Friday Storm: Rain to Ice to Snow

Friday's storm is no joke.

The European model is gradually moving the boundary between the cold air and the warm air further south, and the American model has the Berkshires in the snow bonanza zone, with over a foot for most folks in the county.

FYI: the American model (this one) hasn't been super reliable 3-4 days before a storm the last few times out. 

That number that the American model is producing (above) is probably overcooked, but we at GSD Headquarters think we'll still get half a foot, with potentially less down by the Connecticut border and more in the northwest corner of the County, which is the exact opposite of this past weekend's storm.

Because we continue to be right on that boundary, the threat for a period of several hours of sleet and/or freezing rain is very much in the mix for Thursday night into Friday. That's the sticking point for many meteorologists and is the reason we're seeing a lot of variance in expected snowfall totals. 

One nice thing about this storm--and a big difference between it and the last several storms--is that the track is essentially guaranteed. This storm is not going out to sea; liquid is going to come out of the sky one way or another. What its form will be is still uncertain.

If you really want a snow day Friday--and there are probably a few of you out there who would enjoy a three-day weekend--then you are rooting for the sleet-to-snow evolution of this storm, especially if that sleet starts to fall after midnight on Thursday. We have the Confidence Meter at 50%, but that's a soft number and one that will likely go higher as we get closer to Friday.

NWS Albany is slow-playing snow totals at this point. We think these totals will come up tomorrow, and we should see some kind of Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch by the end of the day.