Weekend Storm Threat Evaporates But Another One Is In Sight

So, it looks like the North American wins this week's battle of the models. The big storm we were eyeing will now be a dusting or at most an inch in Southern Berkshire County.

The big issue, though, is the cold. It's possible we could stay in the single digits and teens all way through next weekend. If we were to have school on Monday, we would probably see some freeze delays as temps on Monday morning are supposed to bottom out between -8 and -15 for Berkshire County.

As for the snowcast, we might see a flurry Friday night and the aforementioned Saturday dusting. Then, on Wednesday we could see a period of light snow in the evening followed by something much bigger for the end of the week. Again, the meteorological scuttlebutt is centering on a significant coastal storm.

We won't hold our breath on that one, but the one thing for sure is there is plenty of cold air in place for any precipitation to come down as snow and only snow. And because it is so darn cold, the snow-to-liquid ratios will be very high. In other words, we won't need a lot of precipitation to produce many inches of snow.

Stay warm!

Weekend Storm Uncertainty

There has been a lot of speculation about this weekend's potential snowstorm, but there is very little certainty.

The reason for such meteorological equivocation is a classic showdown between the two major weather models, the European and the North American. The European wants to phase the two storm systems into one more potent one; the North American keeps the storm much farther to our south.

Traditionally we have sided with the European, as have some of our key consultants.

The NWS is going very conservative with the forecast for the weekend storm...so far.

Because there is so much uncertainty, we do not think that this storm is going to pan out and dump a lot of snow on us. We could see 2-4 inches starting late Friday night, but this is a very early and crude attempt to give this storm some kind of identity. As you can see, the NWS is even skeptical about snow for the weekend for our area.

Be aware that we have a Wind Chill Warning in effect for Berkshire County tonight until midday tomorrow. Wind Chill values of -25 degrees are possible in the next 24 hours. If you can swing, just stay indoors.

More about the big Battle of the Models tomorrow.

Cold Snap and Weekend Storm

It's a good time to be a GSD Staffer, as we have lots to talk about.

First up is the bitterly cold air mass that has descended upon us. Goodbye, Temps in the Twenties! We'll see you in about 10 days. 

The next 10 days will be very cold--we'll below normal--and the very worst of those times, when you will not want to be outside for very long, will be this Thursday and next Tuesday. Highs in the single digits on those days, with the lows nearing -10. Yes, this means we will be discussing possible freeze delays for students on Tuesday, but that's a long way off and the weekend storm--if it develops--could scramble things up and change that forecast.

The reason we're entertaining the idea of a big storm this weekend is that key ingredients are in play for the formation of a nor'easter. There are two storms out there, and they could possibly join forces to make a mega-storm on the coast. One storm is fairly weak and will make its way due east out of the plains. The other storm is down there in the Gulf of Mexico and will track northeastward, causing all kinds of problems in the South (ice, mainly) due to the cold air gripping eastern half of the US.

The computer models are all over the place right now, but some of them are predicting the phasing (combining) of these two storms (a.k.a. low pressure systems, pieces of energy) along the mid-Atlantic coast. If that happens, we could see a major New England snowstorm this weekend with some areas getting a foot of snow.

So what do we think? Our collective GSD gut tells us that this strong cold air in place (a.k.a. a high pressure system) will make things much harder for the joining forces of the two storms. Instead, we will see periods of light snow over the weekend but not much consistently moderate to heavy snow. That's just what our gut tells us. Things can change. It's weather. That's what it does.

Enjoy vacation week. Bundle up, especially on Thursday. Try to limit exposed skin to the air during this cold snap.