January 16/17 Storm: Early Evening Report

After a day of light snow--3 inches on the ground at the GSD Home Office (as of 7 PM)--we're girding ourselves for another 6 inches of snow overnight. The morning commute will be a mess, and we expect delays and snow days for almost all students in Berkshire County tomorrow.

Here's a fascinating comparison. First, is the current radar:

Here is this morning's radar, over 12 hours earlier:

Not a lot of change, right? We can see the snow starting to fill in in New York and Western New England, and there is a clearly defined boundary for this storm. Fortunately, we are living on the right side of the tracks for this snow event.

We do expect the coastal low--you can start to see it beginning to take shape off the coast of New Jersey in the top image--to throw some snow at us in the form of those heavy bands of snow. Those bands will be the magic ingredient for a snow day tomorrow.

The forecast is for the snow to last right on through to midday. Perhaps it ends around 11 AM in South County and holds off until 1 PM in North County. But the ends of these things are harder to predict than the beginnings. (Maybe because once we get that snow day we lose a little bit of interest in the storm. Just a theory.)

It's about at this point in our early evening storm posts that we write about whether or not your Suprintendent will take away the suspense and phone in the delay or snow day tonight. We're sure there will be a few, but we think Superintendents want to wait this one out as A) we just had a day off Monday; and B) a lot of high schools are in mid-term exam time and no one wants to mess with those schedules--giant headache. On a positive note, a ton of districts in counties to our east have already phoned in the cancellation. Mohawk Trail and Greenfield are both off tomorrow.

Given that NWS Albany expects 6-10 inches for Western Mass, we'll bump up the chance of a delay to 95% and push the snow day to 80%. You can probably get away with blowing off your homework tonight, but if you have an exam tomorrow, you should put in a little study time just in case. Plus, if we do get the snow day, then you have a leisurely day ahead of you.

As soon as a single, solitary Berkshire County Superintendent breaks the ice, we'll start a running list of delays and cancellation decisions.

Wednesday Storm: Midday Report

Here's a really nice forecast map of the projected snowfall for this storm:

Thanks to Joe Bastardi for this image.

If you zoom in, here's what you'll see:

That purple blob indicates we are in line for 6-10 inches, with the eastern portion of Berkshire County closer to 10 inches and towns on the New York border closer to 6 inches. What's fascinating about this storm is how confident meteorologists are about the range of snowfall we're slated to get. The low end is 4 inches and the high end is 10 inches. For our last storm, our low end was an inch and the high end was 12-14 inches. This means that there is more certainty about the track of the storm, thus raising the chances for widespread snow days tomorrow.

The big factor that will affect our total snow amounts will be if "mesoscale banding" takes place. Essentially, this means bands, or waves, of very intense snow will move out across our area from the center of the storm off the coast. These bands could produce snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Snow will pile up quickly at that rate if banding occurs.

Schools are already starting to call off afternoon activities. Right now we know that North Adams and Mount Greylock have called off all of their practices, rehearsals, club meetings, and games for the evening. If you know that your school has canceled activities, add them to our Facebook page or in the comment section here.

To repeat from our earlier report: the snow you are seeing right now is not really part of the main storm. That will come tonight, and the intensity will be much higher than it is right now. Expect the heavy snow to start to come down between 7 and 9 PM.

Winter Storm Warning For The Berkshires

Excellent news, dear Followers of the Flake. Around 3:30 AM on Tuesday, the National Weather Service declared a Winter Storm Warning for the Berkshires that begins at 5 PM tonight and ends at 3 PM tomorrow. Most meteorologists are now expecting 6-9 inches to blanket the Berks.

There are two components to this storm. First, there is a minor low-pressure system coming out of the Great Lakes that will give us snow throughout the day today. A giant swath (see below) of snow stretching all the way back to Texas will gradually press northeastward--moving directly over Berkshire County--and give us light snow throughout the day today. Expect 2-3 inches on the ground by sundown due to phase I of the storm.

The 5 AM radar. That is one long swath of snow, and it will track right over us throughout the day today.

But the real snowmaker for us will be a coastal low-pressure system that is supposed to form off the mid-Atlantic coast and track toward Cape Cod. This storm will gain in strength as it forms and moves northeastward. If it behaves the way the models say it will, snow will intensify later this evening and well into the day tomorrow, with periods of heavy snow--one inch per hour--expected.

A few days ago the forecast was for the snow to end shortly after the morning commute on Wednesday. Now, the storm looks to be ending in the early afternoon. This is the best piece of new information for those desperate for a snow day tomorrow.

Superintendents are between a rock and a hard place on this storm. It's been hard to get into an academic rhythm lately with the snow and freeze situation on January 4th/5th and MLK Jr. Day yesterday, so they might be reluctant to make the call tomorrow. But the perfect timing of this storm will likely force their hands, and they will have to call in the snow day.

Thanks, NWS Albany, for the map.

We'll have much more later today on this storm--projected snowfall totals keep going up--but our early prediction is for mostly snow days tomorrow if the storm behaves as expected, and mostly delays if it busts. Games and performances tonight will have to be postponed.