Snow Tonight; Some Delays for Monday

The Winter Storm Watch issued yesterday has now become a mere Winter Weather Advisory. We will see snow tonight--and it will last into the Monday morning commute--but it is not going to be the premier snow event we thought it might be last week.

If schools issued delays for the 4-5 inches of fluffy snow we got on Thursday, then the 3-6 inches of snow predicted for tonight should yield many delays tomorrow morning. South County schools will have the better chance for delays, as the farther south and east you go with this storm, the more snow you will see. In fact, Litchfield County in northwest Connecticut has a full Winter Storm Warning for tonight and tomorrow.

NWS Albany

Schools south of Pittsfield will have a better than 50% chance for a delay; schools north of Pittsfield may get shut out but the potential for a delay still exists. There's a chance a district like Southern Berkshire or Farmington River could go for the full snow day if they get 6-7 inches, which is certainly possible.

A big difference between this storm and Thursday's Alberta Clipper will be the density of the snow. As temperatures are relatively high right now, the snow will be heavy and wet. Especially in North County, the snow may even take a while to stick on the roads because the last few days have been over freezing for much of the day.

So, we do expect some delays tomorrow, but they probably won't be county-wide. We strongly suggest students prepare tonight for regular full-length classes or slightly shortened periods. We'll update later if we hear anything about changes to the track of the storm.

Red Flags for Sunday Night's Storm

Before anyone starts to make plans for how they are going to spend their day off on Monday, we feel obliged to present a few sobering realities:

1. The primary source of energy for this storm is currently in California. That's a lot of distance to cover in a short amount of time, which means a variety of things can go wrong with it.

2.  Check out these two forecasts:

For most storms this past winter, the high end prediction and the low end prediction have been much, much closer together--just 3-4 inches difference typically. To see an 18-inch difference raises an enormous red flag. This set-up has "bust" written all over it.

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So even though the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires for Sunday night into Monday, the GSD staff is suddenly not feeling so great about a sure-thing snow day (based on the reports we read this morning). It all could work out for us in the end, but we urge you to proceed with caution.

Light Snow Saturday; Moderate/Heavy Snow Sunday Night

The weather forecast may be confusing tonight as not one but two storms will hit New England in about a 36-hour period. The first storm will have a low impact on the Berkshires; the second storm appears to be poised to deliver the goods.

The Berkshires may see 2-3 inches during the day tomorrow from a coastal storm that is going to intensify and spread snow in an unusual manner--east to west. Some models see strong intensification but most of the snow will fall over Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. South County could see up to 4 inches if the storm takes a more northerly track.

As for the more important Sunday evening storm, the European model is the one that is calling for heavy snow for the Berkshires. The North American one is less optimistic and has the storm tracking farther to the south. But the Euro is usually fairly reliable with coastal storms, so we'll put our eggs in that basket this tie. We're still not fully convinced the map below is accurate, and we expect it to change over the next 24 hours. As we indicated yesterday, the track of this storm is still a moving target, so our 8-12 inches could become 3-5 in a hurry.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

We'll probably wait until the evening model runs tomorrow night to give you a more serious prediction for Monday, but if we were wagering on this storm, we would be putting just a few dollars on a snow day for Monday for almost all schools in Berkshire County.