A Whole Lotta Nothin'

Alas, the doldrums of December.

Despite the gradual build-up of holiday festiveness in the air, we are not seeing much on the short radar that would suggest any meteorological festiveness.

This week (Dec. 5-11) will be warm and wet early and then cooler by the weekend. After a dry Monday, we'll see a soaking rain during the day on Tuesday and well into Wednesday. Temps will be in the mid-50s so there's zero chance of any changeover even on the backside of the storm. By Thursday things will dry out as colder air comes into the Berkshires.

There's some debate about what's going to happen on Friday and the weekend. One model is showing a cooler, drier weekend. Other models point to rain and snow showers (Friday evening especially). We'll know more in a few days, but we're not expecting to get too excited over anything on the snow front.

There is some cause for optimism, though. We are starting to seem some encouraging forecasts for the Northeast for the middle of next week (Dec. 14-15, see below). The polar vortex is starting to shed some of its cold air, which could impact our area and set up a much more active snow pattern. And it's possible we could see that pattern continue right into the Christmas holiday. 

European model for snowfall by next Thursday. Models notoriously exaggerate snow totals this far out, but we'd take 50% accuracy, right?

There is a chance the second half of the month could make up for the poor start to December. Many more updates about the changing pattern will be coming later this week.