Yes, we do have one lucky group of students today who have the day off. Some schools in New York are closing early, and many schools in eastern Mass have the day off due to the high winds and flooding potential.
For the rest of us, drive safely in your travels today. Watch out for steeply falling temperatures and "flash freeze" conditions. The cold air should begin to push through the Berkshires around 4:00.
CLOSED:
Farmington River
Stamford (VT)
Happy Holidays, faithful Flake Followers!
With only two more wake-ups until a glorious week of vacation, the weather gods are conspiring against us New Englanders. We will be on the wrong side--the warmer east side--of a monstrous storm that is going to really foul up people's travel plans on Friday.
An enormous bulge of cold air has already started to push its way into central US states. A snow storm will break out on the east edge of the bulge. Unfortunately, the cold air will not make to our area until the storm lifts past us to the northeast. While the upper Midwest will see snow and wind, we will only see rain and wind.
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| Check out those temps in Louisiana! This map is for midday on Friday. |
There is a chance the initial burst of precipitation will fall as snow, but the snow will change to heavy rain shortly thereafter. Still, there are two big concerns: 1) the wind; 2) flash freezing on Friday afternoon.
Winds Friday morning could hit 60 mph. Power outages are not only possible but likely. And then Friday afternoon and night we will see a 30-degree drop in temperatures. We will go from the 40s in the day on Friday to low teens by early Saturday morning. With over 2" of rain expected Thursday night and Friday, that could create treacherous driving conditions Friday night if roads are not treated.
Even though it's not a snowmaker, this storm could very well impact your plans given the size and duration of the event. Indoor activities are greatly encouraged for Friday, and you'll need to bundle up if you head out on Saturday as temps will not break 20 that day. Christmas Day is looking dry but still cold, with temps eventually getting into the low 20s after a very cold start--single digits for most.
We're definitely keeping an eye on this very volatile storm. We should be able to get one more report out on Thursday before we take the weekend off for the holiday.
Look, we got what we asked for, but for many of us it feels kind of cheap, doesn't it?
Most locations under 1000 or 1100 feet simply have not seen the snow that was forecasted to fall. That warm air would not budge, as we feared, and it's been a mostly rain event for the western and central portions of the County. But the storm did absolutely deliver--and continues to do so--in the hill towns.
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| Snow reports as of 3 PM, Friday. |
We're not out of the woods just yet. There's plenty of moisture in the air, and we are supposed to see heavy snow bands come through Berkshire County this afternoon and this evening. We don't suggest you hold your breath on those promises, but hopefully we'll at least replace the snow cover we had in place before this storm.
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| The 3:15 PM radar. |
After today's storm moves out, we will have a period of tranquility until the next storm threatens us Thursday/Friday (22nd-23rd). Sunday through Wednesday will be calm winter days with temps right around freezing and more sun than clouds.
Your weather app may be showing a big storm for Thursday/Friday--and the weather Twitterati were all over this pre-Christmas storm a few days ago--but we have reason to believe it could miss us. Our skepticism has less to do with today's bust of a storm and more to do with what our man Bernie Rayno of Accuweather is saying. He thinks the storm is going to cut in to our west, and when Bernie speaks, we listen. We still might be on the outdoor edge of the storm, which would mean light snow for us, but the big winners will be in the Ohio valley, Pennsylvania, and western New York.
There's A LOT of time left for the track of the storm to change. It really would be nice for the Christmas holiday if we could get a fresh covering of 6" on the 23rd. But at this moment that's more of a wish-cast than a forecast.
Enjoy the weekend and we'll have more to say about the upcoming storm in a few days.
CLICK HERE FOR SNOW DAYS AND DELAYS.
Snow has started to fall in southern Berkshire County. Yes, the temperature is still high (37 at the GSD Home Office as of 5:30 PM), but as the snow falls, it will suck cold air down to the surface and temps will settle in right around freezing.
The good news is the most recent runs of the models have ticked expected snow totals up a few inches. According to NWS Albany, Pittsfield is now slated to get 11", Savoy 21" (!), and that worrisome southeast corner (Sheffield) now shows 6-8" inches. It appears those those Instagram prayers were successful. (If you don't follow us on Instagram, get in on the action -- @greylock_snow_day.)
Funnier things have happened--and can still happen due to the close call with the temperatures--but we are fairly confident that most students in the County will have a snow day. A few predictable schools have called in their snow days (northwestern elementary schools), and Williams and MCLA have weighed in as well. Go here to see the latest schools on the list.
One other aspect of this storm that we haven't addressed is the heaviness of the snow. Snow to liquid ratios could be as low as 7:1. Most storms come in at 10-12 inches per 1 inch of liquid. We are supposed to see 2+ inches of liquid with this storm, so that's why snow totals are so high. Area physical therapists are going to be busy next week!
We're hoping the major school districts will make their decision tonight, but, of course, they are not obligated to do so. We think almost everyone will have a snow day tomorrow, but some of you will have to set the alarm to find out.
And here are some more maps!
A few schools and colleges have announced their plans for tomorrow. Here is what we know so far (LAST UPDATE: Thurs. Dec. 15 11:26).
