In the immortal words of Professor Hinkle: "Messy, messy, messy!"
We have a really interesting and complicated storm setting up for Friday. This Miller B is proving to be difficult. We truly wish there was more certainty at this point--as do the meteorologists in our region--but this one is going to very hard to predict. And chances are good that the prediction is not what actually happens.
The semi-good news is that we have a Winter Storm Watch up for Northern Berkshire County. This means the potential for 7+ inches of snow exists. And the timing could not be better--7 PM Thursday through Saturday morning.
The bad news is that warm air is going to play a big role with this storm and could creep far enough north to make this a snow-to-rain event for everyone in Berkshire County. We are seeing some models that are keeping the cold air in place longer, which means all snow even in the valleys. Other models show a nose of warmer air pushing up from the Hudson Valley and extending into the southern and western portion of the County.
The initial NWS-Albany features a blend of these models, and--if it's accurate--we'll see several districts call snow days for Friday.
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| Quite the spread of snow totals for the County. |
Given the timing and the threat for high snow amounts, as long as it's snowing between 5 and 6 AM, many districts will go with the snow day. If the conversion to rain has occurred at that hour, then we could see delays for several districts. Either way, the consensus of the GSD Staff is that most students in Berkshire County will have a delay or full snow day on Friday.
As we get within 48 hours of a storm, one model that meteorologists like to use is called the NAM. It stands for North American Mesoscale, but it's a different model than the other North American model we always talk about in relation to the Euro model. The NAM is a better regional model because it takes into account small-scale weather phenomena. (How it does that is above our pay grade.) So let us check in with the NAM tomorrow and we should have a better read on what the storm should do.
We would like to see two things happen: 1) We want to see the Winter Storm Watch extended to South County. 2) We want to see those Watches upgraded to Warnings. If that happens on Wednesday or early Thursday, then enjoy your three-day weekend.
In Berkshire County, will it snow or rain?
ReplyDeleteThe forecast is uncertain, it's all the same.
The storm is tricky, the models disagree,
So we'll have to wait and see.
Will there be school on Friday, December 16?
It's hard to say for sure,
But most districts will have a delay or snow day,
As the storm rolls in and starts to pour.
We'll check the NAM model tomorrow,
To see what it predicts,
And hope the Winter Storm Watch extends south,
So we can all have a snow day, without a doubt.