Friday Storm Update: Wednesday Edition #2

More information is coming in about the storm on Friday and--we'll be blunt--it's not very helpful. The models are beginning to agree with each other more and more, but that agreement still doesn't give us a clear picture of what's going to happen.

What do we know:

*The storm is going to start as rain and then turn to snow
*It should start sometime on Thursday night
*It will end on Saturday morning
*We should get at least an inch of liquid precipitation

What we don't know:

*The timing of the rain-to-snow conversion

Based on the models and what all the experts are saying, we will see snow cover the roads in the Berkshires at some point on Friday. That coverage could happen as early as midday; it could happen as late as the evening rush hour. There lies the rub, and it's what is going to make the decision for Superintendents very difficult on Friday. Fortunately for them, they can safely rule out delays on Friday because of the late development of the snow.

Not bad. Getting better.

The least attractive scenario is that Superintendents hold off on any snow day or early dismissal announcements and we get by unscathed until the snow comes down in the afternoon. The best case scenario is we get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at some point on Thursday, the changeover to snow occurs Friday morning, and all the good boys and girls of the Berkshires enjoy a snow day.

No school for many New York friends on Friday.

Right now we think most students will have a full day, but some districts--namely Northern Berkshire school systems and Central Berkshire--will go with an early release. This is not a high confidence prediction right now, but it's something the GSD Staff hopes to build on.

We could live with this.

The last thing we should say is that the projected snow totals are edging upward ever so slightly with each run of the models. We endorse this trend and hope it continues.

Friday Storm Update: Wednesday Edition #1

Things are trending in a better direction for us for snow on Friday. The newest forecast map (below) has us getting solid 3-4 inches of snow for Berkshire County. Unfortunately, it looks like the bulk of this snow will fall after 12 PM on that day.

Winter Storm Watches are up for almost all of New York except for the eastern border counties. But it's likely these Watches will expand all the way to the east in New York, Western Mass, Northwest Connecticut and Vermont. Those Winter Weather Advisories and Watches could come in as early as this afternoon.

There's still great uncertainty about the storm. It's almost guaranteed to start as rain, and we simply don't know when and if the changeover to snow will occur. Not surprisingly, the snow conversion will happen first in higher elevation towns and then seep into valley locations gradually.

One interesting development to watch for: If the precipitation comes down heavily, this will increase our chances for heavy snow. The heavier the precipitation falls, the more cold air gets sucked down toward the surface. Really hard rain initially will lead to a faster changeover to snow.

Because of the window for snow looks to be a tad later than we'd like it to be, we'll hold off on a lot of movement on the ol' True North Confidence Meter. But adjustments to it will be coming as more information about the track of the storm becomes clearer.

Friday Storm Update: Tuesday Edition

The GSD Staff is still very hesitant about getting too excited about the Friday storm. The warm temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are spooking us and leading us to believe we won't see much snow at all on Friday.

But, we are saying there is a chance. Here are two very interesting maps from the National Weather Service, Albany bureau: 

The first map shows what snow totals we're likely to get; the second map shows what we could get if this storm really ramps up and sucks colder air into our region. The two maps show quite a spread of possibilities, which is unusual for the NWS. 

What these maps really mean is at this stage in the proceedings it's anyone's guess. We will probably get 1-3 inches, but we might also get hammered with 6-9 inches. If the model predictions operate the way they normally do, we'll probably see the current 1-2 inch forecast bump up on in the next 48 hours to a 2-4 inch or 3-5 inch prediction. At that point, we'll see Winter Weather Advisories for Friday.

Let's just say we have our full attention on this potential storm. It might ultimately be a rainstorm, but the chance for a significant snowstorm is still hanging out there. We will bump up our chances for an early release on Friday because of these maps, but, realistically, most students will have full days of school on Friday.

At least that's we're saying today. More to come tomorrow.