Extreme Cold Then (Extreme?) Snow

"Maybe have your yard sticks located and ready?"

This was the question that caught our attention in Thursday morning's NWS Albany's Area Forecast Discussion of the coastal snow storm heading our way Sunday and Monday.

We certainly could be in for the long-awaited big one.

Before we get to the latest on the Sunday/Monday potential nor'easter, we do have a few days of dangerously cold temps to deal with. The Berkshires are already under an Extreme Cold Watch for Friday evening through Saturday. Wind chills may get all the way down to -30. That's no joke.

Meteorologists and forecast models continue to discuss a moderate to major snow event Sunday and Monday. The Euro and North American models are showing 5-8" for this storm, but we are seeing higher amounts forecasted from other sources. The snow should start by midday on Sunday and last until Monday afternoon or evening. If that's the case, we will see a snow day clean sweep for Berkshire County and all of Massachusetts.

Here are some maps to peruse until we can bring you more information:

Euro model

North American

Weather Channel/Intellicast. (Yes, that shows 12+ inches for CT and almost all of MA.)

Monday (Jan. 26) Snow Day?

The first big weather story is the bitter cold that will sweep into the Berkshires Friday night and last through the weekend. Dangerously cold temps are expected with single digit high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. It will be a good weekend for indoor sports and activities.

We may have a developing situation for Monday. Certain indicators are showing an increasing chance for measurable snow Sunday night into Monday. There will be sizable storm to our south that will be moving up the coast. The last few runs of the models are taking the storm on a more northerly track. The more northerly the better if we want a snow day on Monday.

Euro Model for Sunday night.

North American Model for Sunday night.

It may sound complicated, but the storm will move more northerly if two energy systems phase (i.e. join together.) One is in the upper plains. The other is in the Southwest. If they come together, then we are in business as this will pull the coastal storm closer to New England.

So, if we want lots of snow Sunday night (see the Euro model above), we need those to energy systems out west to phase. If they don't, the coastal storm will slide out to sea (see the North American model above).

Despite the difference of opinion being put forth by the models, we have a sneaky feeling that this storm might get its act together and give us a shot at a snow day for Monday. We're very excited to see what will happen as we get closer to the weekend.

Cold Week Ahead (Jan. 19-25)

The two-phases of the snow Friday night and Saturday produced our biggest snowfall of the winter season. We got 5.1" at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, and we saw several 6+" totals in Pittsfield and Lenox. All in all a nice surprise that should give us a good snow base for the next few weeks.

As for the week ahead, it's looking very cold with not that much snow. Tuesday will be very cold with high temps in the mid-teens. We'll see a brief warm up to more seasonable temperatures Wednesday through Friday (20s with a warmup on Thursday into the 30s). 

Euro model temperature forecast for Saturday morning. Yikes!

But then gird yourself for the weekend.  Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the single digits. Most people on Saturday morning will wake up to the coldest readings of the season: -5 and colder for our area.

As for snow, we could see a dusting here and there mid-week. Unfortunately, the forecast is for the cold air to move in under calm conditions. There might be something big brewing the first week of February, but only one model is giving us that scenario.

But as Saturday's snow revealed, things can change rapidly in this neck of the woods.