Thursday Snow

Just like that and we're right back into the winter storm groove. All signs are pointing to a snowy day on Thursday. We are just on the fringe of a potentially historically large coastal storm, or "a winter hurricane," as the Washington Post is calling it. This is a massive storm, but mostly acquatic creatures will feel the brunt of it.

Good news: we've seen slight uptick in the amount of snow forecast for our area on Thursday. We're now expecting 3-4 inches for most of the county, with possibly of more in the eastern part of the county.

What's really interesting is the range in the forecast for snow. Most models are suggesting 3-4 inches. Some model runs indicate just a trace of snow. But on the other end, some model runs are calling for 10 inches for the Berkshires.

What does this mean? First, we're more likely than not to get 2-4 inches of snow, as that's what most models are showing. Second, we're not far away from very heavy snowfall. We are not encouraging you to get your hopes up, but if the storm hugs the coast a little tighter, we could easily see our snow fall totals double.

There is bad news. The timing of the storm is not working for us on Thursday. It could be snowing by the morning commute in South County, but it looks like the snow will hold off until midmorning. But the afternoon commute home will be dicey, and we will see many schools call off practices and games Thursday afternoon and night if the storm behaves as expected.

So, while it will be nice to get a fresh few inches of snow on top of our old snow, we don't think much is going to happen on the school closing/delay/early release front. A few skittish Superintendents might go with a snow day or an early release, but the GSD Staff is not putting up a lot of True North Confidence Meter percentage points on those outcomes.

We should see a Winter Weather Advisory announced for Berkshire County by midday tomorrow. If the NWS announces a Winter Storm Watch or Warning, that's a great sign: we'll be in line for 4-8 inches of snow. Bet on the Advisory, and keep your fingers crossed that the storm starts a few hours earlier than expected.

The snow on Thursday will be one story to follow, but the cold on Friday and Saturday will be an even bigger story. How cold will it be Saturday? The Berkshire County cross country ski races slated for Saturday have been moved to Sunday, and we're sure that most outdoor events will have to be postponed. It's possible the high temperature for most that day will not reach zero.

Sunday and Monday look much milder. We also are eyeing some messy weather Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Much more tomorrow!