A Whole Lotta Nothin'

Alas, the doldrums of December.

Despite the gradual build-up of holiday festiveness in the air, we are not seeing much on the short radar that would suggest any meteorological festiveness.

This week (Dec. 5-11) will be warm and wet early and then cooler by the weekend. After a dry Monday, we'll see a soaking rain during the day on Tuesday and well into Wednesday. Temps will be in the mid-50s so there's zero chance of any changeover even on the backside of the storm. By Thursday things will dry out as colder air comes into the Berkshires.

There's some debate about what's going to happen on Friday and the weekend. One model is showing a cooler, drier weekend. Other models point to rain and snow showers (Friday evening especially). We'll know more in a few days, but we're not expecting to get too excited over anything on the snow front.

There is some cause for optimism, though. We are starting to seem some encouraging forecasts for the Northeast for the middle of next week (Dec. 14-15, see below). The polar vortex is starting to shed some of its cold air, which could impact our area and set up a much more active snow pattern. And it's possible we could see that pattern continue right into the Christmas holiday. 

European model for snowfall by next Thursday. Models notoriously exaggerate snow totals this far out, but we'd take 50% accuracy, right?

There is a chance the second half of the month could make up for the poor start to December. Many more updates about the changing pattern will be coming later this week.

Back From Thanksgiving Break: What To Expect

Happy Thanksgiving Weekend, Snowhounds!

After a little taste of winter last week, it's been quiet around the GSD Home Office with temperatures generally in the 40s for the last week or so. And, unfortunately, there's not much in the 10-day forecast to feast our eyes on. 

We'll see rain in the afternoon on Sunday, and then two dry days before a low pressure system comes up from the Gulf of Mexico to usher in the month of December. Normally, this type of storm would be something to get excited about, but it's going to track too far to the west. When we're on the east side of low pressure systems, too much warm air gets into the area and we get rain. There's no indication whatsoever that this storm will track further to the east and turn the rain to snow.

The European model for the Wednesday/Thursday storm. Not much to write home about.

As the storm departs, a cold front will come through, and that's when we could see a shift from rain to wintery mix or snow. This forecast is iffy, and the people with the best chance to see snow will be those who live in higher elevation towns. So snow is possible late Wednesday and early morning on Thursday but it won't be much.

The big noticeable attribute of the midweek storm will be high winds. We won't be surprised at all to see high wind warnings and alerts. Meteorologists are already talking about the potential for 50 mph gusts.

Enjoy the weekend!

The Chance For A Wednesday Delay Is Now Weaker

The good news: it's going to snow tonight. (In fact, it's snowing right now). Yay! The bad news: the storm is tracking more to our west than models and forecasters originally thought. Boo!

This means we will have our winter wonderland this evening so get out there and enjoy it. But a warm pocket of air is going to sneak up the from the south and change our snow over to mixed precipitation briefly and then all rain. Sadly, that changeover is going to happen much earlier than we thought: well before the morning commute.

So, it's not looking too great for delays. A few schools in higher elevation towns in the eastern part of the county could still get a delay, but most students should anticipate a full day tomorrow. We know that's not what you wanted to hear given all the stress and drama of the pre-sale today, but, like the Ticketmaster website, these early season storms can be very fickle and unreliable.

This ain't gonna cut it.

It's small consolation, but some of the models are showing impressive potential storms over Thanksgiving weekend and the middle of the week after Thanksgiving. And with the cold air in place for a few more weeks, our chance for an early season winter storm is still better than average.