SNOW DAY:
Just a few hours now until the first flakes will be a-flyin'. The radar would indicate that snow is practically on our doorstep, but the storm is running into a wall of cold air, which will keep the snow at bay for several more hours. NWS Albany is saying that snow will begin around 8 PM, but we won't be surprised if it starts an hour or so earlier.
The best news we can give right now is that a Winter Storm Warning is up for the entire county as well as Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut. Why is the Litchfield County info important? It means that meteorologists think the cold air will be more firmly entrenched, which means a longer initial period of snow for this storm.
The basic contour of this storm is as thus: Snow tonight with some heavy bands after midnight. Possible changeover to rain in locations below 1000'. All snow still above 1000'. Toward the evening a return to all snow for even the valley locations, with an additional 2-4" expected by Saturday morning. We expect 4-8" on the western edge of the county and 8-12" on the east side. The highest locations in the county should see between 14-18" (Savoy, Hinsdale, Florida Mountain).
The two big factors that should give most students the full snow day are 1) the timing; 2) the threat of snow throughout the day on Friday. Even if there is a changeover to rain, it's going to be very hard for any rational Superintendent to send students out into the elements. Also, a sneaky third factor will be the wind. Gusts of up to 45 miles per hour will make for even more treacherous conditions during the day on Friday.
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| From NWS Boston. |
So, we are going to bump up the meter slightly to reflect the wind factor, which we had not considered yesterday or earlier in the week.
Besides the snow/rain changeover, the big question mark is will Superintendents make the call at the end of the school day, the early evening, or tomorrow morning.
It is not our style to pull back the curtain and divulge the particulars of GSD Staff meetings, but boy, oh, boy was this afternoon's meeting a doozy! Let's just say my hands are still shaking as we nearly came to blows.
To put it mildly, there's some disagreement about what the heck is going to happen on Friday. While we--actually I, as the chief coms guy of this operation--pride ourselves on the consistency of our messaging about snow days, this mid-December Miller B nor'easter has divided the office. We think the division will be reparable, but right now there's not a lot of warm and fuzzy banter in the break room.
But enough of that. You came here for solid snow day info. And here's what we got:
While most indicators would suggest we will have widespread snow days and delays for everyone in the county (yes!), the data we're seeing about air temperature is deeply concerning (no!). A good majority of the staff thinks that the models are over-inflating the temperatures and tonight's radiational cooling plus the heavy rate of snowfall (once it starts) will suppress temperatures and give the whole county a plowable snow event.
But there's a loud and veteran faction on the staff who think the warm air--temps will be above freezing at the start of the storm tomorrow night--is going to suppress snow totals drastically. And with some models predicting temperatures into the mid and even upper 30s during the day on Friday, they think this storm has major bust potential.
So, we're going to hold the Confidence Meter right where it is for now.* We love the fact that we're seeing eye-popping snow total projections for the eastern half of the county. Florida, Savoy, Hoosac Valley, Central Berkshire--you should all be safe and have a snow day as the elevation in your district means buses will have a devil of a time on Friday morning. Those schools more toward the east and in lower elevations--North Adams, Mount Greylock, Pittsfield, Lee, Lenox, Berkshire Hills, Southern Berkshire--it's going to be touch and go. At the very least delays are highly likely, but if we see the changeover to rain in that 4-5 AM slot, then Superintendents are going to have a much harder decision.
We know most of you would like to know if any Superintendents will call the snow day tomorrow, either at the end of school or on Thursday night. A few schools and districts will have that luxury--our northwestern elementary schools and Central Berkshire, most likely--but most will not. Perhaps they will surprise that, but that's gut feeling tonight.
Again, we should underscore that things are looking very favorable, but there's a big "but" looming out there in the form of dreaded warm air. The last thing we want to do is get your hopes up only to see them obliterated on Friday morning when you are staring in the bathroom mirror brushing your teeth and asking yourself, "Why am I going to school today?"
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| Nice map, WNYT, Channel 13 in Albany. And Snow Map-alooza--coming tomorrow! |
*A reminder about percentages on the Meter. The percentage is combination of two projections: 1) The chance any student in Berkshire County has of getting a delay, snow day, or release; and 2) The percentage of schools in the County to have a delay, snow day, or release. So, a 15% chance of a snow day means that you have a 15% chance of being in a school that will have a snow day because we think 15% of schools in Berkshire County will have a snow day.
In the immortal words of Professor Hinkle: "Messy, messy, messy!"
We have a really interesting and complicated storm setting up for Friday. This Miller B is proving to be difficult. We truly wish there was more certainty at this point--as do the meteorologists in our region--but this one is going to very hard to predict. And chances are good that the prediction is not what actually happens.
The semi-good news is that we have a Winter Storm Watch up for Northern Berkshire County. This means the potential for 7+ inches of snow exists. And the timing could not be better--7 PM Thursday through Saturday morning.
The bad news is that warm air is going to play a big role with this storm and could creep far enough north to make this a snow-to-rain event for everyone in Berkshire County. We are seeing some models that are keeping the cold air in place longer, which means all snow even in the valleys. Other models show a nose of warmer air pushing up from the Hudson Valley and extending into the southern and western portion of the County.
