Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday

Things are heating up--literally and figuratively--and as of 4:07 am on MLK Jr. Day, the NWS has issued a WSW from 5:00 am Tuesday to 7:00 am Wednesday. This announcement certainly complicates matters when it comes to snow day prediction, but the trend, GSD friends, is upwards.

If you hadn't had just experienced the bliss of a snow day last night, then the Super would definitely call a snow day tomorrow in anticipation of a wintry mess. Since we just had one, the Superintendents of all of the county's schools and districts are going to be reluctant to call a second snow day, especially for a storm that is supposed to happen instead of already happening (like last week's was).

Let's remember, though, the addition of ice into the mix (pun fully intended) and how much of an impact that ingredient can have. Supers, in general, fear ice. No one in their right minds puts dozens of half-crazed 16-, 17-, and 18-year old drivers out on roads with ice on them. Right now the prediction is for the snow to turn to a wintry mix in the afternoon, probably around the time that you are released from the clutches of your school--not ideal for the Super, but ideal for a full snow day or possibly an early release.

So...here's the official GSD stance on this storm as of now. We see an 75% chance of a full snow day, and a 50% chance of a pre-announced early release at 11:30 for the high school and 12:00 for the elementary schools. The amount of snow fall isn't a huge factor for this storm as the bulk of it will be falling after the Super makes the decision. We should see 4-6" out of the storm and then a shift to ice and freezing rain. As for the pre-announced early release, that's probably what our district should do (but in the past never has). But, because we have a new regime in place, we can not rule out a new policy of progressive thinking from the Super's office when it comes to snow day decisions.

Look for updates throughout MLK Day.

Snow and Ice for Tuesday

The four-day weekend is still very much a reality. The staff of GSD is in agreement that this is not a MSE, but this morning when we gathered in the GSD Weather Bunker, we were very much divided on the snow day potential of this storm. Some of us agree with the folks at the Weather Channel, who think that there probably will be enough could air in place to give us a good shot of snow 3-5" before things get dicey and turnover to sleet and freezing rain. Others agree with the Accuweather folks and see significant icing (1/2", which doesn't sound like much but would certainly be enough to cancel school).

Still, as we declared quite clearly in the last post, the deciding factor for the Super about this snow day is the timing. Right now it looks like the storm will start around the time of the morning commute.Will the Super pull the trigger and cancel school in the face of snow and icing ? Or, will the Super role the dice and hope that road crews can keep up with the relatively light precipitation?

Look for tomorrow's post to nail down the start of the storm. Everything is riding on the timing.

Look What's on the Way

Thanks, Accuweather

That right there, my friends, is a wintry mess. Warm moisture from the south is going to drift up the coast and override the very cold air in the north. The GSD-following area is right on that snow/icy mix line, which will make for a very interesting storm system. The precipation amount looks good for a potential snow day, (whether it's snow or ice), but the big question mark is the timing. Our concern is that it might start too late on Tuesday and then end too early on Wednesday to get us to glory.

By Sunday we'll have firmer evidence and be able to make a more informed prediction. But things are definitely trending upward.