Weekend Storm Update--Friday Late Morning Edition

It's been a good 18 hours for snow lovers in the Berkshires. Things are looking up.

According to the models, the storm track is going to take a nice little jiggity-jog toward the west, and we are now more likely to see moderate and even heavy snow fall throughout Saturday. The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch for area, and there's even some talk in the shadowy recesses of a weather chat room of a future upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.

To understand why you might be seeing a great deal of spread (2" to 14") in the predictions for Berkshire County,  you need to consider two very important factors that will dictate our snow totals. 

1) Many of the models use a snow to liquid ratio of 10 inches for every 1 inch of liquid (10:1). But because the air is going to so cold--mid-teens for highs on Saturday--snow to liquid ratios could approach 20:1 ratios. Many maps we're looking at are showing 4-8 inches for Berkshire County (north to south), but they are using a 10:1 ratio. So, don't be surprised if we hit double digits everywhere in the county as long as the storm follows its predicted track.

2) There is going to be steep and drastic cut off line with this storm. It's conceivable Berkshire County could see 3-5" and neighboring Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties could see 12-18". The reasons for this are the aforementioned cold air and the formation of intense snow bands. Somewhere in central or western mass, the western edge of the storm will bump up against the bitterly cold air, and there the twain shall meet. Right at that meeting point--that's where the snow is going to pile up. Let's hope that intersection is directly over US route 7.

Here's a very good image of snow band setting up vertically over central MA. We would want to see this set-up shift 100 mile to the west if we want 12-15" of snow.

As for timing, tonight will be completely dry. Snow should start as early as daybreak in South County and gradually edge north. The snow should end around midnight Saturday. The duration is fairly short.

This is model (the NAM) that meteorologists prefer right before a storm is about to happen. GSD fully endorses the NAM and really hope it's spot on. 

Weekend Storm Update -- Thursday Afternoon Edition

We're a day closer to the storm, but there's still a fair amount of uncertainty. The Berkshires will definitely not see the brunt of this storm, but you won't have to go too far east to see the snow pile up in a big way.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for much of southern and southeastern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, and coastal Massachusetts counties. Those will become Warnings later tonight and could even get bumped to Blizzard Warnings in some areas by Saturday.

One thing to note, which does explain why snow totals could be low for our area--the cold air mass that will move over us Friday night. With a high temperature expected to be in the mid-teens on Saturday, the warmer air from the storm is going to have a hard time pushing out the cold air and dropping snow onto us. It's unusual to see a big blockbuster snow with temperatures forecasted to be that low. 

The cold temps, as well as the eastern track of the storm, is why meteorologists are not predicting heavy snowfall for the Berkshires. Most of the maps are still showing a range of 1-3" up to 3-6", with higher totals expected for the southeast corner of the county.

Here are some regional maps for your viewing pleasure:

NWS Albany from earlier this morning. We expect an update from them soon.

NWS Boston. 

Accuweather

Channel 22 in Springfield. Maybe not the most flashy map but probably the most accurate for the Berkshires.

Weekend Storm Update -- Wednesday PM Edition

Today was a very cold day, but fortunately there was little wind, which made it tolerable. Temps simply won't go as low as expected tomorrow morning, so we will be very surprised if any districts spring for the 2-hour delay.

The weekend storm is causing a considerable amount of angst. (More accurately--it's the models and their predictions that are causing the agita.)

Because the major models are not in agreement, meteorologists are flummoxed, especially as they consider Western Mass. Southeastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts, including the Cape and the islands, have a high chance for 12+ inches of snow. That part of the prediction seems reliable. But because the storm is still over 48 hours away, we're not quite ready to say "lock it in" for eastern New England but we're close.

For the Berkshires, we are seeing quite the range of forecasts. Many meteorologists are putting us in the 2-4" zone or the 3-6" zone, so we appear to be right on the edge of a "big one." The GSD Staff isn't going to complain if we can get on the high side of those forecasts (6"), but given the intensity of this storm, it will be a little sad to miss out on the snow party that will be happening out east.

But there's still a lot of time left, and there are still many moving parts in the west and central parts of the country that will impact the track, intensity, and duration of the storm. So, as antsy as everyone is to want to know just what the heck is going to happen this weekend, we really need to be patient and wait until tomorrow evening (Thursday) and Friday morning before we should start to cancel plans for Saturday due to the snow.

Our gut instinct--in opposition to NWS Albany's initial snow map for this storm--says this nor'easter is sliding out to sea and we'll ultimately see a mere 2-4 inches. Of course we're going to root loudly for this storm to track to the west, but given the track record this winter, we are less than optimistic. Sorry, folks, but we're just observing the trends.

We'd be more than happy with this outcome. Kudos to NWS Albany for breaking the ice with this snow forecast. It will certainly change, but it's a start.