Possible Delays For Thursday & Aftermath

March storms can really be something. Had this storm hit us, say, back in January, it would have given us a ton of snow and blowing and drifting of snow would have been issue. But it probably would have been a lot colder and the snow would not have stuck to the trees.

But the stickiness of the snow really proved to be problem. Thousands of people lost their power--some are still out--and having school today just wasn't doable because of all the downed trees and the extra time needed to dig out. It has been awhile since we've had back-to-back snow days for nearly every student in the County.

For final snow totals, check out this very unique interactive map from The Boston Globe. 

We may even see some delays tomorrow if schools can't get the power back on. Some schools near Berkshire County have snow days (Mohawk Trail) and delays (Stamford, VT), but we've seen nothing yet for Berkshire County. We don't there will be many delays, but it's not out of the question.

Things will quiet down for a stretch. We may see some rain on Friday, and there are some early signs for another potential storm on the weekend of the 25th. We're not going to get too excited about that one just yet.

Spring sports for high schools start on Monday!

Closings and Delays For Wed. March 15

Upslope snows continue to add to the snow totals and winds are gusty. Light snow should continue for a few more hours and then we'll see a few flurries the rest of the day. The districts and schools below with an asterisk (*) got the upgrade from a delay to a snow day.

Last update: Wednesday, March 15 8:30 AM

SNOW DAY:

*Adams-Cheshire

BART
BCC

*Berkshire Hills

*Berkshire Waldorf
Central Berkshire 

Clarksburg
Emma L. Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott

Lee

*Lenox

MCLA
*Mount Greylock RSD

North Adams
Pine Cobble

*Pittsfield

*Richmond Consolidated

*Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU [Remote day for teachers and staff. 👎]

Stamford, VT

TWO-HOUR DELAY (most schools will revisit this decision at 6 AM Wednesday):

 
Hancock 

Williams College (Admin Offices open at 10 AM; Children's Center open at 9:30 AM; profs will decide)

Nor'easter Day 2: Wednesday Scenarios

It looks like the models were correct--bite your tongue if you just said, "for a change"--and many folks are digging out of double-digit snowfalls.

Here at the elevationally-challenged GSD Home Office (only 700 feet) we only had 5 inches on the ground as of 2:00 PM, but other locations throughout the Berkshires are showing snow totals ranging from 8 to 12 in the valleys and 18-30 in the eastern hill towns. For regularly updated snow totals, check out this handy map.

Most meteorologists expect the snow to continue to fall throughout the Berkshires into Wednesday morning. It will taper down as we get toward daybreak, but we will be seeing upslope snow for the rest of the day and overnight. As the storm lifts away to our east, winds will shift to the north and east and create a swath of snow similar to a lake effect snow (but more of a mountain effect snow).

We should see between 2-6 more inches in most locations. And once you factor in the big wind gusts that we'll see later tonight and early tomorrow--which will only add to the widespread power outages we have had already--we definitely think there will be many delays and snow days on Wednesday.

If you live in the eastern half of the Berkshires and your school district services students who live above 1000' feet, then you have a 95% chance of a delay and a 50% chance for another snow day. We're talking about Adams-Cheshire, Emma Miller, Clarksburg, Central Berkshire, and Farmington River.

If you live on the west side or in the valleys, you have a 25% of a snow day and a 50% of a delay. 

A huge factor will be the quality of the snow. If the snow stays wet and sticky, there will be less blowing and drifting of snow, but if the snow dries out and becomes dustier, then blowing snow will re-cover roads that have just been plowed. The temps are supposed to drop to 27 or 28 tonight, which could be just enough of a temp decrease to create blowing snow.

We'll run a list of delays and snow days later today. Emma Miller in Savoy has already called off school for tomorrow.

And if you really want to lose your mind, it's possible we could see another significant coastal storm (i.e. nor'easter) around this time next week.

Closings for Tuesday, March 14

It's looking like a clean sweep. We'll let this storm get its footing before we offer up a prediction for the school day on Wednesday. Look for something Tuesday early afternoon. (If you want details on the storm from our Monday morning post, go here.)

LAST UPDATE: Monday 11:20 PM

SNOW DAY:

Adams-Cheshire

BART

BCC

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf School

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Emma Miller

Farmington River

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock 

Lee

Lenox

MCLA

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire

Stamford, VT

Williams College (admin offices & children's center closed; classes are up to the professor)

Bring It On

It's just a matter of hours before Superintendents start to call in their snow days for tomorrow. By the time you read this, you may have already learned that you do not have school tomorrow. We do not think that any students, including college-aged ones, will be on session on Tuesday, March 14. This storm is no Storm of the Century (March 1993), but it has a chance to be a memorable one.

