Hot Start To 2021...(and by "hot" we mean "snowy")

Happy last day of 2020! Of course everything is going to magically return to normal at midnight tonight. 2021 is going to be the best!

We actually have good news on the snow front. Our somewhat dour prediction yesterday has brightened. We could see up to 6 inches of new snow for parts of the Berkshires by noon on Monday.

Friday's expected snow

The Friday night storm is minor, but there will be a period of all snow at its onset. Snow should start around 9 PM (south to north) and then change over to sleet and freezing rain by the morning. What is not clear is the timing of the changeover, which will impact how much snow piles up. NWS Albany is expecting 1-2 inches in South County where the changeover will occur sooner, and 2-3 inches in North County. Freezing rain and drizzle could extend to noon on Saturday.

We'll get a break from frozen precipitation for about 30 hours and then a coastal storm--a secondary low--will form and bring more snow to our area. The European model continues to show significant snowfall for the Berkshires--see below--while the North American model is now indicating some accumulation for the Berkshires but only 1-3 inches. 

We'll probably see these models meet in the middle somewhere, which means 3-5 inches by late morning Monday, with east-facing slopes in higher elevations getting the highest amounts. Cross country skiing should be able to resume on Monday.

A very assertive prediction from the European model for Sunday

Have a safe New Year's Eve celebration, and we'll have an update on both storms at some point on Friday morning.

Icy Night and Possible Weekend Snow

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires that will start this evening at 7 PM. The reason for the Advisory is the possibility for light icing to occur. It ends at 7 AM Thursday.

This is a relatively minor event and may amount to nothing. Some areas could pick up a dusting or half inch of snow as well as a 10th of an inch of ice. Travel could be difficult later this evening, but should not be impossible.

As for accumulating snow. As in get-out-the-snow-boots snow. As for wax-up-the-skis snow...we're still in a holding pattern. We might get a couple of inches Friday night into Saturday, and there is a small chance of a developing coastal storm for Sunday night. 

The European model is currently showing moderate snow (3 inches for the Friday night storm; 4-5 inches for the Sunday storm), but the North American model only shows an inch or two for Friday and a washout on Sunday. Unfortunately, the North American model seems to be more realistic as we simply won't have enough cold air in place for a big snow. We're not saying it's not possible but just unlikely.

The North American model is being stingy with the snow...

Certainly if the Euro model proves to be right, snow days and fully remote days are in the discussion for Monday.

Watch the ice tonight, and we'll watch for developments regarding the weekend storms.

High Wind Warning and a Flood Watch For Thursday Night/Friday

Old Saint Nick is going to have to make up time in other parts of the world on Thursday as he's going to find the sledding very tough in the Berkshires on the jolly fellow's Big Night.

NWS Albany has issued a Flood Watch and a High Wind Warning for Christmas Eve. Rain should not start until early afternoon, but it will pick up in intensity as we head into the overnight hours. Forecasters and models are still expecting 1-3 inches of rain by Friday afternoon which, coupled with melting snow, could create flooding conditions. Unusually--for this time of year, anyway--the temps will increase throughout Thursday night and will approach 60 degrees (!) by 8 AM Friday.

Perhaps an even bigger concern, though, is the wind. Things will really crank up Thursday evening with sustained winds over 20 mph and possible gusts between 50 and 60 mph. Power outages are a distinct possibility for the Berkshires overnight, which is less than ideal for us residents as well as the folks who have to attend to downed power lines.

The rain will taper to showers by midday, and then the temps will slowly start to fall. Because models are now expecting a slower decrease in the temperatures, there is less worry about flash freezing Friday afternoon. But that also means that we're less likely to get snow on the back end of the storm. So, by Saturday morning we'll be left with grassy yards that are half-soggy, half-frozen with maybe a patch of leftover snow here and there.

Fortunately, we will have two opportunities for snow next week to freshen up the place. The first will come Monday night with possibly a few inches in the evening and into Tuesday. The next opportunity will be toward the end of the week (Thursday/Friday). We're in an active period right now so the opportunities to get snow should keep coming.

Happy Holidays to everyone who reads GSD, and stay safe over the next few days!

Heavy Rain Storm For Thursday Then Cold

Sadly, our big snow from last Thursday will just about disappear by Christmas day as above average temps during the next three days and a soaking rain on Thursday will do major damage to our (short-lived) snow base.

Temps will be in the mid-30s the next few days until the rain arrives, spiking the thermometer toward 50 degrees on Thursday. And the rain will come down in buckets as we might see 2" of liquid in some parts of the Berkshires by noon on Friday. With all that melting snow, flooding will be an issue on Christmas day.

Sadly, these are measurements for expected rain on Thursday. If had cold air were in place for snow, we would see snow totals that would have rivaled last week's storm.

The one silver lining is that the rain is associated with a strong cold front, and on the back end of the storm, we could see an inch or two in the Berkshires and make it look like winter again. It's no guarantee, but it's the best we can offer for you at this point.

The mercury will be in a free fall on Friday. We'll start out in the 40s and by early Saturday morning we'll be in the teens. Saturday will be brisk with high temps in the mid 20s with maybe a stray flake or two making it all the way to the Berkshires from the Great Lakes.

Further out we are keeping tabs on a disturbance on the 29th that could generate a few inches of snow. if that one doesn't pan out, we still are expecting to see an active storm period in the first few weeks of January.

Get out the holiday galoshes for Thursday, and then you can return to your more normal winter footwear  for the weekend.

Winter Storm Wrap-up; What's Next?

For a storm that got in and out in less than 18 hours, it certainly did its thing "as advertised." We got 14" at the GSD Home Office, and snow reports from the around the county show a high of 23" in Lanesborough, 16.7" in Cheshire and 12" to 14" in Pittsfield and South County. 

