So, what would you do with an extra day off as part of this holiday weekend? It looks like--once again--things are trending in favor of a snow day. If GSD followers were at the craps table, they'd be checking the dice to see if they were loaded. Papa's getting a new pair of shoes!
The latest: snow begins after 4 am, it snows all day giving us 4-7 inches, and then ice kicks in between 3 and 4 pm. The earlier start is better for a snow day; the later-ness of the ice means we could make it through the day and then all after school activities would be cancelled. Still, the early snow start will weigh more heavily on the mind of the Super.
Given this latest forecast, we're moving the chance up to 85% on the basis of the earlier start to the storm and we're backing down on our call for an early release. The snow will start by 7 am at the latest so there's no sense in releasing the hounds early. GSD is not convinced the snow will start by 4 am, but if it does...your money's in the bank!
We're going to pay in June, but don't forget that the 21st century is officially "the Age of Instant Gratification" -- acronym "AIG."
Here are the latest snowfall predictions for the Tuesday storm:
Accuweather and TWC were low on the last two storms, so you should be thinking around 6" for this storm depending on the time of the sleet/ice changeover. Speaking of which, here's this little tidbit gleaned from the latest storm news at Accuweather:
The most significant icing will occur across the lower Hudson Valley of New York, western Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire, and portions of Maine on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will be due to the fact that cold air will be in place at the surface and milder air will rush in at higher levels in the atmosphere.
We can safely say that all afternoon and evening practices, games, and activities will be canceled or postponed on Tuesday. (Good luck getting those games rescheduled.)
Even though we really need all efforts concentrated on tomorrow's storm, we thought we'd just throw out this nugget from a report on a weather system for the end of the week:
Winter Weather Expert Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is concerned that if the two systems phase together upon reaching the Northeast, a heavy accumulation of snow would result, rather than just a few inches of snow.
As we approach the 18-hour mark before the storm arrives (6 or 7 am on Tuesday), there still is plenty of disagreement and uncertainty about the degree to which the storm will strike the Berkshires. The pattern of low pressure systems--one in the Midwest and one on the Southern coast--is nearly identical to last week's storm. Unfortunately, the amount of moisture is significantly less, and the timing of the transfer of energy from the Midwest low to the coastal low is the big question mark. If the transfer of energy happens fairly quickly, then the storm will be mostly snow to the tune of 6-8". If the two pressure systems take their time to co-mingle, then we will see about 2-4" of snow before a changeover to sleet and even freezing rain. (We should also point out that last week's storm and the December 26th storm were also initially low-balled by forecasters. Eight to twelve predicted inches quickly became 20-24" before all was said and done.)
Either scenario above is not ideal for travel in that 2:30--3:30 time slot. Again, GSD strongly endorses an announced early release tomorrow, but the chance of full snow day is still a very real possibility. This storm will go down to the wire. It is unlikely that you'll see GSD weigh in with a 100% chance prediction, but the chance for a snow day should remain at or above 75% for the time being.
Not a scenario we want to see on Tuesday (go to the 30 sec. mark & enjoy the videographer's great commentary)
With the 75% rating for the storm, GSD strongly encourages that you prepare for any major assignments (test, papers, and projects), but you certainly could risk not completing a regular homework assignment if you're the adventurous type who lives life on the edge.
