Friday Storm--Wednesday PM Update

Keeping the Flake Followers updated:

*You might see your weather app drop its snow totals for Friday. And NWS Albany also has lowered our amounts in the County from 4-8" to 1-4". Initially, the GSD Staff is thinking: "Not great."

*Even though this might seem like a negative development, all it means is that more ice--sleet and freezing rain--is expected for the Berkshires, which is going to suppress snow totals. Lots of snow = bad. Lot's of ice = really bad.

*The forecast is still terrible for Friday morning and midday. This could be one of those storms that Superintendents cancel school based on the forecast and not on the conditions that they are experiencing between 5 and 6 AM on Friday. At least that's what we're hoping for.

*Temperature forecasts are what we're really studying right now. Some models usher sub-freezing air into the Berkshires by tomorrow evening. Others show us getting down to 32° by 7 AM on Friday. Whenever we hit that 32° mark, things will get ugly on the roadways in a hurry.

*But because there might be a stern Superintendent or two out there, we're going to hold the Confidence Meter at 75% for snow days. Especially in South County, there's a chance students have a full day of school or an early release.

*We're still as confident about snow days at this point, but we're not more confident--a subtle distinction but a distinction nonetheless. 

In the immortal words of Ham Porter: "You're killin' me, Smalls."

More weather fun tomorrow!

Winter Storm Watch -- Thursday Afternoon Through Friday

NWS Albany has come around on the storm and is now expecting snow-day-worthy snow totals.

Here are few updates about the impending storm and (hopefully) snow day:

*NWS Albany announced a Winter Storm Watch in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The Watch calls for a chance of 6+ inches of snow in addition to sleet starting at 4 PM Thursday and ending Friday afternoon.

*We've seen ice forecasts between .1 and .25 of sleet and up to .33 of freezing rain. Sleet will make for terrible driving conditions, and a third of an inch of freezing rain could really cause more serious problems. Never discount the danger of ice.

*The models are starting to come into agreement, and it looks like enough cold air will be in place for plenty of ice and snow for the entire county. To paraphrase chief meteorologist Bernie Rayno, in the battle between cold air and warm air, cold air always wins.

*This storm actually begins tonight. Rain should start after midnight, and then we're all just going to be watching the thermometer to see when the mercury will drop to 32℉. The sooner that happens, the better our chances for a snow day.

*We'll be surprised if many students have school on Friday. North County schools should have a three-day weekend. If the transition doesn't happen fast enough in the farthest reaches of South County, a district might decide to have school. But given the sleet/ice/snow forecast, districts may cancel out of an abundance of caution even if it's still raining between 5 and 6 AM.

This is a nasty-looking map for 6 AM on Friday. The orange is freezing rain; the purple is sleet. If it comes true, no one will want to be on the roads at that time.

Friday Storm: Rain to Ice to Snow

Friday's storm is no joke.

The European model is gradually moving the boundary between the cold air and the warm air further south, and the American model has the Berkshires in the snow bonanza zone, with over a foot for most folks in the county.

FYI: the American model (this one) hasn't been super reliable 3-4 days before a storm the last few times out. 

That number that the American model is producing (above) is probably overcooked, but we at GSD Headquarters think we'll still get half a foot, with potentially less down by the Connecticut border and more in the northwest corner of the County, which is the exact opposite of this past weekend's storm.

Because we continue to be right on that boundary, the threat for a period of several hours of sleet and/or freezing rain is very much in the mix for Thursday night into Friday. That's the sticking point for many meteorologists and is the reason we're seeing a lot of variance in expected snowfall totals. 

One nice thing about this storm--and a big difference between it and the last several storms--is that the track is essentially guaranteed. This storm is not going out to sea; liquid is going to come out of the sky one way or another. What its form will be is still uncertain.

If you really want a snow day Friday--and there are probably a few of you out there who would enjoy a three-day weekend--then you are rooting for the sleet-to-snow evolution of this storm, especially if that sleet starts to fall after midnight on Thursday. We have the Confidence Meter at 50%, but that's a soft number and one that will likely go higher as we get closer to Friday.

NWS Albany is slow-playing snow totals at this point. We think these totals will come up tomorrow, and we should see some kind of Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch by the end of the day.