At some point Wednesday night models had pushed good portions of the Berkshires into an 18-24" region, but some of those very heavy bands pushed off to the west. The Binghamton, NY area got absolutely pummeled with the airport there reporting an even 40" of snow. (If you want to see snow totals from the entire region, follow this link.)

As for days off from school, the one exciting development was that Pittsfield had to change from a fully remote day to a full snow day due to power outages. Hopefully those students found out early enough to enjoy a day out in the snow.

For the next snow opportunity, we might see a few nuisance snow opportunities starting on Sunday and continuing in the early part of the week. Then, temps warm up into the 40s. There is a forecast for precipitation on Christmas Eve but it's for rain. That rain will be out in front of a cold front, and when the cold front does come through, we just might see a conversion to ice and/or snow on Santa's big day. We'll definitely be focusing our energies on that rain/cold front in the next few days.

We also should report that a few outlets are forecasting an active early January period for storms. It's all connected monitoring of the Polar Vortex. The longer-range forecasters are very excited about that period and think the Northeast will be very stormy and snowy. 

Cancellations and a Dreaded New Category -- Remote Days

Here's a running list of school closings and remote days (that we know of). Current info and commentary about the storm is below:

UPDATED at 8:05 PM Dec. 16

Adams/Cheshire (Remote Day)

Berkshire Hills (CLOSED)

Berkshire Waldorf (CLOSED)

Childcare of the Berkshires (CLOSED)

Clarksburg (CLOSED)

Emma Miller (CLOSED)

Farmington River (CLOSED)

Florida (CLOSED)

Gabriel Abbott Memorial (CLOSED)

Hancock (CLOSED)

Lee (CLOSED

Lenox (CLOSED)

Mount Greylock Regional (Remote Day)

North Adams (Remote Day)

Pittsfield (Remote Day)

Richmond (CLOSED)

Southern Berkshire (CLOSED)

Southwest Vermont SU (Remote Day)

December Storm Midday Update

Despite GSD skepticism yesterday about how big this storm will end up being, local forecasters continue to raise our expected snow totals. Notably, NWS Albany thinks the entire county will get over a foot of snow, with some locations in the south getting closer to 18".

NWS Albany

One really strong signal that it's going to snow--and snow hard--is that it's 15 degrees outside with complete cloud cover as of 10 AM Wednesday. Any moisture that overrides that cold air will become snow. Because it's so cold, a lot of that liquid will evaporate initially, but then by about 7 or 8 PM, the snow will starting making it to the ground in the Berkshires.

NWS Albany storm starting times.

Just over a year ago we had a 36-hour event (in early December) that produced 16-24" in and around Berkshire County. While this storm will not last for 36 hours, it could certainly challenge those snow totals.

From Matt Noyes over in Boston.

One other aspect of this storm that we failed to mention in earlier posts--beware of the wind. We're supposed to see wind gusts well into the 30 mph range in the overnight hours. Should those winds continue into the morning hours, travel will be very unsafe for the commute.

Get the tall boots out--we're all going to need them.

Winter Storm Warning Is In Effect (Wednesday Night/Thursday)

The NWS Albany has announced a Winter Storm Warning for the Berkshires starting Wednesday afternoon. The recent runs of the models have come more into agreement and shifted the track of the storm slightly northward. Local meteorologists are now calling for the entire county to get around a foot of snow with slightly lower totals north of Pittsfield.

A Boston area forecast.

Despite the consensus of the models, we think the precipitation totals are slightly juiced and, because very cold air is in place, we are likely to end up in the 8-10" range with an inch or two more along the Connecticut border. We won't be surprised if some of the models ratchet snow totals back a notch or two tomorrow. Either way, snow lovers are still going to be pleased by the time the storm wraps up early Thursday afternoon.

NWS Albany's latest snow map.

Had we been operating under old school attendance rules, we would be feeling very confident at this point for widespread snow days on Thursday. With perfect timing, plenty of cold air, lots of moisture, as well as the early Winter Storm Warning declaration, this storm would be a no-brainer for county-wide day off. Alas, most students will not be sleeping in on Thursday, giving us reason number 143 why Zoom learning is "not ideal." 

WWLP checks ins. (Just a question: what is 8-12"+? Is that the same as 9-13"? 10-14"?)

We'll update again tomorrow whether or not there are additional developments, but it would be wise for everyone to take precautions for heavy snow Wednesday night and very slow travel conditions Thursday morning.

Model Disagreement

A pleasant, light snow fell for many hours today at the GSD office. Because of the temperatures above freezing, the snow mostly just stuck to the grass and trees and did not impact the day in a meaningful way.

With temperatures on the decline, black ice could be a concern tomorrow morning in the usual places.

Now all of our energy is focused on the big coastal storm. The good news is that plenty of cold air will be in place for snow. The typical snow-to-liquid ratio is 10:1 but for this storm forecasters are expecting 12 or 14:1 to rations. No matter how much snow we get, those higher ratios means we'll see a fluffy, light snow that should be relatively easy to shovel.

NWS-Albany's first crack at a snow map for Wednesday/Thursday.

The bad news is the models are all over the place. One North American model is predicting much lower precipitation amounts. Another is predicting a direct hit for the Berkshires (12-16"). The crowd-pleasing Euro has strong precipitation values but takes the track of the storm to our south. We've even checked in with the Canadian model and that one also keeps the storm slightly to our south.

Here's one North American Model...

...and here's the other. This is what happens when the models can't decide on the track.

So, what does this mean? 