Forecasts are still on track for at least 10+ inches of snow for the Berkshires, with higher amounts in the higher terrain. Pittsfield has a 77% chance of getting at least a foot of snow.

A few other storm tidbits we've picked up:

*The snow will be heavy and wet to start (8"/10" of snow per inch of liquid) on Monday night and then get lighter (12" to 15" of snow per inch of liquid) later on Tuesday.

*Snowfall rates of 1+" per hour will be common.

*Winds could gust to 40 MPH on Tuesday.

*This is going to be a long-duration event. The snow starts for real later this evening and might not end until Wednesday morning.

Delays and snow days for Wednesday are now probable, even likely.

As soon as we hear of the first cancellation, we'll start up our running list.

It's Official--Winter Storm Warning

NWS Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County (and southern Vermont and central Mass as well).

Key details are travel on Tuesday will be "very difficult to impossible." The 12 to 18" of snow will also be very heavy, which will lead to downed trees and power outages. And the winds are going to kick up midday and into the evening on Tuesday creating white out conditions. Good times!

There is still some hesitation from meteorologists about the warm air in place and just how long it's going to take to transition from rain/wet snow to accumulating snow. We think that warm air is going to hang around a little longer and keep snow totals closer to 12" than 18" for those who live in the 800' (and lower) elevation zone. Those above 1000' will probably get their 18".

No matter how we get there, Tuesday is going to be a mess, and we're still very confident that schools will not be in session that day.

Here are some maps to give you a general lay of the land and how meteorologists are feeling about the storm:

New England Cable News and GSD are mostly on the same page; we're both suggesting moderation with the snow totals predictions.

What's fantastic about this map from NWS Albany is that it is the "low end" map. If the snow is a bust, this is how much snow we'll get, say they. That's still a lot of snow.

Meteorologist Bernie Rayno of Accuweather doing his thing on YouTube with the Telestrator. Bernie does not think NYC or Boston will get much but he's confident the Berkshires will.

Love the totals. But the jury's still out on the color combos chosen by the Springfield 22 Storm Team. It's the green/aqua that's throwing things off.

This is the Euro snow total prediction as of 1 AM Wednesday. Still looking good.

Major Winter Storm

We're not going to mince words on this one: students from pre-school to college are not going to be in session on Tuesday. And especially in the eastern hill towns, some students will be getting two days off. Many Superintendents will make their decision by the end of the school day on Monday.

We don't use this map very often because we often only see minor and moderate impacts for area. This is the first time in many years that we've seen the "extreme" impacts designation for part of the Berkshires.

Despite the prediction for 18+" for all of the Berkshires, we still do not think that all towns will be digging out from a very heavy foot and a half of snow. Because this storm is a nor'easter, there will be a band of precipitation that forms north and west of the center of the storm. This thick band of very heavy snow is going to set up somewhere and very slowly pivot (counterclockwise) as the storm slowly lifts through New England and on its way to Canada. 

The current runs of the models put that band over northern Berkshire County and southern Vermont. Any movement of the track of the storm will shift this band, so right now we think towns north of Pittsfield have a better chance for 18+ inches.

South County is still going to get hit hard, but likely more in the 8-12" range (and higher totals in higher elevation spots).

The storm will start during the day on Monday. Because temps will be in the mid and high 30s, it will likely start as a mix of rain and snow until enough cooling occurs to make it all snow.

Grocery stores will be busy today so plan accordingly.

Mapfest later today.

Storm of the Season? Winter Storm Watch Already

It would appear the forecasts for last night's snow were mostly accurate with 1-3" reported from north to south in Berkshire County. With temps up toward 40 today, most of it has melted already.

Now we can focus on the big storm headed our way for Monday night through Tuesday night. NWS Albany has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for Berkshire County for 1-2 feet (!) of snow. And the first NWS Albany map for this storm is an absolute doozy:

That's a lot of red.

The reason for this map is that the main models are still showing the potential for 18" of snow for most residents in the County. We ultimately think that this number is too high mostly because of the relatively warm temperatures we'll see in the next few days. When the snow falls, it will be a heavy wet snow with some rain mixing in in lower elevations. The liquid to snow ratio will be quite low, so we'll probably "only" see 8-12 inches in the County.

