We're Back! Winter 2019-2020 Isn't Far Around the Corner

With a record four-foot snowstorm this past weekend (Sept. 27-28) out in Montana that knocked out power and cancelled school, it was high time for the GSD Staff to dust off the ol' weather maps and storm models and get back to work.

Before we plunge right into it, we want to say thank you for reading. Predicting snow days is a labor of love. We mostly(-ish) get it right, and we hope to have a little fun along the way. Once again, we look forward to bringing you the best-est, most accurate, and timeliest information that we can this season.

Let's get on with the weather, and let's deal with the most pressing concerns first. We have already seen a prediction for snow in northern New England (mostly Maine and New Hampshire) for October 10th from the GFS model. While it is unlikely the Berkshires will see flakes from that system, they won't be that far away. So it's only a matter of time that you'll be reading these posts for real.

As for the long-range forecast for 2019-20, here's what we have to say about that:

1) Global warming is not working in our favor. July of 2019 was the hottest month (globally) that humans have experienced, since we've been keeping records. That isn't great news. Warm summers do not always mean warm winters, but we're clearly trending in the wrong direction on the overall temperature front.

2) The three-month forecasts for November/December/January and for December/January/February are for above average temperatures and average or near-average precipitation totals. These three-month forecasts are not ones we at GSD spend a lot of time on, so take them with a grain of salt. If they do prove to be accurate, we'll experience a below average winter. An average Berkshire winter usually yields around 60 inches of snow, with higher amounts in the hilltowns and lower totals in the valleys.

3) Forecast models are predicting neither an El Nino nor a La Nina winter. We'll be in the neutral phase, which typically yields an average or slightly below average winter.

So, that's a typically very bland forecast for this time of year. But bland isn't bad. Forty to 50 inches of snow--a slightly below average winter--is sure to generate enough snow days and delays to get us through the bleak mid-winter hours.

We do see a trend toward cooler temps over the next two weeks, with many days in the low to mid 50s. Temps in the evening will be dipping toward the freezing mark during several nights, so we are getting closer and closer to the first frozen precipitation of the season. Even if it doesn't happen in the next few weeks, it won't be long thereafter.

Rain to Snow Today; Winter Storm Warning for Northern Berkshire

Temps have stayed well above freezing at the GSD Home Office (elevation 900'), so the rain continues here. Snow is falling to our north and west. Expect the shift from rain to snow to occur later today and into this evening. Here's what we have for shortened days:

EARLY RELEASE:

Hoosick Falls (NY)
Southwest Vermont SU

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller
Mohawk Trail

Winter Storm Warning for No. Berkshire County

[6 PM Update: Southwest Vermont Supervisory SU will be releasing students early tomorrow due to the Winter Storm Warning forecast for Bennington County. We'll start a list later tonight only if more districts call in. See our afternoon report below.]

Boy, that escalated quickly.

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning--not a Watch--for Berkshire County. Snow days and early releases are in play for Friday. The window for this storm is 2 AM Friday to noon on Saturday.

Colder air is expected to deepen as the storm moves up the coast and intensifies. The rain we are experiencing right now is the leading edge of the storm, and we will see a gradual changeover to wet snow anywhere between 3 AM and noon Friday, depending on the elevation of your location. Some schools do have a shot at a snow day tomorrow.

Because the temperature has been over freezing during the day for the last week or so, it will take much longer for the snow to accumulate on the roads. For this reason we think students should have little problem getting to their schools in Northern Berkshire tomorrow morning.

But if the snow begins to accumulate on the roads before the morning commute, or Superintendents are worried about accumulating snow during the day, then we might see a snow day or two from this list of schools: Hancock, Florida, Savoy, Central Berkshire, Adams-Cheshire, and perhaps even North Adams and Mount Greylock.

In all of Berkshire County we should see accumulating snow at some point on Friday For that reason, we can not rule out a few early releases for tomorrow.

This storm will impact high elevation towns the most. NWS Albany is expecting 5 to 10 inches of snow for Northern Berkshire with some higher elevations getting over a foot. Southern Berkshire County could see 4-6 inches. The bulk of this snow should fall Friday afternoon and into the evening, if we were to generalize for the entire County.

Be aware that the past history with these late season storms indicates that it will be a bust. But--there's always a but--should it do what meteorologists think it is going to do, some group of students will have some time off from school tomorrow.

The GSD Office will be kicking it into high gear tomorrow morning with updates on the storm, cancellations and/or delays.

If you can make sense of this snow onset map, then you're a better person than we are. Good luck with it.