Winter Weather Advisory for Monday

We have good news and bad news.

The good news is that the NWS has bumped up our Monday storm to a Winter Weather Advisory level. The bad news is that the reason for this advisory is the threat of sleet and ice with this event. The timing is from 3 AM to 4 PM Monday.

The neutral news is that the storm might start later than we think. If it pushes back by 60 or 90 minutes, we still should be okay for delay decisions. If it's 2 or 3 hours later, we're going to have one of those mornings where Superintendents should have called a snow day but will not have. That's just going to make everyone even grumpier on a Monday morning.

Here's a shot of the 5 PM radar:

The precipitation is moving toward us in an east-northeast fashion. We wish the initial wall of moistrue were a little heavier to ensure that the roads will be coated thoroughly by 6 AM. We believe the front edge of the storm will hit around 4 AM, which still works in our favor, but we don't like the looks of that dry slot between Pittsburgh and Cincy.

We still think a few schools will have delays tomorrow, but not everyone in the County will be so lucky. Check in with GSD when you wake up--we'll have a running tally of delays going as soon as the calls come in.

A White Monday Morning Commute

For the third school/business day in a row, we have a likely delay scenario staring us dead in the face.

This map shows a middle confidence prediction for snow for our area by midnight on Monday. We are safely in the 2-3" forecast zone.

Here's what we know about the storm that we like:

1. Liquid expected with this storm is supposed to be about 0.3 inches--almost all models are in agreement. If we go with a modest snow-to-liquid ratio of 10 inches for every 1 inch of snow, even the worst high school math student can figure this out. (Hint: it's somewhere between 2 and 4.)

2. The snow is supposed to start shortly after 3 AM. We should have at least an inch on the ground by sunrise, according to NOAA.

3. Road conditions were very poor for Friday morning's commute. Monday's mini disturbance is strikingly similar to Friday's storm, minus one aspect (see #1 below).

Here's what we don't like about this storm:

1. The initial phase of snow will not be quite as intense as Friday's storm. This storm is coming in from the southeast, so it will be slower and last longer (a 10-12 hour event). Friday's storm, like a lot of failed high school romances, was faster and more intense.

2. The temperatures will be warmer so the snow will not adhere to the roads quite as well as it did on Friday.

3. Road crews had practice with Friday's storm and might be more efficient Monday. Just a theory.

So, what's going to happen...

Our best guess is that some and not all of schools in BC will have a 2-hour delay, with the usual suspects more in line for the delay than the stingier districts. Central Berkshire has been very liberal this year; the bigger city schools have been generous; South County schools less so (some of that has to do with simple geography.)

We'll know more about the timing much later tonight--post football play-off games--and offer up a final report for the pleasure of our readership. Good day!

Good Things Come in Threes

Happy Weekend, flake followers. We hope you enjoyed yesterday's light, fluffy, delay-inducing snow. The mini storm eluded are accurate prognostication (okay, fine, we missed it), but better to miss it the good way than the bad way. Now that would have been embarrassing.

This is all to say that we're giving you fair warning for a possible delay event for Monday. We could see an unprecedented third two-hour delay in a row for most Berkshire County schools. The current models are forecasting a light snow event--1 to 3 inches--but once again the time looks delightful. If the timing is right on the button as it was on Friday, we could see several delays. The other factor that road crews will have to contend with is the possibility of sleet mixing in.

Could it be? Another delay? (Thanks, Accuweather.)

The timing for this storm could change, which will greatly change our chances for a delay. Right now we're going to set the True North Confidence Meter at 25%. Check in throughout the weekend for updates. Unfortunately, though, we still see no major storms in the runs of the long-range forecast models. Alas.