As you know, 8-12" is more than enough snow for a snow day. It looks highly unlikely that students and teachers will have to report to school on Tuesday. There should be a few inches on the ground by daybreak Tuesday, and the forecast will be for moderate snow throughout the day.

The probability for 8+ inches of snow (as of noon on Tuesday).

If this storm busts, it will because of the storm track--through Connecticut and eastern New England--and we'll see a mix of rain and snow that puts us in the 3-6" range.

If we hit the jackpot--and it's not out of the question--we will see 12-16" in the valleys and 18-24" in the higher elevations. And the snow would not end until after midnight on Tuesday, which means some communities will have delays and a second snow day on Wednesday. Twenty inches of snow is a lot of snow to move around.

There's also going to be significant winds with this storm, which could lead to power outages later in the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Much more to come!

(And if you didn't see that GSD stickers are back, well they are. Details here.)

Old Man Winter Ain't Dead Yet

Happy Friday, Flake Freaks. Boy, do we have some good news for you.

It's going to snow tonight. And what was initially thought only to be a dusting will now be several inches on the ground by the time it stops tomorrow morning. Snow starts later tonight. North County should get 2-3 inches and South County could get up to 5 inches. Not a bad way to start the weekend. The rest of the day will be seasonable with temps in the mid 30s.

The Saturday appetizer will then give way to the main course Monday night into Tuesday. The exact track of the storm is uncertain, but the storm should pass through southern New England somewhere and then off the northern coast of Massachusetts. A more easterly track over Rhode Island and the Cape will keep colder air in place longer and allow for more snow. If the storm tracks through Connecticut, then a period of rain could sneak up into the Berkshires and keep snow totals down.

The reason there is optimism with this storm is the consistency between the runs of the models at this juncture. The three main models that meteorologists consult--the Euro, the North American, and the Canadian--all are showing 15+ inches for the Berkshires. The Canadian is showing 30" for Sheffield and Great Barrington (!).

Canadian (as of Tuesday midnight)

European

North American

Will we see two feet of snow in the Berkshires by Wednesday? Unlikely. But even if this storm gives us half of what is expected, most locations will get 6-8 inches of snow, which is more than enough to warrant full snow days for Tuesday.

The worst case scenario is a more westerly storm track with rain creeping in, leading to lower elevation towns getting a slushy snow rain mix. That could be enough to cancel school but it will be a close call.

The best case scenario is an absolute thumping starting Monday night and lasting all the way through the wee hours of  Wednesday giving us two full days off.

Right now the GSD Staff consensus is a full snow day on Tuesday with several districts needing an additional two-hour delay on Wednesday to clean up. But we will likely update this projection once we get a better read on the track of the storm.

Enjoy your Saturday snow; our next update will take place Saturday afternoon.

Stickers Are Back!

The triumphant return of GSD stickers!

Sticker is 3"x3"

Want one? Venmo your name and address to (@greylocksnowday). It's $2 per sticker plus $0.63 for shipping.

Or, send a stamp-addressed envelope plus $2 per sticker to: 

Greylock Snow Day,
228 Cold Spring Road
Williamstown, MA 01267

A Looming Nor'easter

Yesterday, we mentioned two chances for the snow in the next few days. More information has come in, and the chances for plowable snow has increased for the Saturday and Tuesday storms.

The Saturday event is more of a minor perturbance, but the storm system is showing signs that it wants to track more to the north. We should see a snowy start to the day on Saturday, with a few inches in Southern Berkshire County and a ground covering in the north. The snow should end early in the afternoon.

The big weather newsmaker is the potential nor'easter for Monday night/Tuesday. Yesterday, the models were far apart, but today that is no longer the case. The Euro model is showing the potential for 18-22" of snow, and the North American is now clocking in with a 10-14" dumping.

The Euro (by the end of the day on Tuesday).

Both models are probably overplaying this storm, but it's looking more and more likely that a 6+" storm will hit the Berkshires on Tuesday. The big "if" with this storm is the air temperature. The ground temperature will be above freezing at the start (Monday afternoon/night), so we could see some rain mix in in valley locations before the colder air aloft gets sucked down due to the falling precipitation. Rain will obviously lower snow total. This is the one area we're concerned about that could wreck the snow party.

North American also now showing the potential for heavy snow.

It's very hard not to get too excited so many days out, but we could see the biggest snow of the season on Tuesday. We'll be working around the clock monitoring the latest reports so you can plan accordingly for next week.

More Snow?

Yes, we'll be Spring-ing the clocks ahead this weekend by one hour, but winter will still be in the air as we move into mid-March.

