Thursday Snow

Just like that and we're right back into the winter storm groove. All signs are pointing to a snowy day on Thursday. We are just on the fringe of a potentially historically large coastal storm, or "a winter hurricane," as the Washington Post is calling it. This is a massive storm, but mostly acquatic creatures will feel the brunt of it.

Good news: we've seen slight uptick in the amount of snow forecast for our area on Thursday. We're now expecting 3-4 inches for most of the county, with possibly of more in the eastern part of the county.

What's really interesting is the range in the forecast for snow. Most models are suggesting 3-4 inches. Some model runs indicate just a trace of snow. But on the other end, some model runs are calling for 10 inches for the Berkshires.

What does this mean? First, we're more likely than not to get 2-4 inches of snow, as that's what most models are showing. Second, we're not far away from very heavy snowfall. We are not encouraging you to get your hopes up, but if the storm hugs the coast a little tighter, we could easily see our snow fall totals double.

There is bad news. The timing of the storm is not working for us on Thursday. It could be snowing by the morning commute in South County, but it looks like the snow will hold off until midmorning. But the afternoon commute home will be dicey, and we will see many schools call off practices and games Thursday afternoon and night if the storm behaves as expected.

So, while it will be nice to get a fresh few inches of snow on top of our old snow, we don't think much is going to happen on the school closing/delay/early release front. A few skittish Superintendents might go with a snow day or an early release, but the GSD Staff is not putting up a lot of True North Confidence Meter percentage points on those outcomes.

We should see a Winter Weather Advisory announced for Berkshire County by midday tomorrow. If the NWS announces a Winter Storm Watch or Warning, that's a great sign: we'll be in line for 4-8 inches of snow. Bet on the Advisory, and keep your fingers crossed that the storm starts a few hours earlier than expected.

The snow on Thursday will be one story to follow, but the cold on Friday and Saturday will be an even bigger story. How cold will it be Saturday? The Berkshire County cross country ski races slated for Saturday have been moved to Sunday, and we're sure that most outdoor events will have to be postponed. It's possible the high temperature for most that day will not reach zero.

Sunday and Monday look much milder. We also are eyeing some messy weather Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Much more tomorrow!

Freeze Delays Reported!

We have several schools that have called in a freeze delay for today. The temp has risen during the evening due to thin cloud covering--+5 at the GSD Home Office--which means we will likely not be adding too many more schools to this list.

Here's who has a delay.  We will continue to add to it should more delays come in.

2-HOUR DELAY:

Farmington River
Southwest Vermont SU
Mohawk Trail
Southern Berkshire
Stamford (VT)
Emma Miller Memorial

FREEZE DAY:

Mt. Anthony Union Middle School (frozen pipes)

First Forecast of 2018

Happy New Year, dear readers. It is a balmy -16 degrees at the GSD Home Office this morning, but there's no wind at the moment, so we've got that, which is nice. We do have a Wind Chill Warning in effect, though, through 1 PM today, and we bet that gets extended. If you need to go out, layer up.

New Year's greetings from Old Man Winter

A few days ago we hinted at a big midweek storm. While we do think we'll see a few inches from that storm, mostly it's going out to sea. During the day on Thursday we'll see light snow, but unfortunately it does not look like it will impact the length of the school day. We might see a few games canceled in the evening, but the chance of that happening is still relatively low. It will be a very big storm, but for Down East Maine, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.

The big impact of this storm on the Berkshires will be on the temperatures in its aftermath. As it lifts well to our northeast, bitterly cold air will wrap around it (counterclockwise) and flood into our area. This means that on Friday, the high temperature will be somewhere around 0. On Saturday, the high temperature could be in the negative numbers. This is unusual and should not be taken lightly.

Low temps this weekend will be around -15 degrees each morning.

The GSD Staff is sure that you are wondering about freeze delays. Unfortunately, the timing isn't working for us. There is no question that some districts would delay the start of the school day with temperature readings of 15 degrees below zero. But the lowest temps were expecting on any school day mornings is 1 or 2 degrees below zero on Friday.

We'll keep an eye on the Thursday storm for certain. It's close enough to our region that a change in the track could give us 3-6 inches of snow instead of the 1-2 inches that are predicted right now.

We wish we had better news for this week. But for the long-term forecast we are hearing about a return to a more active storm pattern after this first week of 2018.