Will You Have School On Friday, December 16?

In the immortal words of Professor Hinkle: "Messy, messy, messy!"

We have a really interesting and complicated storm setting up for Friday. This Miller B is proving to be difficult. We truly wish there was more certainty at this point--as do the meteorologists in our region--but this one is going to very hard to predict. And chances are good that the prediction is not what actually happens.

The semi-good news is that we have a Winter Storm Watch up for Northern Berkshire County. This means the potential for 7+ inches of snow exists. And the timing could not be better--7 PM Thursday through Saturday morning.

The bad news is that warm air is going to play a big role with this storm and could creep far enough north to make this a snow-to-rain event for everyone in Berkshire County. We are seeing some models that are keeping the cold air in place longer, which means all snow even in the valleys. Other models show a nose of warmer air pushing up from the Hudson Valley and extending into the southern and western portion of the County.

The initial NWS-Albany features a blend of these models, and--if it's accurate--we'll see several districts call snow days for Friday.

Quite the spread of snow totals for the County. 

Given the timing and the threat for high snow amounts, as long as it's snowing between 5 and 6 AM,  many districts will go with the snow day. If the conversion to rain has occurred at that hour, then we could see delays for several districts. Either way, the consensus of the GSD Staff is that most students in Berkshire County will have a delay or full snow day on Friday.

As we get within 48 hours of a storm, one model that meteorologists like to use is called the NAM. It stands for North American Mesoscale, but it's a different model than the other North American model we always talk about in relation to the Euro model. The NAM is a better regional model because it takes into account small-scale weather phenomena. (How it does that is above our pay grade.) So let us check in with the NAM tomorrow and we should have a better read on what the storm should do.

We would like to see two things happen: 1) We want to see the Winter Storm Watch extended to South County. 2) We want to see those Watches upgraded to Warnings. If that happens on Wednesday or early Thursday, then enjoy your three-day weekend.

Nor'easter School Is In Sesson

We love when a storm over performs, and yesterday's clipper-type system certainly did that. Here are snow reports from around the region. We did much better in mid-County and South County than we thought we would do.

Now, all talk will shift to the potential blockbuster of a storm for the end of the week. Not surprisingly, there's some uncertainty about the track and timing, so unfortunately we can not "lock this one in" just yet.

Before we get into this storm's particulars, you may hear chatter about the end-of-the-week storm as a  "Miller B storm." What does this mean? Who is Miller? Is there a Miller A storm?

Image courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Your GSD Nor'easter Seminar is now in session. "Miller" is meteorologist J.E. Miller, who identified two types of nor'easters in 1946. The first--type A--originates in the Gulf of Mexico, shoots across the coastal southeast states, and then gains energy along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states and New England. The second type--type B--comes out of the Ohio River valley, travels to the east coast, then picks up energy there and starts to move along the coast in a northeasterly direction. When the type B hits the coast and starts to move up, that's when you hear the terms "cyclogenesis" and "bombogenesis" as the storm picks up in strength and intensity.

The end-of-the-week storm will be a Miller B storm. That is exciting, as it could dump as much as a foot of snow on the Berkshires. Both the Euro and North American models are showing significant snowfall for most of the Berkshires by midday on Saturday. There's too much uncertainty right now to even hazard a guess for Friday, but let's just say we won't be surprised if there's serious discussion in a few days about a potential snow day and three-day weekend. 

We'll start to see more certainty about the future behavior of this storm by Wednesday morning. We're monitoring it around the clock and hope to have good news to share very soon.

The North American model for snow totals by 6 AM Saturday. The NA model takes the storm farther south and east.

The Euro model for snow totals by midnight Friday. The dry slot south Albany is concerning, but the rest looks great.

Delays for Monday, December 12

So far, road crews have put in good work and cleaned up the streets. Most schools appear to be in full session. Here's what we have so far (last update 6:53 AM): 

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

BART

Berkshire Community College

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Mount Greylock Regional 

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Berlin

New Lebanon

Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union (Mt. Anthony)