Winter Storm Watches are up for almost all of New York except for the eastern border counties. But it's likely these Watches will expand all the way to the east in New York, Western Mass, Northwest Connecticut and Vermont. Those Winter Weather Advisories and Watches could come in as early as this afternoon.
There's still great uncertainty about the storm. It's almost guaranteed to start as rain, and we simply don't know when and if the changeover to snow will occur. Not surprisingly, the snow conversion will happen first in higher elevation towns and then seep into valley locations gradually.
One interesting development to watch for: If the precipitation comes down heavily, this will increase our chances for heavy snow. The heavier the precipitation falls, the more cold air gets sucked down toward the surface. Really hard rain initially will lead to a faster changeover to snow.
Because of the window for snow looks to be a tad later than we'd like it to be, we'll hold off on a lot of movement on the ol' True North Confidence Meter. But adjustments to it will be coming as more information about the track of the storm becomes clearer.
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