We think that South County has a much higher chance of 6+ inches of snow. The NWS has already issued Winter Storm Watches for Litchfield (CT) and Duchess County (NY), and it's likely that Berkshire County will get a Watch at some point tomorrow.

Because there likely will be a strong cutoff line--where the cold air blocks the northward moving moisture--we could easily see a situation where Sheffield, Otis and Sandisfield see 10" and North Adams, Clarksburg, and Williamstown only get only 3". Pittsfield would split the middle. 

We are definitely trying to gather as much information as possible to help us better understand just how high that cut off line will be. If the line moves into southern Vermont, all of Berkshire County will be over 6 inches with 12 for towns closer to Connecticut. 

Hopefully by Tuesday night we will have more definitive information for you. The one aspect of the storm that is more certain at this point is the timing of the start of the snow: late Wednesday night.

Mid-Atlantic/New England Storm Update

If you've been dreaming of a white Christmas lately, you may be in luck. We have two shots at getting snow this week, one minor and one decidedly more significant.

The first opportunity for snow is throughout the day on Monday. A storm to the south will push into our area and lead to steady light snow throughout the day. Folks on southern Berkshire County stand to get more of the snow--possibly 2"--while those in central and northern parts of the county will only see an inch.

Then, all attention moves to a bigger coastal storm late Wednesday night. Right now travel on Wednesday should not be an issue. Accuweather is predicting the snow to start around midnight for the Berkshires, and it should come down--possibly heavy at times--through noon on Thursday. Travel on Thursday morning could be difficult.

The darker green is the forecast for heavy snow on Wednesday night and Thursday. The lighter green is for heavy precipitation.

Let's talk about best and worst case scenarios. (We'll let you decide which is the worst and which is the best.) One scenario is that the storm doesn't quite push far enough north and drifts underneath us out to see. In that situation, we could see 3-6" in South County and 1-3" for the rest of us. The other scenario is that the storm "bombs out" on the coast and pushes heavy frozen precipitation well into Western Mass and southern Vermont and New Hampshire. If that were to happen, South County is looking at 10-16" and 4-8" in North County.

Accuweather meteorologists are fully on board for a big storm.

Most of the weather experts we consult are very confident that it's going to snow hard. The exact track is still to be determined, but we the whole county should wake up to a winter wonderland on Thursday.

Coastal Storm With A Side (Note) of Gritters

A couple of tidbits we learned in the GSD Office this past week:

Fun fact: In the UK, a snow plow is called a "gritter." (In addition to pushing snow out of the way, the snow plow in some places also puts a gritty substance on the road for better traction. Thus, gritters makes perfect sense.)

Really fun fact: In Scotland and England--similar to the NORAD Santa Tracker--you can go to a map on a website and track what roads the gritters are on in real time. (Brilliant! We definitely have the technology to do this.)

Extraordinarily fun fact: The gritters in the UK have names! There's Salty, Snow Destroyer, Ice Queen and Sprinkles. Pretty standard fare. But there's also Gangsta Granny Gritty, Gritney Spears, Spready Mercury, and Gritter Thunberg. (Outstanding!)

However great these names are, we think we can do better. So, if you have a pun-tastic name for a Berkshire County plow, DM GSD at Twitter or Facebook and we'll post some of the best entries in the next few days.

Looming Storm

After the storm bust last weekend, it was nice to see a steady snowfall all through the day on Wednesday in the Berkshires. Up at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, we picked up 1.2 inches that, unfortunately, evaporated during the day today due to the milder temps.

The exciting news is that models and forecasters have identified a sizable storm for Wednesday night/Thursday early AM next week. We always say this a full six days before a storm, but it's way too early to get too amped about this just yet. 

The Euro is coming in white hot for next week's storm at this stage in the proceedings.

But...the ingredients are there for a big one. There's plenty of moisture. Cold air will be in place. And the storm should rapidly intensify on the coast. The big question, of course, will be the track of the storm. Right now the models are not in agreement--not a great sign--but the European models favors a much bigger storm for the Berkshires, as the graphic above indicates. 

Take this for what it's worth, but it's possible we could see a storm in the 5-10" range next Wednesday night.

All we have right now is hope. So let's lean into this one. Do your snow prayers and snow dances and let's kick off winter 2020-21 with a classic New England coastal storm.

Winter Weather Advisory: Snow for Saturday Afternoon

Well, everything was trending toward the Berkshires getting its first Winter Storm Warning of the season yesterday, but the models jogged the storm to the east today and we were downgraded to a mere Winter Weather Advisory. Fortunately, snow lovers, this storm won't be a total bust.

NWS Albany is forecasting 3-6" for the Berkshires with the bulk of the snow coming Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Higher elevations should get more snow than locations under 1500 feet. As the map below shows, east-facing slopes should see the most snow.

NWS Albany

When you wake up tomorrow, it should be raining, and then as we move toward midday, wet snow flakes will mix in before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. The snow could come down heavily for a stretch, which will make for slippery travel.

As the rain changes over to snow, we'll also see the winds start to whip up. It will be quite windy tomorrow evening as the storm pulls away. The precipitation should end well before midnight.

There's no great window tomorrow to get out for a walk, run, and/or tree purchase. If you don't mind wet snow and wind, it might be fun to get outside in the afternoon and throw a few snowballs around and build a snowperson. As long as there's enough of it, the snow will be great packing snow.

After this weekend, it looks dry for a stretch and then we're eyeing another disturbance for next Monday.

Winter Storm Watch For Saturday, December 5

This afternoon (Thursday), the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires. The Watch begins Saturday morning and expires Sunday morning.

The weather experts are now saying that phasing will occur--a low pressure system from the southern Plains meeting a trough dropping in from the Great Lakes--and a storm will strengthen as moves up the east coast.