Due to a Greenland block, we are expected to see cooler temperatures and normal precipitation amounts for the next several weeks. In the short term, this means we have two chances for snow--one minor and one major--in the next six days.

Over the weekend a minor system will approach from our west and give us a few flakes. The bulk of the snow will fall our southeast, but the northern edge of the storm could push into the Berkshires on Saturday. Southern Berkshire could see a few inches with lower amounts to the north.

The bigger storm could impact the length of the school day on Tuesday. Right now the Europeon model is a showing a whopper of a nor'easter with the potential for over a foot of snow. The North American model, though, takes the storm farther to the south and is only showing the chance for a few inches. Unfortunately, the European model has been over-dramatizing storms for the last month (although it did do better this past Saturday), and because the models are in such disagreement right now, we would encourage everyone to curb their excitement until we can gather more information.

The European model is suggesting a major nor'easter will hit us Monday night into Tuesday.

But...should the Euro model prove to be right, the timing and amount of precipitation looks excellent and would lead to widespread snow days throughout the Berkshires and southern and eastern New England. 

Much more to follow later this week.

Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires

While we do have a Winter Storm Watch up for the Berkshires for the Friday/Saturday storm, we have seen a shift downward in expected snow totals.

The models are still in disagreement, so an "all snow" event is still possible for us. But it appears a warm nose and a dry slot might sneak into our area after the storm starts, which will suppress snow totals.

NWS Albany

In terms of games, events, and performances on Friday night, we are now seeing a later start to the storm--more like 9 PM. This later start should put administrators more at ease, freeing the up to continue with their Friday plans. Saturday, however, is a different story.

Heavy snow will fall shortly after the storm begins, with possible rates of 1-2 inches per hour. After that initial burst, we could see that warm nose and dry slot, but then the coastal storm will form and give us light and moderate snow throughout the day on Saturday. Another complicating factor on Saturday will be high winds with gusts in the 30 and 40 mph range.

Travel will be slow Saturday morning, but road crews should be able to manage the snow by the early afternoon.

All told it looks like 3-4 inches in the southwest corner of the county with 6-8 up in the northwest corner. But we still think this storm has a chance to over-perform and double what is predicted above (for the Berkshires).

Delays and Weekend Storm Update

No delays for Berkshire County students, but our friends to the north in and around Bennington are seeing delays. Stamford and Southwestern Vermont Supervisory Union are going with the later start today.

NWS Albany and other local meteorologists are indicating that we're in for a big one this weekend. As of now it looks as if the snow will start around 6 PM and continue throughout the day on Saturday. 

As for games and performances on Friday night, schools would be prudent to move those events up a few hours if they have the resources and leeway to do so.

We should see a Winter Storm Warning announced later today. The Euro and North American models are both showing 6+ inches of snow for Berkshire County. The North American shows us getting over a foot by midnight on Saturday. But both models are showing a period of sleet several hours after the snow starts, so even the map above may be a little too aggressive with its snow total prediction.

More to come later today.

Freezing Rain and the Friday/Saturday Storm

Despite almost all students in the County getting snow days, yesterday's storm definitely underperformed. Most locations picked up 3 to 5 inches and most students probably should have had a snow day, but up here at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, we didn't even get to 2 inches.

Despite the fizzle in the northwest corner, the models weren't too far off, especially the Euro. As you can see below, some places to our west did get the 6-10 inches that was predicted.

But now it's on to the next storms. We have two noteworthy weather developments to watch out for. There is currently a Winter Weather Advisory for Berkshire County because freezing rain is expected overnight. The morning commute could be slippery so there is an outside chance that a district in the north has a delay on Thursday.

The other concern is a potential moderate to heavy snow producer on track for Friday night and Saturday. This one could produce up to a foot of snow in our area. It's unlikely it will start early enough on Friday to get students out of school early, but Friday night and Saturday morning could be very snowy. The X-factor for this storm will be a potential prolonged period of sleet (after midnight), which would keep snow totals down but make for very hazardous driving Saturday morning.

There are quite a few games and performances on Friday night in the County, and currently it is very much touch-and-go whether those events will take place or need to be postponed. We'll keep monitoring it so all you readers know what to expect.

But the skiers and snow enthusiasts should be happy come Sunday. We could have over a foot base througout the County, which should last us a few more weeks.

The North American model for the storm this weekend.

The European model is less aggressive with its snow totals. If you average the two, we should end up with 6-8 inches countywide.