Monday, January 15, 2018

Storm Approaches; Snow Begins Tomorrow Before Noon

We're all systems go for a moderate snowstorm for Tuesday and Wednesday. The GSD Staff is encouraged by the reports coming in about this storm, and most students should have the length of their school day affected in some way on Wednesday.

The NWS map keeps improving. Yes, NWS!
We have not seen the Watch upgraded to a Warning, so we'll hold off on total confidence in delays or snow days for Wednesday. Plus, this is not a blockbuster storm. It's a good moderate storm, but it's not a slam dunk.

Even if Berkshire County stays in the Watch zone until the onset of the storm, we're still expected to get a solid 4-6 inches of snow, with as much as 8 inches in some places (east-facing slopes of the Berkshire mountains and hills). The models are showing slightly more moisture with this storm than was originally forecasted, which is great to see. There is a chance we'll get moved to a Winter Storm Warning overnight tonight or early in the morning tomorrow.

Expect snow to start by late morning on Tuesday and last all the way through late morning on Wednesday. If this storm performs as expected, there will be a few strong bands of snow overnight Tuesday. We don't think many districts will make their call on Tuesday night, but the trend has been toward early announcements, so we could be entirely wrong on that front.

Not bad for WNYT, this early in the proceedings. Another encouraging sign.
Games and performances on Tuesday night are likely to be postponed due to the snow. Two to four inches should be on the ground by that time. Practices after school will be entirely dependent on the confidence and/or skittishness of your Superintendent.

We'll update you all throughout the day on Tuesday.

Upgraded: Winter Storm Watch For Tuesday Night & Wednesday

Greetings, Flake Followers. We have some good news to report. The National Weather Service has decided to drop a Winter Storm Watch on the Berkshires. This means we have the potential for 6+ inches of snow within a 24-hour period. This is a much rosier picture than the one we gave you yesterday.

The Watch period begins in the afternoon on Tuesday and ends Wednesday midmorning. So, you can see that it's not supposed to snow for that long.

Significant NWS upgrade.
The reason for the sudden announcement of a Watch is that the storm is supposed to stall over us slightly and allow energy from a coastal low off the Delmarva peninsula to join into the fun. We could see moderate and heavy bands of snow from this storm, which could get us close to 6 inches, which is essentially the magic number when it comes to snow days. Three to five inches feels skimpy; six inches has enough heft to it.

Coastal storm involvement courtesy of Accuweather.
The two items of concern are: 1) snow day Wednesday? 2) games/evening activities Tuesday? Right now we'll put the True North Confidence Meter at 33% for cancellations of both. The timing is just right to spoil the fun Tuesday night and bring students merriment on Wednesday morning.

If you want that snow day, let me hear you say [chanting] "Three Day Week! Three Day Week!"

We'll have more later today on this developing snow event. Cross-country skiers and sledders might get to do their things after all.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Midweek Snow: Not As Much As We'd Like

After the craziness of yesterday's flooding and rapidly falling temperatures, today (Sunday) turned out to be a frigid but calm day. Once again we're heading near the 0 mark on the thermometer, but the wind chill will not really be an issue.

Our midweek snowstorm will unfortunately stay as an Alberta Clipper and not develop as a coastal storm, as we were hoping it would. (Actually, it could develop as a coastal storm but that will happen off the coast of Maine and not impact our area much at all.) This means snow totals will be in the 1-3 inch range. It will probably not be enough to satisfy our cross country skiers and sledders, but it will cover the ground completely.

Good, but probably not good enough.
We will see snow this week. We should see a period of snow Monday evening, then snow showers throughout the day on Tuesday. The heaviest of this light snow event should then fall Tuesday night, perhaps lasting into Wednesday morning's commute. Our radar is up for possible delays on Wednesday, but overall the GSD Staff is not "feeling it" on this storm.

We'll monitor the Wednesday morning situation as we get closer to it. For now, enjoy MLK Jr. Day and the return of snow on Monday night.