Interior Maine, central and northern New Hampshire, and Vermont will be the big winners for this storm, but Berkshire County could see 4-7 inches (south to north). The snow will be wet and heavy especially early on as we will still be in the 30s during the day on Saturday.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany

Right now the worst of the storm looks like it will occur late morning and early afternoon on Saturday. So if you are planning to get your tree this weekend, you might want to get an earlier start to your day, and even then it will be wet out (rain mixing with snow).

This storm will be a strong one so that means that as it exits through the Gulf of Maine, winds will whip up considerably Saturday night and into Sunday. With heavy wet snow probably sticking to trees, more downed limbs than usual are expected which would of course lead to a greater chance for power outages. 

Bernie Rayno and the gang at Accuweather are fully on board for a big one.

Fortunately for Superintendents, this first real storm of the season will fall on the weekend. In the pre-Covid days, this storm would have made for a tough call due to the timing. But, as most schools are fully remote at the moment, had this storm fallen on a school day, students would have likely experienced their first remote-snow-day-but-not-a-snow-day. Yay technology.

If the models end up coming into more agreement about the track, we'll be upgraded from a Watch to a Warning at some point on Friday. Despite the potential for a Warning, the GSD staff does not think this will be that big of a storm. The warm air has us concerned, and that will keep snow totals in the 2-4 inch range, not 4-7.

Updates to follow on Friday.

We Might Have Found The Snow

Happy December, Fans of the Flake! One more month to go and we can wave 2020 a hearty farewell and bon voyage. (And don't let the door hit you on the rear end on the way out!)

It's a weekend event so it's not that exciting, but we might need shovels come Sunday. It's a complicated mess--it's always a hope and prayer when we need two systems to phase, as is the case with this storm--but we're starting to see some signs from the experts that a coastal storm could form and strengthen.

As one might expect, the models are not in agreement. The Euro gives us snow; the North American takes the precipitation out to sea. 

Here's what the Euro is showing us:

Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather

The snow totals for central New York definitely feel too high given the warm air we've had recently, but temps are on the decline and eventually we'll drop into the 20s by Sunday evening.

Be aware that we do not have much faith in a forecast of 3-5 inches for the Berkshires this weekend, but we wanted to get out in front of it and let you know the possibility exists. It wouldn't hurt to re-locate those shovels.

Where Is The Snow?

After a snow flirtation earlier in October, this fall has been mostly mild and not terribly wet. While that's been great for the pandemic--more time for outside activities!--it's been less great for the plowers and the Berkshire ski industry.

The pandemic cancelled the 2020 World Cup alpine skiing event that would have taken place at Killington in Vermont this very weekend, but even without Covid-19, it's unclear if the warm conditions would have allowed the event to take place at all.

This is all to say that it's been a very warm fall. (Many cities in New England are reporting a top 10 warmest November.) But there are some signs that are indicating that big changes are in store for mid-December.

Most National Weather Service outlets are forecasting a warm December for the entire country. While a warm December would not rule out snowstorms for our region, it's certainly possible that we could have a virtually snow-less December.

But some experts we follow are eyeing a turbulent and potentially snowy mid-December period. We do expect to see temps turn much colder--highs in the mid-30s--for the second week of December after a weekend of rain (5-6th). We might catch some snow on the tail end of the departing storm next weekend, but it likely will not be more than an inch.

The Accuweather long-range forecast. (Yes, it's a bit thirsty on our part, but desperate times call for desperate measures.)

If we can get a good burst of cold air that blankets the Northeast, then the meeting of the warm air in the central part of the country with that cold air in the Northeast could lead to an active period with several storms possible.

Even though a snowless December would be the absolute perfect ending to the worst year of the 21st century, we think we will get that cold air and at least one medium-sized snow storm in December. Whether or not districts call snow days or a remote day is a conversation we'll need to have--hopefully--in a few weeks' time.

Light Snow Monday & Monday Night Then Warm Air Returns

The first snow of the season was pretty much as predicted. The US model was closer with its accuracy, as we picked up 1.5" at the GSD Home Office before it melted. Higher elevations in the Berkshires saw close to 6" in some locations.

We have another round of snow showers/snow headed our way for Monday. Snow is less likely to accumulate throughout the county, but most of us will see a period of snow showers throughout the day with an inch or less of accumulation.

NWS Albany isn't giving us much to work with.

The big difference tomorrow (compared to Friday) will be the wind. We could see gusts close to 50 mph in the afternoon. Coupled with temps in the mid-30s, the gusty winds will bring wind chill values into the low 20s. For anyone exercising or training outside tomorrow afternoon, it will be blustery and cold. Cover up.

As the storm pulls away from our region, the lake effect snow machine will crank up in Western New York. Some of those flakes could make it all the way to Western Mass in the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday. Black ice could be a problem on Election Day. If you haven't dropped off your ballot yet, the weather after 9 AM should not impede your travel to the polling station.

After Tuesday, though, things start to heat up...temperature-wise. We'll get into the 50s on that day and then meteorologists are expecting about a week of temps in the mid-60s. The warmest day looks to be Monday, with some towns approaching the 70-degree mark. Enjoy it because it might be the last we see of the 60s for several months.

Winter Weather Advisory for Friday

Our regional weather experts (NWS Albany) have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Friday. The advisory calls for 1-3 inches of snow between 4 am and noon. 

Predicted snow totals this low don't usually warrant Winter Weather Advisories, but because there are so many leaves still on the trees, there will be higher chance of downed branches, power outages and other associated peril. Plus, people are out of practice driving in the snow so it's better to be a little cautious with with the Advisory for the first snow of the season. 

