Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday; More Storms on the Way

Ten days from now, the Berkshires will likely have a very different look. The GSD Staff is eyeing not one, not two, but three chances for measurable snow in the next 10 days.

First up is the appetizer. The clipper we wrote about earlier in the week is on its way. Yay for snow but boo for timing. Snow will descend upon us in the afternoon and evening tomorrow (Sunday). Even though we have a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires tomorrow (for 3-5" of snow),  road crews will have ample time to get the roads clear for the bus runs on Monday morning. The expectation is that snow will start in the early afternoon and wrap up shortly after midnight. We can't rule out a delay or two for some towns, but most students will have a full day of school on Monday.

Not bad for a clipper system.

Then things get interesting. Some models are showing a nor'easter for Friday/Friday night. It's much too early to lock this one in, of course, but the potential certainly exists for a moderate to heavy snowfall. Even though the storm center will emerge from the southeast, there's a piece of energy coming in from the Northwest that will determine if we get snow on Friday. If that northwestern energy is too strong, it would push the storm south of us. If it dissipates, we'll get the first big one of the season. Say a little prayer for the Euro model (see below) as that is the one that is showing a more significant storm.

Euro model for next Friday/Friday night. This will change so don't get TOO excited.

And finally in the week before Christmas we're looking at another moderate storm potential. Simply put, we are in a great pattern. Should that storm come to fruition, we're looking at a Tuesday/Wednesday event (Dec. 20-21).

With only 10 days of school until the next vacation, we think chances are high that we will have at least one snow day. Right now we would put the chances of at least one snow day at 60% and the chances for two snow days at 20%. 

We're excited about the 2-3" we'll get tomorrow, but it's the Friday storm that has most of our attention. We look forward to providing frequent updates about it in the upcoming week.

Snow For The Monday Commute?

Maybe, just maybe, things are starting to pick up for all of us snow lovers in the Berkshires. With our collective GSD ears to the ground, we are picking up rumblings about a potential messy commute on Monday.

Despite a VERY balmy day today (Wednesday), temps will begin to drop as we move toward the weekend. The Thursday through Saturday period should be relatively dry. But on Sunday a storm system will move in from the Great Lakes. This clipper system should be able to pick up some additional Atlantic moisture and generate a swath of precipitation for our region.

If there is enough cold air in place, we could see a few inches of snow right on into the morning commute on Monday. The North American model is showing 3-4 inches for the Berkshires, while the Euro only shows an inch or so. These models will change, of course, but there is reason for some optimism here. The best outcome will be delays for most schools.

Probably too aggressive a forecast for Monday, but one can only hope. (

As for a major whopper of a storm, we're not seeing anything taking shape for later next week. There will be plenty of moisture in the air, but it simply will be too warm for a prolonged period of snow.

A Whole Lotta Nothin'

Alas, the doldrums of December.

Despite the gradual build-up of holiday festiveness in the air, we are not seeing much on the short radar that would suggest any meteorological festiveness.

This week (Dec. 5-11) will be warm and wet early and then cooler by the weekend. After a dry Monday, we'll see a soaking rain during the day on Tuesday and well into Wednesday. Temps will be in the mid-50s so there's zero chance of any changeover even on the backside of the storm. By Thursday things will dry out as colder air comes into the Berkshires.

There's some debate about what's going to happen on Friday and the weekend. One model is showing a cooler, drier weekend. Other models point to rain and snow showers (Friday evening especially). We'll know more in a few days, but we're not expecting to get too excited over anything on the snow front.

There is some cause for optimism, though. We are starting to seem some encouraging forecasts for the Northeast for the middle of next week (Dec. 14-15, see below). The polar vortex is starting to shed some of its cold air, which could impact our area and set up a much more active snow pattern. And it's possible we could see that pattern continue right into the Christmas holiday. 

European model for snowfall by next Thursday. Models notoriously exaggerate snow totals this far out, but we'd take 50% accuracy, right?

There is a chance the second half of the month could make up for the poor start to December. Many more updates about the changing pattern will be coming later this week.