Possible Delays Thursday (Jan. 20)

Early in the week we picked up some chatter about another chance for a big storm on Saturday, but that ship has sailed. The two systems will not phase and will unfortunately slide out to sea to our south.

Instead, we'll enjoy a few days of very cold temps--high teens and low 20s for highs--on Friday and Saturday.

Channel 22 in Springfield coming in hot with a strong forecast for Thursday morning.

It may be sneaking under the radar (intended) for even some attentive weather watchers, but we could get a quick hit of snow right before and during the morning commute tomorrow. While we wouldn't say there's a high probability of delays, it's possible that the roads could be just slick enough at the right time especially for South County schools to get a delay.

As for future storms, something may be in the works for Wednesday. But in the meantime, temps will stay cold and allow for the snow on the ground to extend its stay in the Berkshires.

Winter Storm Warning (After All)

NWS Albany has upgraded our Watch to a Warning for all of Berkshire County. The details are snow starts around 11 PM with snowfall rates of up to 1 to 2 inches per hour between midnight and 7 AM. There will be a changeover to sleet and rain later in the morning, but by that point most of the county should have 5 inches on the ground and higher amounts in the eastern side of the County.

It's coming. Notice that beautiful comma shape. 

If the storm over-performs, which would not surprise us, we'll end up with a nice 8-10 inch base.

Another factor working in our favor is the cold air that is in place. We registered a toasty -10℉ around 6 AM on the trusty GSD Weather Station™. The storm will gradually lift the temperature above freezing as it overspreads our area, but the subzero temps will slow that process down and, ideally, give us several more hours for snow to fall.

Public schools have the day off tomorrow, but a few private schools out there do not. Given the timing of the storm and the uncertainty about the changeover to a sleet and rain as well as the strong winds that will be gusting to 40 mph, it's likely those schools will join their free education brethren with a day off.

And now some maps:

WRGB in Albany. A perfectly acceptable map.

WWLP in Springfield. We like this one.

Weather Underground/Intellicast. This map also meets our approval.

Bad News For Snow Lovers

We simply can not catch a break with predicted storms this winter. Our first storm back around Thanksgiving over-performed, but since then it has just been one disappointment after another. 

The worst case scenario--the inland track of the storm toward our west--appears to be what's going to happen. Obviously, there is a fair amount of cold air in place, so we definitely will see some an initial burst snow once it starts. 

The big unknown is the timeline of the changeovers from snow to mixed precipitation to rain. NWS Albany is communicating that the changeover will occur before sunrise for most of Berkshire County, but that prediction was made very early this morning and is likely subject to change.

We expect to see adjustments to this map later today and tomorrow.

Right now we think we all will see between 2 and 5 inches of snow with higher amounts approaching a foot in the higher elevation towns of Northern Berkshire. The changeover to rain will be quicker in South County, and we could see a few hours of sleet midday especially in Hancock, Lanesboro, Cheshire, and Savoy and points north.

Precipitation from this storm will last throughout the day on Monday, and it won't surprise us at all if the rain changes back to snow for a brief period Monday night with light accumulations of an inch or less.

One other complicating piece to this puzzle is the wind. We are going to see very strong winds in the initial 5-6 hours of the storm. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible, so don't be surprised to see power outages here and there.

Monday looks like another day more suited to indoor activities. And of course weather fanatics are already scoping out another storm next Sunday. Sounds familiar.