FYI, in the yearly battle of the models--US vs Euro--we are rooting for the Euro for this round (if you are pro-snow, which, duh, you should be if you're reading this post). The Euro is predicting 2-3 inches for most parts with 4-5" possible on the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires. The US model has upped its snow prediction slightly today and now has 1-2 inches in most places with 3 inches on those slopes facing the Pioneer Valley. That they've come into closer agreement today makes a 1-2 inch covering of snow during the Friday morning commute almost a certainty. Or so we think.

From CBS Channel 6 in Albany

One other thing--the temps will not need to get below freezing for the rain to change to snow. Because the coldest air is aloft and not at ground level, we'll see snow begin to fall with temps in the mid-30s tomorrow morning.

We'll bump the Confidence Meter a smidge to reflect that chance for some delays tomorrow. Candidates with a higher chance for a delay tomorrow would be Central Berkshire, Clarksburg, Florida--the usual suspects for elevation-dependent storms.

Berkshire County Snow For Friday

 Just a quick update on the timing of the storm for tomorrow, as it could impact the morning commute.

The storm formerly known as Hurricane Zeta will track into the Northeast by midday today (Thursday) and give the Berkshires a soaking rain all afternoon and into the evening. Outdoor activities will not be particularly fun today with steady rain and temps in the mid 40s.

Overnight, we will see cold air sucked in to the region from the north. Just how far down the cold air comes will determine the timing of the transition from rain to snow. Higher elevations will get colder faster, which is why meteorologists are predicting more snow for the mountainous terrain on the Mass/Vermont border.

From our friends at WNYT Channel 13, Albany.

Also in the mix is the potential development of an intensifying coastal low pressure system which could generate a quick shot of snow around the time of the morning commute. That's the part of this complicated system that should give everyone in Berkshire County an inch or so of snow.

If the length of the school day is shortened tomorrow, it probably will be in the form of a delay. We don't think there will be many delays called--and we presume that a delay would be for in-person attendees as well as Zoomers--but it's within the realm of possibility. 

NWS Albany

Regardless of what happens with the snow tonight, Friday will be a damp, raw day with temps topping out in the high 30s. The precipitation should taper to snow showers by midday and then end in the afternoon. Temps could bottom out in the high teens Friday night. Welcome back, Old Man Winter.

We're Back! (Because It's October in the Berkshires)

Hello, Flake Followers! We're very excited to be back for another--hopefully very predictable--season of Greylock Snow Day.

You're probably wondering about the fate of ol' GSD in the new world of virtual learning. You may have read this piece. Or this article. Or even this one. But, we are happy to state that reports of GSD's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

The Home Office in Williamstown will stay open. Even though the day-off-from-school type of snow day may be a thing of the past (more about that below), school districts are still going to be impelled to cancel travel to school on days that are simply too treacherous. We will definitely still fire up the supercomputers whenever a storm is lurking, and we will do our best to offer spot-on predictions about delays or cancelled travel for in-person students. The show will go on.

May-be Snow This Weekend

Like everything else these days, May snowstorms are polarizing.

A good number of people around these parts are against May snowstorms. For them, it's spring so it's time to move on. Typically, these folks are the type that would love a two-foot snowstorm in March, but then once they turn the calendar to April, they don't want the temperature to drop below 70 until October.

Then there are those for whom any snow is good snow. Especially an unusual snow fall, like a May storm. They crave weather oddities and records broken, regardless of the harm done to daffodils and forsythia. Typically, these people love to talk about weather any old time of year, and this May storm is a nice opportunity to talk about something other than the C-word.

The official GSD position on these two camps is don't be a snow hypocrite. If you get all fired up for an October storm, then you should offer up that same energy for April and May storms. Your appreciation of snow should be calendarially symmetrical.

So...what's coming this weekend? Ultimately, probably not that much. Precipitation will roll in Friday afternoon and evening and get very interesting after midnight as a coastal storm potentially "bombs" out. Two things will occur. The precipitation will increase significantly and unseasonably cold air will get sucked down from the north and overspread New England. The rain will then turn to wet snow.

Elevation will play a critical role with this storm (as is the case for late winter and spring storms). Higher terrains could see 3-4 inches of very wet snow. Valley locations will likely see 1-2 inches of snow that mostly just covers the grass. Snow should stop falling by midday on Saturday.

Our suggestion is that you keep the shovel handy just in case this storm packs a little more punch than will be advertised the next few days. While this storm will probably end up being more of a nuisance snow than a major event, there is definitely the possibility for damage to yard plants and trees.

We hesitate to do this, but we're going to show you the Euro model for this storm. Don't start spreading this image all over the internet as it's a VERY aggressive forecast at the moment and most meteorologists thinks it's running a little hot. We probably won't get 5" for most of Berkshire County.

Euro model for Saturday, May 9.

We'll update tomorrow and/or Friday if we see any big changes to total snow forecasts.

Winter Storm Warning For Friday/Saturday April 17/18

Just so you're informed--and just for our records--we have been upgraded from a Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. New England lives up to its reputation.

We're now expecting 4-8 inches for the County. Roads will definitely get slick if this storm pans out, so be prepared for slow travel tomorrow morning. But should you really be going anywhere anyway?

Looks like the weekend yard work will have to wait for another week.

Check @GreylockSnowDa1 for snow totals tomorrow morning.

More Snow Friday Night

This oddly inverted winter continues as we prepare for our third (minor) April snow event heading into the weekend.

From Wednesday night's disturbance, we measured a fairly robust 2.75 inches at the GSD Home Office. The snow flakes must have been fairly large--the staff was sound asleep when it came down--and there was no wind so that allowed the snow to pile up easily on grassy surfaces.

