Blizzard of 2015?

By now you're probably on to the fact that a major winter storm is expected to traumatize the Northeast starting Monday afternoon and lasting through Wednesday for parts of eastern Maine.

Yes, this storm really snuck up on meteorologists. It wasn't supposed to be a big deal three and four days ago, but then the models started to get into alignment and the storm started taking a northerly track.

A nice map from Boston meteorologist Dave Epstein's Twitter feed.

The B word--blizzard--is being thrown around out there by the talking heads of news/weather/sports outlets. When New York and Boston are slated to get a major snowstorm, it's as if the entire nation is being hit by the storm, so we're going to see a ton of hype with this one. We probably won't get to blizzard conditions in Western Mass. Remember, in order for a storm to be considered a blizzard, the following conditions must be met: 1) sustained winds or frequent gusts above 35 mph; 2) less than a quarter mile of visibility from falling and blowing snow; 3) conditions 1 and 2 must occur for at least three hours. So really, a blizzard is a snow storm with heavy winds.

The hype for this storm is not entirely groundless. The hardworking folks at GSD have been on the clock since the announcement of the Winter Storm Watch and all evidence points to a double digit snowfall for the Berkshires.

Already a few schools have called off after school activities for tomorrow, which seems premature. We will, however, see many cancellations of Monday night's athletic contests, concerts, and meetings. With Saturday's slate of games wiped out and most likely Monday's and Tuesday's games off the docket, end-of-season schedules just got a lot tighter for high school teams.

Winter Storm Watch for Monday/Tuesday

A few days ago an Alberta Clipper was supposed to impact our area on Monday with a chance of light snow. Today, we are very pleased to report that a potential blockbuster storm is on its way. This storm will start Monday afternoon and not end until Tuesday night. Over a foot of snow is likely.

The NWS is suggesting that between 8 and 16 inches of snow will fall, with some areas getting 20 inches. Other weather outlets are suggesting up to 2 feet. The GSD Staff is on high alert. Our True North Confidence Meter is currently reflecting how big this storm could be.

Feast your eyes on that! Thanks, Accuweather.

There still is some uncertainty with just how heavy the snow will be on Tuesday, but the timing looks good as does the duration of the storm. If meteorologists were more certain about the storm development, they would have issued a Warning by now, not just a Watch.

And that's really the only big development we will be looking for to move the Confidence Meter to 100% (that's right, you read that correctly). If the Watch becomes a Warning, then most schools will be calling in snow days for Tuesday. It's possible some will even make the call Monday night.

We need a quick turnaround on our storm's name so vote today!

Snowy Saturday; Countywide Advisory

[This post has been updated.]

Just a brief check in about the weather situation for tomorrow...

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Berkshire County tomorrow. The possibility of up to 6" exists for the southernmost parts of our area. Central and Northern Berkshire could see up to 4" from tomorrow's storm.

Projected snow fall totals by Sunday morning. Dark green is between 4 and 6 inches.

As for timing, we should see falling snow when we wake up tomorrow morning. The peak intensity looks like it will be between 9 AM and 12 PM tomorrow. The snow will begin to taper later in the afternoon as the storm bombs quickly through our area. Temperatures tomorrow will max out at 32 or 33 degrees, and as a result, it's possible for a brief period of sleet in the mid afternoon period. The snow/sleet should wrap up by 8 PM.

Take it slow out there tomorrow. It's nothing we haven't seen before, so we should be able to manage it, but allow extra time for your Saturday errands.