Now It's a Monday Storm

The more we're looking at this snowstorm potential, the more the GSD Staff is now considering Monday as the target day for a snow day.

There is still A LOT that can go wrong with this storm--in fact, we should probably expect everything to go wrong with this storm--but it's looking like the snow could start as early as Monday morning. That would mean Monday is very much in play for a potential snow day.

For that to happen, we would need the following to happen:

1. Predicted snowfall of at least 4-6 inches.
2. A storm window that lasts at least until late afternoon.
3. A predicted start time of 7 or 8 AM.

If these conditions are met, then the chance for a snow day could be higher than a regular evening snowfall where we wait for the morning to see if the roads are fine. If superintendents know a moderate snowfall is coming, they might be reluctant to put buses on the road during an afternoon commute that has the potential to be very messy. Plus, because there are plenty of snow days still on the shelves, superintendents might be willing break one out and throw everyone a bone.

Those really desperate for a snow day, you need to start rooting for this storm to begin in the morning on Monday.

We'll know more tomorrow night.

April Snow Storms (No Foolin')

We've consulted the weather oracles, and the high priests and priestesses are still cautiously optimistic about a moderate to heavy snow storm for Tuesday. Very little has changed since yesterday.

There does seem to be a good deal of uncertainty about Sunday's snow. Most signs show just a chance for intermittent snow showers, but some of the recent runs of the model are indicating a more prolonged period of snow Sunday morning. No matter what happens on Sunday in the Berkshires, the totals will not be very high, perhaps 1-3 inches.

As for Tuesday's storm, take a look at this map:

Courtesy of NOA.

This map shows how much liquid precipitation we're supposed to get through Tuesday. If this map proves to be accurate, we're in the 0.6" range. If we convert that liquid to snow, we're looking at 6 inches, plus or minus an inch. A 5-7 inch snowstorm--if it were timed right--would most assuredly cancel school for the day.

One thing that's certain about the storm for Tuesday: it will be cold enough for all snow. No changeover is expected, which is also something we haven't been able to say about many storms this year.

We'll have more about this intriguing situation tomorrow.

April Snow Showers Bring...Glee? Rage? Indifference?

Having just written the obituary for Winter 2015-16, the GSD Office is suddenly back in action and in full storm forecasting mode. No, we are not testing out our new Thunderstorm Prediction Machine. We're looking at bona fide snow events. That's right. Plural.

After months of warm temperatures, it looks like the first week of April will look more like the first week of February. Temperatures will plummet after Thursday (highs in the upper 60s!) and become decidedly frigid and wintery by Sunday. Friday and Saturday will be very manageable (50s), but the cold front zips in on Saturday night, along with it the possibility for a few inches of snow late Saturday and early Sunday. Higher terrains in the Berkshires could see up to 4 inches. By Monday morning, temps will be in the mid-teens.

But the bigger news--because it could involve school closures--is a larger storm expected for Monday night into Tuesday. From our various weather sources, we have encountered the words "moderate to heavy snow event" in association with this storm. Great googly moogly!

We know, we know. We've been down this road before this year. We completely understand your skepticism. The only thing different about this storm--and it's not insignificant--is that the Euro and North American models are all already in agreement about the size of this storm. We'll just have to wait and see, but there might be something special about this storm.

We're on it and will be updating daily.