And it looks like tomorrow night we'll experience an almost identical scenario. Some of the models have us in the 4-6" range for tomorrow night into Saturday, but more realistically we'll see 2-4 inches of fluffy, sticky snow, with higher totals on the east-facing slopes.

All the way from Peoria...

The snow will take longer to melt on Saturday, as clouds will persist throughout the day, but it will all be gone by noon on Sunday.

There is great snowperson-building potential on Saturday, as well as a chance for some sledding. We encourage you to take advantage of the opportunity as we really think--and we mean it this time--that this is the final measurable snow of the season.

Snow Tonight

We thought we were finished for the year, but we kept one computer going in the GSD Home Office just in case. And sure enough, the snow alarm went off earlier this afternoon, announcing a chance for measurable snow by morning.

It won't be a lot--maybe an inch--and most of us will be asleep when it falls, but we could wake up to a winter wonderland tomorrow in the Berkshires. With temps expected to drop into the high 20s tonight, and a big swath of precipitation moving in from western New York after midnight, we expect grassy surfaces will have at least a coating by tomorrow morning.

Because the sun is much stronger in April, the snow should melt by the afternoon. And the day should be sunny and slightly warmer than today, which felt rather brisk.

Stay safe and germ free.

School Closures For the Rest of the Year

With distance learning in full effect for most students in Berkshire County, the next question is, of course, will we return to classrooms this year?

Governor Charlie Baker has given mixed signals so far about a return, but if we look at other states and the trends, it does seem unlikely that students in the Commonwealth will have to put their bodies in their brick-and-mortar classrooms in May or June.

We'll try to update this list as often as we can (from here until the end of the school year). But here are the states that have cancelled public schools for the remainder of the year:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Michigan
Missouri
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
Washington
Vermont
Virginia

Winter's Last Stand

This could be it. Old Man Winter is trying to stay on his feet 'til the final bell, and he might throw a few weak punches tonight in the form of snow showers. Accumulations are unlikely.

Although we can never rule out an early May freak storm, the 10-day forecast would suggest that really might be it for the Old Guy for the winter of 2019-20.

There's a significant amount of energy with today/tonight's storm--as you can tell by the Wind Advisory and the heavy snow falling in central Maine--so enough cold air could get pulled down from Canada to make for snowy conditions tonight and even tomorrow morning.

Travel should not be a problem at all, other than a few limbs in roadways.

OMW's last gasps.

This may be the last time you'll hear from us until we roll out the long-term forecast for the winter of 2020-21 some time in August. Thanks again for reading and your support of GSD!

Maps and Early Releases Tomorrow

Our Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning earlier today, and we could see a range from 1" to 12" in Berkshire County. That's quite a spread, and the reason for such a large range is elevation.

Areas over 1500' will see the highest amounts, likely over 6 inches; lower lying areas will see 3-5" with some folks in the southwest corner of the Berkshires only seeing an inch.

Earlier today we declared an early release for all students in Berkshire County:

Due to the Winter Storm Warning, we're mandating an early release for Berkshire County students on Monday. No distance learning or home-schooling will be allowed after 12 PM in order for students to have ample time to prepare to play in the snow.

— Greylock Snow Day (@GreylockSnowDa1) March 22, 2020

If you look at the radar tomorrow around noon, don't be fooled. You may see a blue blob over you and it won't be snowing. This will happen because the cold air will evaporate the snow before it hits the ground. (This is called virga.) So, snow should really start to fall between 1-2 PM.

Best sledding conditions should be in the early evening--get the flashlights out. The whole event should be wrapped up by sunrise on Tuesday.

Snow Starts Midday Monday

Another bright and sunny day is on tap today, but don't let the sunshine fool you. It's chilly this morning--it got down to 16 degrees at GSD Headquarters last night--and temps will top out in the low 40s today.

Storm onset times from NWS Albany

High clouds will start to move in later today in advance of a coastal storm. Right now the Berkshires have been issued a Winter Storm Watch, calling for the chance at 6+ inches of snow. We're still going with 3-6 inches for the County, with higher amounts in the higher locations. Eastern slope dwellers should be the big winners tomorrow.

The big change from yesterday is the later start to the storm. Snow is expected around 1 PM--give or take an hour.

The snow will be heavy and wet--good for sledding and crafting snowpeople, bad for shoveling. And speaking of shovels, keep yours handy as we may have a few more inches to clean up on Wednesday morning.

NWS Albany is still bullish on this storm.

Classic Spring Snow Storm For Monday

Don't put that shovel away just yet.

Despite temperatures in the high 60s on Friday, cold air has descended upon us and reminded us that it is still March and we live in New England.

It looks like we have fairly robust coastal storm headed our way for Monday. We will likely see 3-6 inches for the Berkshires, with higher amounts toward the Vermont border.

The models are telling two very different stories. The Euro is forecasting 6-7 inches for us, while the North American model only shows an inch or so. Professional meteorologists are siding with the Euro on this one and are all in for half a foot of snow for our area.

The European model forecast for Monday.

Expect to see the snow start mid-morning and last through that period when people who drove to work would return home from their places of employment, a.k.a what we used to call "the evening commute."

Travel should be challenging on Monday, which will make staying at home that much easier. The last flakes should stop falling shortly after midnight. And the hits keep coming as this might not be the end of the snow for the week. Another few inches are forecasted for Wednesday. Good times!

Stay safe and do your part to support local businesses--the ones that are still open--if you have the means to.

Berkshire COVID-19 Cancellations

Despite our typical it's-all-in-good-fun tone to this source for weather information, we have had dozens of requests to post information about school closings in Berkshire County due to COVID-19.