The initial NWS-Albany features a blend of these models, and--if it's accurate--we'll see several districts call snow days for Friday.
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| Quite the spread of snow totals for the County. |
Given the timing and the threat for high snow amounts, as long as it's snowing between 5 and 6 AM, many districts will go with the snow day. If the conversion to rain has occurred at that hour, then we could see delays for several districts. Either way, the consensus of the GSD Staff is that most students in Berkshire County will have a delay or full snow day on Friday.
As we get within 48 hours of a storm, one model that meteorologists like to use is called the NAM. It stands for North American Mesoscale, but it's a different model than the other North American model we always talk about in relation to the Euro model. The NAM is a better regional model because it takes into account small-scale weather phenomena. (How it does that is above our pay grade.) So let us check in with the NAM tomorrow and we should have a better read on what the storm should do.
We would like to see two things happen: 1) We want to see the Winter Storm Watch extended to South County. 2) We want to see those Watches upgraded to Warnings. If that happens on Wednesday or early Thursday, then enjoy your three-day weekend.
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| Image courtesy of the National Weather Service. |
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| The North American model for snow totals by 6 AM Saturday. The NA model takes the storm farther south and east. |
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| The Euro model for snow totals by midnight Friday. The dry slot south Albany is concerning, but the rest looks great. |
So far, road crews have put in good work and cleaned up the streets. Most schools appear to be in full session. Here's what we have so far (last update 6:53 AM):
TWO-HOUR DELAY:
BART
Berkshire Community College
Hancock
Hillcrest Academy
Mount Greylock Regional
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield
Berlin
New Lebanon
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union (Mt. Anthony)
Just a quick update. We know many of you are very eager for the first delay or snow day of the year, but it's probably not going to be this storm. We'll get 3-4 inches in most locations, with slightly higher amounts for the eastern hill towns.
The problem for delays tomorrow (Monday) is twofold. One is that much of the snow is melting on the road. Two is the timing of the end of the snow. It's still slated to end around 1 AM. Maybe a generous superintendent will throw you a bone and allow a little time to clean off the car, but we wouldn't count on it.
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| Not encouraging. |
And although it doesn't have to do with snow, there's A LOT of sickness in schools these days. The flu is doing its best Covid impersonation. While we did hear rumors that some elementary schools in the area shut down recently due to a high number of sick teachers, it's possible some schools could close for a day or two this week due to widespread illnesses. It's not clear what one or two days off will do to reduce the spread of the flu bug, but it's possibly a strategy school officials might employ before our next vacation. We'll just have to see about that.
We don't have much new to report about the bigger Friday storm. Models will start to move toward agreement Tuesday and Wednesday.
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| Not bad for a clipper system. |
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| Euro model for next Friday/Friday night. This will change so don't get TOO excited. |
Maybe, just maybe, things are starting to pick up for all of us snow lovers in the Berkshires. With our collective GSD ears to the ground, we are picking up rumblings about a potential messy commute on Monday.
Despite a VERY balmy day today (Wednesday), temps will begin to drop as we move toward the weekend. The Thursday through Saturday period should be relatively dry. But on Sunday a storm system will move in from the Great Lakes. This clipper system should be able to pick up some additional Atlantic moisture and generate a swath of precipitation for our region.
If there is enough cold air in place, we could see a few inches of snow right on into the morning commute on Monday. The North American model is showing 3-4 inches for the Berkshires, while the Euro only shows an inch or so. These models will change, of course, but there is reason for some optimism here. The best outcome will be delays for most schools.
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| Probably too aggressive a forecast for Monday, but one can only hope. ( |
As for a major whopper of a storm, we're not seeing anything taking shape for later next week. There will be plenty of moisture in the air, but it simply will be too warm for a prolonged period of snow.
Alas, the doldrums of December.
Despite the gradual build-up of holiday festiveness in the air, we are not seeing much on the short radar that would suggest any meteorological festiveness.
This week (Dec. 5-11) will be warm and wet early and then cooler by the weekend. After a dry Monday, we'll see a soaking rain during the day on Tuesday and well into Wednesday. Temps will be in the mid-50s so there's zero chance of any changeover even on the backside of the storm. By Thursday things will dry out as colder air comes into the Berkshires.
There's some debate about what's going to happen on Friday and the weekend. One model is showing a cooler, drier weekend. Other models point to rain and snow showers (Friday evening especially). We'll know more in a few days, but we're not expecting to get too excited over anything on the snow front.
There is some cause for optimism, though. We are starting to seem some encouraging forecasts for the Northeast for the middle of next week (Dec. 14-15, see below). The polar vortex is starting to shed some of its cold air, which could impact our area and set up a much more active snow pattern. And it's possible we could see that pattern continue right into the Christmas holiday.
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| European model for snowfall by next Thursday. Models notoriously exaggerate snow totals this far out, but we'd take 50% accuracy, right? |
There is a chance the second half of the month could make up for the poor start to December. Many more updates about the changing pattern will be coming later this week.
