Cold Then Snow

We might get over 30 degrees today, but then temps are in a for a steep decline. Wednesday's high temp will be in the mid-teens and then we go down from there. Everyone wants to know if there will be freeze delays on Thursday. The short answer is...unlikely. 

A few days ago we were expecting temps in the -10 to -15 range for Thursday morning, but the forecast is warmer now. We will "only" drop into the negative single digits. But if there is little cloud coverage and radiational cooling occurs, we could go lower then the expected -4 to -7 degrees. The absence of wind and thus really low wind chill values means that delays, if any, will be more the exception than the rule.

Then, of course, the other big weather story is an impending coastal "bomb" of a low pressure system for the weekend. There is a lot of excitement about this storm, especially from the Weather Twitterati, but it is far from a sure thing. 

The Euro has been the most consistent run to run and is also presenting the most encouraging snow forecast. The American model spares the Berkshires a major hit but gives eastern New England a good thump of snow and even possible blizzard watches and warnings. The timing would be late Friday night and all day Saturday.

Snow accumulations by midnight on Saturday, according to the Euro. You can understand why some folks are losing their minds on this one.

This is not a forecast, but a meteorologist we like named Bernie Rayno is expecting at least 6 inches for all New England, with some places in central and southeast NE getting 2 feet of snow. He, too, cautions about reading too much into the surface maps of one model, but a plowable snow event is something we might have to contend with on Saturday. We're really hoping it's the storm that ensures snow-covered ground until late February.

Much, much more to follow.

This Week's Winter Weather (Jan. 24-30)

Just a heads up for the Flake Faithful out there that we could see a dusting of snow in Berkshire County this evening (Sunday), and maybe even a whole half an inch in South County. There's some moisture moving in from the west, with much of it evaporating before it reaching the ground, but some could break through and coat the roads.

We have a similar chance for a light snow tomorrow night as well. Unfortunately, neither of these light events will impact the start time for school Monday and Tuesday.

But what could impact the start time of school on Thursday is a deep freeze. We're seeing forecasts for temps in the -10 to -15 range for Thursday morning. That certainly classifies as "extreme cold" and could lead to some delays.

Finally, the big storm for the weekend is, as predicted, beginning to slide out to sea. It could have been a monster storm for eastern New England (24-30 inches), but the models continue to shift its track south and west of Cape Cod.

After this week we're seeing signs of shift to slightly warmer daily highs (mid-30s). That's not the direction we want to see winter heading in at this point in the proceedings.

It's pretty sad that in late January our hope for just a measly delay rides on really cold temps. But that's winter 2021-22 for you.

Not good!

Cold and Multiple Storm Opportunities

We don't have a ton of time tonight for a deep dive on all the upcoming chances for delays, snow days and storms, so here is the Cliff's Notes version:

*A 10% chance for freeze delays tomorrow (Friday) due to Wind Chill Advisory that is posted until 10 AM.

*The weekend storm is a likely a bust. As usual, it looked good three days ago but then it slid out to sea. The models are showing some recent northwestern movement, but it's still too far out to sea to impact our area other than with a few clouds.

 *A Clipper system will impact our area on Tuesday. It will be a light snow event, and the timing looks terrible for snow days and/or delays. But we may see 1-3 inches.

*The "next big one" is heading our way on January 31st. And if you believe that, we have a bridge in Brooklyn we'd like to sell you. (But, as is our responsibility, we'll monitor it for you so you don't have to.)

Winter face mask weather.