This virus has proven to be an ever-evolving situation. On Sunday (3/15) evening, we just learned that the Commonwealth has ramped up restrictions. Gatherings of 25 people are now strongly discouraged, and--this is not insignificant--schools are now closed through April 7th. If you're not taking this seriously yet and treating it as an extended snow day, then maybe it's time to start putting into effect social distancing guidelines. We're not sure how this will affect private and parochial schools just yet, so we'll have updates about them soon.

PUBLIC SCHOOLS-- **All schools closed through April 7th.**

BART
Berkshire Hills
Central Berkshire Regional 
Clarksburg Elementary
Emma Miller
Florida Elementary
Gabriel Abbott 
Hoosac Valley Regional (Adams/Cheshire)
Lee
Lenox
McCann
Mount Greylock Regional (Williamstown/Lanesborough)
Pittsfield
North Adams
Rowe Elementary
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Supervisory School Union (Wed. 3/18 through Mon. April 6)

PRIVATE SCHOOLS

Berkshire Christian -- closed Monday, March 16 through Friday, March 27.
Berkshire School -- students are on delayed spring break. Students will begin remote learning on April 2nd. Students will return to campus April 13th (for now).
Buxton School --- closed through April 4th.
Darrow School -- extended spring break beginning March 14th. Students will resume classes April 6th.
Emma Willard -- extended spring break began March 10th. Students will return to campus April 6th.
Miss Hall's School -- no school Friday, March 13 and extended spring break begins. Students to
resume classes March 30.
Pine Cobble -- early spring break; closed 3/16 through April 4; classes resume April 6.
Saint Agnes Academy (Dalton) -- closed March 16 through March 27.

COLLEGES:

Berkshire Community College -- students are on break as of March 13; classes will be closed through March 27.
MCLA -- Spring Break begins March 13; classes cancelled for the week of March 23-27; students can return to campus Sunday, March. 30th.
Williams -- The last day of classes is March 13. Students will have three weeks of spring break and then resume their course remotely on Monday, April 6.

STATES THAT HAVE CLOSED SCHOOL:

Alabama (through 4/5)
Alaska (through 3/27)
Arizona (through 3/27)
Arkansas (through 3/29)
California
Colorado (through 4/17)
Connecticut (through 3/29)
Delaware (through 3/27)
Florida (through 4/15)
Georgia (through 3/31)
Hawaii (through 4/7)
Idaho
Illinois (through 3/27)
Indiana
Iowa (through 4/13)
Kansas (through the end of the school year--5/31)
Kentucky (recommended through 3/29)
Louisiana (through 4/12)
Maine (most schools closed through 3/27)
Maryland (through 4/5)
Massachusetts (through 4/7)
Michigan (through 4/5)
Minnesota (through 3/27)
Mississippi (recommended through 3/27)
Missouri (most schools are off but no state mandate)
Montana (through 3/27)
Nebraska
Nevada (most schools through 4/10)
New Hampshire (3/23 through 4/3, at least)
New Jersey (through 4/1)
New Mexico (through 4/5)
New York (closed through 4/1)
New York City (through 4/20)
North Carolina (through 3/27)
North Dakota (through 3/20)
Ohio (through 4/5)
Oklahoma (through 4/6)
Oregon (through 3/31)
Pennsylvania (through 3/27)
Rhode Island (through 3/20)
South Carolina (through 3/31)
South Dakota (through 3/27)
Tennessee (through 3/31)
Texas
Utah ("soft" closure through 3/27)
Vermont (through 4/6)
Virginia (through 3/27)
Washington, DC (through 3/31)
Washington (through 4/24)
West Virginia (until further notice)
Wisconsin (through 3/27)
Wyoming (recommended through 4/5)

Big Weather Changes

The forward progress of Spring will be halted in its tracks today as a powerful storm sweeps into the northeast this evening.

Unfortunately, most of us will see heavy rain from this event. But if you live in the hill towns or southern Vermont, you have a shot at a delay or cancellation. Confidence is very low, however, that this storm will shorten the school day for folks in our immediate region. If anything, the heavy wind that will pick up this evening has a better chance of knocking out power and giving a district in North County a delay or early release. We do have a Wind Advisory in place for tonight, with 40 mph gusts possible by morning.

Not likely to shorten the day on Thursday.

If it snows at all in Berkshire County, it will happen Thursday in the morning as the cold air gets sucked in from the north, turning the rain into snow. Hill towns could see a quick blast of a few inches of snow. Southern Vermont towns in higher elevation spots could see up to 6". Parts of northern New York, New Hampshire, and Maine could end up with a foot of snow.

As the storm moves off the Atlantic coast, we will see steadily declining temperatures. Winter will be back this weekend with highs in the 20s and lows in the low teens. The weekend should be dry except for a stray flake or two on Friday.

Before you give up all hope, we have seen a few signs for a storm in the second week of March. We'll continue to monitor that situation as we learn more about.

Expect Snow on Tuesday

Happy President's Day (or Washington's Birthday if you work for the federal government)!

We picked up another 1/2 inch of snow early Sunday morning, and the run of nuisance storms continues on Tuesday. We are expecting at least an inch for all of Berkshire County, with some more northerly locations potentially seeing 3". This storm will NOT impact the morning commute--the snow should start around 11 AM--but the evening ride home from work could be messy as forecasters are expecting a changeover to sleet then all rain throughout the afternoon and early evening.

Nuisance snow.

As for the rest of the week, it will be a quiet one. We will see a return to normal winter temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the low 20s. Unfortunately, it will not last and we'll be right back up into the 40s for the weekend.

