Storm Alert

Happy New Year, snow hounds!

With a new year, we have a new and exciting opportunity for snow, which we want to put it on your radar. We could see a moderate/heavy snow storm next weekend.

The potential for this storm will generate a lot of hype in the media because it's the first big one of the season and it could impact the Philly, NYC, and Boston metropolitan areas.

You need to resist the temptation to get too excited for this storm. We can't stress that enough. For one, we're seven days away from the predicted dumping of snow. And two, the snow will fall on the weekend, which is just so predictable for this really disappointing snow season. And why not play the reverse psychology game? If we all downplay it, then there's a chance we will pleasantly surprised next Sunday.

The reason that the snow hype machine will be cranked up to maximum NSPMs (news stories per minute) is--you know this if you are a frequent reader--the recent runs of the European and North American models. Yesterday they were more apart in their forecast, but today they are more in sync.

European model for next Sunday night.

North American model, slight later time frame.

Currently, the forecast is for 7-11 inches for the Berkshires. If the models can continue to stay in sync, then our chances for a moderate snow event next Sunday will continue to stay high. One trend to watch is a southerly shift in the snow (which is what the North American model was suggesting yesterday). If it does push south, we'll only see 2-4 inches in our areas.

Again, try not to fall prey to the hype. These models will change over the next five days. The storm could easily drift south. But let's keep an eye on it.

If This Rain Had Been Snow...

Today was a wild weather day with heavy rain and high winds that started Sunday night and are just starting to wrap up now (Monday night). We currently have river flood warnings for several areas, with waters expected to continue to rise overnight. While it's highly unlikely that we'll see widespread delays tomorrow due to river flooding, some isolated schools could get a shortened school day.

Whenever we get heavy rain in the winter months, people always fantasize about how much snow would have fallen if had it been cold enough. The rain-to-snow ratio is typically 1 inch to 10-12 inches. But that ratio doesn't really tell the whole truth. If it had been cold enough for snow, the air would be much drier, which would have lowered the amount of liquid with this storm. Still, 18 inches would not have been out of the question if cold air was in place.

The rest of this post is a very Grinchy outlook, so turn away if you're better off not knowing.

As for a white Christmas, that's not happening around here. Thursday and Friday will feel like winter with temps hovering around freezing both days--ski areas will be able to recoup some of their losses--but we are expected to shoot up into the 40s again starting on Christmas Eve. Vacation week looks like most days will be well over freezing. Bah humbug.

El Nino winters--we're in one in a big way--typically produce late season snow. So, it could easily be another 4 weeks until we see a shift in the pattern and colder air gains a stronger footing over the US.

Happy holidays, and we hope we have better news soon!

Monday Morning (Dec. 11) Report -- Delays and Closings

At the GSD Headquarters in Williamstown (elevation 700 feet), it is 33 degrees and we have half an inch of snow with a combination of rain/snow falling (as of 5:30 AM). Precipitation should come down for several more hours but the intensity may not be there for even delays.

Several schools to our west (Brunswick, Berlin, Hoosick Falls NY) and north have gone with delays today. 

We have a few delays to report (updated 5:54 AM):

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Hillcrest
Pittsfield