow. Not great!

Boston and Springfield have already cancelled classes for tomorrow, but we think most Berkshire County Superintendents will wait it out until tomorrow to see if and when the snow starts to fall.

Despite the discouraging runs of the models this morning, South County schools should still be in line for full snow days. We're seeing many maps of a projected 3-6 inches. And the timing is perfect so Berkshire Hills, Southern Berkshire, Richmond, and even Lenox and Lee should be enjoying a day off.

Given the timing and how messy the morning commute could be, we won't be surprised to see Pittsfield and Central Berkshire get the day off as well but it's in no way a certainty. We've had snow days with only 2-3" of snow this year, so odds are 50/50 for the middle of the county.

Mount Greylock, North Adams, and Hoosac Valley could very well be the big losers. There's going to a sharp cut-off with the snow line. Some maps are showing 1-3 inches in the northwest corner, and others are even showing no snow for Williamstown and North Adams. That's a cruel twist in this relatively snow-less winter.

Simply put: the farther south and east you go, the better chance for a snow day. The farther north and west you go, the lesser chance for a snow day.

Next update: Monday, late afternoon.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Snow Days Likely

Good morning, Flake Followers!

It is certainly looking more and more likely that students in the area will be enjoying a snow day on Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch was expanded to Northern Berkshire as well as Southern Vermont, which means the expected track of the storm is more northerly. And remember, as the wise old staffers at GSD say, "the norther the better"™.

The things working in our favor:

*Enough cold air in place.
*Spectacularly perfect timing--snow starting around 3:00 AM and heavy snow expected throughout the morning on Tuesday.
*A high level of liquid is associated with this storm. More liquid = more snow.

What we don't like:

*It's a fast mover--probably no more than 12 hours of snow fall.
*There could be a significant cut-off line for the northern edge of the storm. The northwest corner of the Berkshires might only see 3-5 inches. The only school districts that could be affected by this cut-off would be Mount Anthony and Mount Greylock. Everyone else should be fine.

Widespread snow days are likely due to the anticipated heavy snow during the morning commute and the relatively high snow totals. And we definitely think some Superintendents will call this one on Monday night.

Here's our favorite map so far:

NWS Albany -- high end forecast.

We're not sure how this much snow is going to fall from a storm that is supposed to move through this fast, but we like it! In no way does the GSD Staff think that this amount of snow will fall, but it's nice knowing it's in the realm of possibility.

Here are some realistic maps:

Meteorologist Dave Epstein.

NWS Burlington

The next time you'll hear from us Monday. We'll have (hopefully) more refined information, more maps, and hopefully a few closings to report.

Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Details Coming Into Focus

A quick hitter between sessions at the Western Mass agricultural conference in Amherst:

*This will be a nor'easter of the Miller Type B variety (Ohio valley to coastal low pressure system development).

*Models are more in agreement and they are sending strong signals. The Euro has 9-12" for Berkshire County, while the American is slightly under that, showing 7-10" south to north. 

*The timing is "mwah!" (chef's kiss).

*Winter Weather Advisories and/or Winter Storm Watches could be posted as early as today.

Here are some maps:

American

European

The position of the center of this low pressure system is ideal.