Friday Storm Update: Monday Edition

We're officially pumping the brakes on the big storm for Friday. Two reasons: it probably won't be cold enough for all snow, and the storm seems to be headed farther south, which will keep precipitation totals down for our area.

There's still a chance for a major storm. The snow we got two weekends ago seemingly came out of nowhere, and the typical model pattern is, first, predictions for a big event a week before the storm, then confusion for a few days, and, finally a return to the original prediction 36-hours before the storm is expected to hit.

You can see from this forecast map that the brunt of the precipitation will fall just off the Cape. In this scenario, we might get 3-4 inches of snow.

The other interesting aspect of this storm that makes it unlike any other we've seen this season is how long it will last. It could start as early as Thursday night and carry over all the way into Saturday. The slow-moving nature will allow for the precipitation to add up; whether it is rain or snow is the looming question.

As of tonight we're not feeling the love for this storm the way we'd like to be at this point in the proceedings. Those 50-degree days on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday may just simply be too much to overcome.

We're definitely not dismissing this storm yet, but we may have to get deeper into March to see another big snowmaker. We are very much of the opinion that Old Man Winter has at least one more big one in him this season.

Late Week Storm

With a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 1 PM today, you can expect sloppy, slippery conditions this morning as the sleet eventually changes over to all rain in the afternoon. Don't even think about it: tomorrow's commute to school will be fine.

We will have mild and calm weather to start the week, but some ingredients are in play for a big storm Thursday night into Friday. We will have cold air to our north and two pieces of energy coming at us from the south and west. The models are all showing moderate to heavy precipitation amounts. The big ifs for this storm will be the snow/mixed precip/rain quandary that we often see in these late winter disturbances. We will have much more to say about this developing situation as the week progresses.

This map shows how much liquid is predicted for the Friday storm. If we use a lower snow-to-liquid ratio (because we'll be right around freezing with this storm) to translate this image into snow, we would see 5 to 10 inches from this storm.

Enjoy the last day of vacation. We'll have daily updates about the end of the week storm starting tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory: Thursday, Feb. 22

It's back to winter reality for Berkshirites today. We have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the entire day. We're expecting 2-4 inches of snow with sleet mixing in, especially earlier in the day. The frozen precipitation should end by 6 or 7 this evening. For those with 9 to 5 jobs, the commute home should be slow today.