We are still keeping an eye on a more sizable storm for the week of the 24th, but the current outlook is for a big rain event. Winter is definitely on its proverbial downslope. Yes, March is known to provide excitement, but all the long-range models are showing above average temperatures for that month.

Thursday Storm Recap

Today's storm pretty much delivered. Most schools had at least a delay--Lee, Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills were notable exceptions--and we had a few cancellations to the north. We should have been more aggressive with our Confidence Meter, but the warm temperatures were holding us back.

It was a little surprising to see BCC and MCLA opt for the delay, but maybe they fell prey to the Once-Bitten-Twice-Shy Theorem as today's driving conditions in Berkshire County were generally much better than Monday's.

NWS Snow Reports for today's storm. They are consistent with the delays and snow days we say today.

With vacation week coming up, most of our staff will be off next week--in fact, a few have bolted already for warmer climes--but the diehards will be around the office and will report on any winter weather developments for those who do not follow the public school vacation schedule.

So what's next? First, it will be frigid tomorrow and tomorrow night. The temperature is slowly dropping as we speak. We'll see highs in the teens Friday, and then the thermometer will bottom out early Saturday morning in the negative single digits. We fear we've forgotten what real winter cold feels like, so bundle up and cover those extremities, including the tip of the nose. Fortunately, temps will moderate Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

As for precipitation, we could see some more slushiness on Tuesday morning but it will be minor. The rest of the week will be mild and dry.

Recently, most forecasters have been preparing to read Old Man Winter his final rites, but suddenly a few signals have popped up via the models to suggest the possibility of a New England storm in late February. The Old Man, it appears, might not be dead yet. Those of us still scuffling around in the GSD Office sure ain't holding our collective breath, but certainly we'll keep an eye on that time period.

With the reduction in staff, we'll be operating on a need-to-know basis for the next 10 days. Check in with our Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram for any quick updates.

Snow Days and Delays for Thursday, Feb. 13

Light snow continues to fall at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. Roads are snow-covered but passable. We will see intermittent snow and possibly some sleet mixing in for the next several hours before a taper to drizzle later this morning.

We do have several cancellations and delays today. Here they are:

SNOW DAY

BART
Emma Miller
Hoosac Valley (Adams-Cheshire)
Mohawk Trail
Southwest Vermont SU

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

BCC (classes at 9:30 or later start on time)
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Montessori
Central Berkshire
Child Care of the Berkshires (open; Pittsfield and North County transportation is delayed 2 hours)
Clarksburg
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Hillcrest
Lenox
McCann
MLCA (opening at 10:30)
Mount Greylock (Williamstown-Lanesborough)
New Lebanon
North Adams
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield
Richmond Consolidated
Stamford

Maps for Thursday

Essentially, we're going to get what the models have shown for the past three days. The relative stability from model run to model run suggests the storm will likely do what forecasters are expecting. In that regard, it will behave a lot like Monday's storm so we should see 3-4 inches in most places and 5 inches in a few higher elevation spots. And that will mean many delays for students as well as a few full snow days called for students in North County.

Here are some maps:

We would prefer to see that 3-5" zone extend to the Connecticut border so we can see delays for everyone tomorrow. Unfortunately, it's another "wake up and see" event. We'll run our delay and cancellation list bright and early tomorrow morning.

No News Is Good News -- Snow to Affect AM Commute on Thursday

All systems are go for our latest snow/sleet event.

NWS Albany announced the Winter Weather Advisory for all of Berkshire County in the wee hours of the night. One to three inches with some icing is expected in South County while 3-5" is expected in North County. Higher elevation towns once again will likely be the big winners tomorrow.

The two-hour delay for most students is a safe bet. Snow might be transitioning to sleet and rain in South County around 7 AM, but there should be enough wintery slop on the road to delay the start of school. For schools north of Pittsfield, the snow should linger longer, giving those students a higher chance for a delay. Also, any Massachusetts school on the Vermont border has 50/50 chance for a snow day. Southern Vermont schools will have a better chance for a snow day than a delay.

Delays likely.

A big x-factor tomorrow will be how many phone calls your Superintendent received on Tuesday about the delay/snow day decision. If many parents were in your Superintendent's ear on Tuesday about how bad road conditions were when students eventually traveled to school, then you will have a greater chance for a full snow day due to the Once-Bitten-Twice-Shy Theorem of Snow Day Prognostication (Snowowski and Graupel 2012).

We'll post a few maps later this evening once the last few runs of the models come in. And we are really hoping for a last minute adjustment that bumps up totals--similar to Monday night's late evening fireworks--and if that were to happen, then snow days will be more the rule than the exception.

Snowy AM Commute on Thursday

We'll cut right to the chase--Thursday is shaping up for many students to have their third two-hour delay in the past 6 school days.

Both the Euro and North American models are more or less in agreement on this storm, with a range of 2.5 inches in South County to 5.5 inches in the north and northeast corner of Berkshire County. The big snow winners will be Florida, Clarksburg, Heath and Rowe, Mass and all the schools in Bennington County.

This map came out Tuesday morning so it probably will be updated later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will be dry--and we shockingly could see the sun--before clouds roll in and then snow arrives after midnight. Most locations will see a changeover to rain by noon by Thursday. One very interesting tidbit we picked up from NWS Albany is the potential for bands of heavy snow between 8 AM and 11 AM just to the north of I-90. If this very precise forecast comes through, we could see snow days for Pittsfield and Central Berkshire and all schools north of those districts. That forecast is far from a certainty, but we're going to keep on eye on it as it will affect the Confidence Meter.

The bottom line is that the timing for this storm is just about perfect.

We don't have a Winter Weather Advisory yet for the Berkshires, but that will likely come in the next twelve hours.