Friday Storm Threat: Is It Really Going To Happen This Time?

Well, here we are again. We are four days out from the latest iteration of The Big Storm Of The Season™and, wouldn't you know it, the models are not in agreement. Again.

We talked about the boundary between the two fronts yesterday, and the real point of difference between the two main models, Euro and American, is the location of this boundary line. The Euro sets the boundary up to our north, cutting across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The American drops that boundary line all the way to New Haven, Connecticut and Warwick, Rhode Island.

The European model. Potential snow accumulation by Friday at 6 PM.

The American model. Potential snow accumulation by 6 PM on Friday.

Simply put: at this stage of the proceedings, the American model gives us 8-12 inches; the Euro gives us a few inches of snow in northern Berkshire County and a long period of sleet for all. Either way, chances are pretty good for a snow day if either forecast holds. The timing is spectacular--it starts early Thursday and will last through the day on Friday. Especially if the forecast for significant icing ends up proving to be true, many school districts will make the call for snow/ice day for Friday on Thursday night.

We'll see a lot of back and forth in the next few days from meteorologists, but the GSD Staff is allowing itself to feel some optimism about this storm. Much more to follow in the next few days.

Warming Up, Then Friday Storm

To all of those who have bought the GSD Staff a coffee or five--we're looking at you, JSG!--thanks so much. We really appreciate it, and it should allow the Best Staff Ever to power through to the month of February.

Euro map for Friday, by noon. What you see here is a classic stalled cold front. What isn't pictured is rain to the south of that snow boundary. Let's hope that boundary drops about 200 miles south.

We have a very interesting situation setting up for Friday. Unfortunately, it's anything but a certainty and we might have near miss part deux, this time to the north.

This storm is not going to be a nor'easter; precipitation will come from the west. Instead, a cold front is going to stall over our region. At the same time, warm air is going to force itself into New England from the southwest. This scenario will set up a warm air v cold air battle and amplify the precipitation. The range of possibilities is quite wide at the moment. In the Berkshires, we could have all rain for 36 hours. We could have mixed precipitation for a prolonged period. We could also have all snow, depending on where the boundary between the two air masses (cold and warm) sets up.

At the moment, the models (Euro and American) suggest that the boundary will sadly stay to our north: northern New York and New England will pick up a foot of snow or more Thursday into Friday and the Berkshires will see rain. But we will need to monitor this storm all week to see if there's any movement of the boundary south, which is a possibility.

Either way, Thursday and Friday will be wet/icy/snowy. There is  A LOT of moisture associated with this system, and we're pretty excited to see how things shape up by the end of the week.

Weekend Storm Update--Saturday Edition

It's a frigid 6° at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, and as of 2:00 PM, the snow has stopped. 

The snow, though, will continue to fall in parts of the Berkshires throughout the afternoon and early evening, and it should all wrap up before midnight. While it is sad to be missing out on all the fun they're having over in the eastern sections of New England (although power outages are decidedly not fun), we aren't getting completely shut out, and for that we are thankful.

We'll probably end up with 2 inches in Williamstown and close to 6 inches in the southeast corner of the county. Sandisfield had almost 5 inches as of noon today. These totals are more in line with the snowfall predictions we were seeing emerge from the models on Wednesday.

The key weather concern this afternoon and evening will be a bitter wind chill and blowing snow. We're expecting to see gusts up around 30 mph, which will lead to wind chill values in the negative high teens and low twenties.

Even though this storm is more or less a bust, there's always the next one. Here's a model for Friday, February 4:

Temps will be in the mid-40s on Thursday, so this map is likely unrealistic. But we still have a lot of winter left, and at this point forward the law of averages should be working in our favor.