Early Signs of Spring Then Winter's Triumphant Return

Enjoy the inch or so of squall-induced snow we got on Saturday for a few hours longer because temps are headed to the 50s for the early part of the week and we will be snowless yet again.

But after some rain to deal with Tuesday night into Wednesday, the temperature will drop sharply, and there is an improving chance for an actual snow storm Thursday into Friday. If you trust the models--which you know you really shouldn't do at this point in the proceedings--then you need to get the snow boots, shovels and sleds ready because Berkshire County is expected to get 8-12" of fresh snow. 

Yes, it's vacation week for most students (less fun for the prognosticators at GSD), but that should not put a damper on your excitement about a genuine snow storm.

Unfortunately the news is not all rainbows and puppy dogs about the storm. Despite really excellent model agreement right now, there is a chance for a period of sleet and freezing rain to bring snow totals down and give us more of a winter soup than a clean snow storm. It will not be as bad as the icy mess we had on February 4, but given the orientation of this storm, ice could very well factor in.

The Euro model. Snow totals are by the end of the day on Friday.

The American model for the same time period.

Enjoy the warm weather and stay dry on Wednesday. We'll have daily updates about the end of week storm, including a better sense of the timing and snow/ice amounts.

Big Warm-Up But Winter Will Return

It's been a quiet several days, but weather will be back in the headlines for Thursday.

We will see a very powerful storm move through the area on Friday. Unfortunately, a lot of its power comes with warm air and high winds. We are expecting to get well into the 50s on Thursday with heavy rain expected throughout the day and into Friday morning. Any snow left on the ground will be gone by the time this system moves out.

With the heavy rain comes wind. Gusts are expected up to 40 mph for parts of the Berkshires. The high winds should be at their peak shortly after midnight.

After the storm moves out, we begin a mild period of 40s and 50s for about a week. There will be some wet weather next week as well (although not nearly as bad as it will be on Thursday). 

As we make our way closer to March, we are seeing long-range projects for the return to more seasonably cold air as well as the ingredients for a storm or two. We know some folks are ready to move on to spring, but multiple opportunities for big snow storms will be possible for the first two weeks of March. Mark our words.

An example of the kind of long-range map that shows a snow storm possibility. The blue is cold air and the yellow is warm air. This map, for early March, features a trough that could lead to a snow storm for New England.

Enjoy the warm-up and find the mud boots, but don't put that shovel away just yet. 

Winter Weather Advisory For Monday Night/Early Tuesday (Feb. 7/8)

A quick update on the afternoon and evening snow that we are already starting to see fall. Temps stayed slightly colder than expected at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. Wet snow has been falling off and on since noon.

It's going to be very hard to squeeze a delay out of this projection.

We should pick up an inch or less tonight--more snow on the eastern edge of Berkshire County--and, unfortunately, it looks like the snow will NOT be falling during the morning commute on Tuesday. We predict that most town's road crews will have ample time to treat and/or clear roads in time for the early bus runs. 

There's still a chance the snow lingers longer than expected or a superintendent or two plays it very safe, which could lead to a few delays. But it is our strong sense that a vast majority of students will have a full day of class tomorrow.

If we hear of any delays, we'll post them tomorrow morning as soon as we can.