Just a Bit Inside: The First Big Miss of the Season

Here's a good glimpse at the size of this pre-Thanksgiving blockbuster (almost) storm from our friends at NOAA-Albany: "This [storm] will nearly guarantee the heaviest precipitation in months over our region."

And we were really very, very close to a major snow event. The Adirondacks should see over half a foot of snow, and had the low pressure system tracked 75 miles to the east, the Berkshires would have been buried in snow. Instead, we'll nearly be drowned Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with upwards of 3" of rain. It's never quite fair to do the rain/snow equivalent of 1" of rain equaling 10" of snow (it never quite works out that way), but do the math and you can see that we narrowly missed--as a grandma might have said--a doozy of a storm.

Look for rain to o'erspread the Berkshires in the early afternoon on Tuesday. We may see a few flakes and hear some sleet at the onset but that won't last for very long. We won't see banding with this storm (intense periods of precipitation) like we might with a snow-making nor'easter, but the rain will be moderate and steady and last all the way until Wednesday night. At the end of the storm, as we stated yesterday's post, we'll see a few bursts of snow showers and squalls as the temps drop significantly. These bursts of snow could accumulate up to 1".

We'll let you know if anything changes, dear snow followers. The good news is we see an unsettled weather pattern settling in for the next few weeks. "Unsettled" is a word we want to see in the forecast, as that means several low pressure systems will be visiting these parts.

Thanksgiving Eve (11/24) Storm Update

The computer models are starting to line up and all indications suggest we will have a major storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unfortunately, not enough cold air is going to be in place, and the bulk of the precipitation will be in the form of wet, wet rain.

For those of you begging for a snow day on Wednesday--not all schools in the Berkshires have school that day--your best chance is to hope for a significant period of ice (in the form of sleet) in the critical pre-dawn hours when superintendents make their call. One of the computer models is calling for this scenario, but we think that model is optimistic.

Officially, the GSD staff is calling for about an inch of slushy snow after midnight on Tuesday followed by a good, old-fashioned rain storm during the day on Wednesday. Travel of any kind in the Northeast on Wednesday will be a bear even if it doesn't snow that much. By Wednesday late afternoon the storm should be tapering down, and many locales on Wednesday night could see a few accumulating snow showers and snow squalls as the storm heads toward the Canadian Maritimes. As the storm departs, we'll see a significant drop in the temperature and it will feel like January on Turkey Day, not late November.

We'll keep updating this storm to see if we need to bump up our chances for a delay on Wednesday.

We're Dreaming of a White Thanksgiving

We'll see several chances for snow in the air over the next few days (Saturday 11/23 and Monday night 11/25). It's unlikely the snow will accumulate on the ground, but the airborne white stuff (flurries and showers, mostly) should brighten snowhound's spirits as we get more and more into the winter mood.

But the big news is a possible Wednesday storm. Who wouldn't love a five day weekend? Right now the snow forecasting models are all over the place, but one of them is calling for a low pressure to move up the east coast and into the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. With below average temps firmly in place for the middle of next week, it's more likely than not that we'll see snow on Wednesday. How much--and how much that dastardly rain mixes in--all depends on the track of the low pressure and whether or not a secondary low forms and extends the period of precipitation for the Northeast.

As for the track of the storm, if it's too tight to the coast, we'll see the bulk of the snow fall in the Adirondacks. If the track is along the coast but not too tight, we could see a moderate snowfall (4-6") for Wednesday. If the track is even a little farther out, we'll definitely see snow but only an inch or two.

For those folks braving the highways and byways on Wednesday, you'll definitely want to keep your eyes and ears open about this potential medium-sized snow event.

That low over Georgia could track more northerly, bringing us our first storm of the season.