Tuesday, February 13 Storm: Encouraging News

The buzz for Tuesday is beginning to get louder, and the forecast models continue to evolve in a more positive direction. There's still a lot of uncertainty but today things are looking better.

We've seen a slight change in the models today. We're seeing more agreement between the European and the American, and the snow totals are significantly higher. You would think that the GSD Staff would be over-the-moon excited about this development but two key pieces of information are holding us back: 1) it's going to be very warm in the days leading up to the storm; 2) we're still over 80 hours away from the onset of the storm so things can literally go south. 

The American Model. Snow totals by Tuesday evening.

The Euro. Same time frame. Not so bad!

Please don't misunderstand us--we are definitely encouraged by today's developments. Snow days are certainly possible for Tuesday--but we're just not ready to ramp the Confidence Meter up to 90% at the moment.

One of our trusted weather gurus is Bernie Rayno of Accuweather, and we really like what he's saying about this storm. He has noted the trends and thinks the storm track will continue to move slightly more north over the next few days. For us, the norther the better!

Bernie Rayno's map (created today--Friday).

The GSD Staff has a busy weekend with yet another agricultural conference (in western Mass this weekend), so our windows for posting are limited. We are hoping to get an update out midday tomorrow, but it may be a short one. At the latest we'll update Sunday morning with more comprehensive information about the possible snow day for Tuesday.

February 13 Storm: Keeping Hope Alive

We hope you have enjoyed this week of sun and milder temps during the day. But that's not why you're here, so we are going to get right to it regarding next week's storm.

Simply put, there's some hope for a storm on Tuesday. The National Weather Services in both Boston and Albany have mentioned a coastal storm in their longer range forecasts. There are signals for a significant coastal storm developing late Monday into Tuesday, but the track of the storm is anything but certain at the moment. 

As far as the models go, they are all over the place. Last weekend they were both showing plowable snow for our area. Then, early this week, they showed little or no snow for our area for February 12-14. Today, though, things have swung back in our favor. The Euro is showing 4-5" for us by Tuesday night; the American is showing 10+ inches for the Berkshires.

We have our doubts about 10+ inches on Tuesday, but it's promising that the models are both showing snow. We will likely see the model "windshield wiper effect" over the next 3-4 days. The models will show snow today and tomorrow--and initiate the hype machine--but then adjust and take the storm more to our south. But then over the weekend we'll see the models begin to show moderate snow again for Tuesday. This flip-flopping from the models is very typical of coastal storms at this time of year.

Clickbait alert. This is the American model projection for Tuesday.

Right now a big snow event is something fun to hope for, but the GSD Staff is not getting too excited (yet). If models begin to come in with high snow totals run after run--model projections come out every six hours--then we'll start to guide you about snow day chances on Tuesday. 

Think good snow thoughts, and we'll have more info soon.

Week of February 5: Dry and Sunny and Mild yet a Storm Looms in the Distance

Our stormy pattern has turned as Old Man Winter appears to be enjoying a mid-season break. Fortunately, it appears he's not going to take too much time off as many in the weather world are eyeing a late Monday/Early Tuesday snow event (Feb 12/13). A snow day in the week before the public schools tae their February break would not be a terrible turn of events.

Your vitamin D is going to get a big boost this week as we should see bright sun and clear skies until the end of the week. The pattern will be mid-30s during the day and mid-teens at night, which is good for artificial snow production at the facilities that need it. Get outside and enjoy the sun.