Cancellations for Monday, Feb. 23

Some of the short-range models have predicted a slight easterly shift to the center of the storm, which could knock a few inches off our expected snow totals. But this is still a serious snow that will produce 6-12" of snow and 40+ mph winds on Monday.

To no one's surprise, school districts and colleges are calling in the snow day already. It's going to be a clean sweep. Here is our list so far. [Updated 5:45 PM, Sunday]

Snow Days:

Bement School

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Waldorf

Central Berkshire
Emma Miller

Farmington River
Hoosac Valley

Lee
Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire

The Vacation Extender: Nor'easter of Feb. 22/23

There has been little change to the forecast overnight, which means a big storm will be hitting the Berkshires. 

NWS Boston

Although we won't be in the jackpot zone--those honors go to southeastern New England--we still are expected to see 8-12". By our calculations, that is more than enough to cancel school on Monday.

The three big factors working in our favor: 1) Moderate and high snow totals; 2) Perfect timing; 3) High winds on Monday.

The snow is expected to start between 8 and 11 PM. It will snow first in South County and then gradually push northward. We may see a few flakes and even a light accumulation during the day today, but that is just bonus snow before the coastal storm really starts to intensify later in the day.

Meteorologists are expecting the heaviest snow to fall in the early hours of Monday, with rates of 1-2" per hour possible. It will definitely be snowing in the "golden hour" (4-5 AM) when Superintendents rise and determine the fates of hundreds of students and their families (at least for that day).

As we noted yesterday, we can not underestimate the wind with this storm and how difficult visibility is going to be Monday morning. Sustained 20 mph winds with gusts into the 40s will lead to white out conditions. There aren't too many bus companies that are going to willingly put their drivers out there in white out conditions.

NWS Albany

One factor that might work against some students is a sharp snow cut-off line on the northern edge of the storm. This cut-off line is currently forecasted to be in Vermont, but a slightly more southerly track could bring that cut-off line into Northern Berkshire county. South County schools will still be safe and well below that dreaded line.

At this juncture the GSD Staff is much more optimistic about this storm and its potential to extend public school students' vacations one more day. In fact, we expect several Superintendents to make their decision tonight.

The Staff will be monitoring things all day, and we'll do one more report in the late afternoon. Get the high snow boots out and have the shovels ready!

Major Northeast Storm -- Sunday/Monday, Feb. 22/23

As Ron Burgundy would say, "Boy, that escalated quickly."

As soon as we pressed "publish" on this morning's update on the Winter Storm Watch, NWS Albany came in over the top and upgraded our Watch to a Warning. The impetus for the heightened concern about this storm most likely resulted from the latest run of the NAM, which gives meteorologists more fine-tuned and shorter-range predictions. The NAM showed a more northerly track for the storm and higher precipitation rates.

The current models are now showing 5-12 inches of snow with the lesser amount in the northwest corner of Berkshire County and the greater amount in the southeast corner.

We still think there will be a "market correction" on these snow totals before the first flakes fall tomorrow, but this nor'easter is definitely trending in a more northerly direction.

The Euro AI-supported model. This would be enough for many schools to have full snow days.

As for snow days on Monday, the chances of them are also trending in a more northerly direction. As long as South County gets 6+ inches, there's little chance schools south of Pittsfield will have school. Snow days for schools north of Pittsfield might not quite have the volume of snow to merit full snow days. But the excellent timing of the storm could easily lead to delays.

The big X factor for this storm is going to be the wind. As this nor'easter strengthens just off the mid-Atlantic coast, it is going to intensify and generate strong winds. Coastal areas from Delaware to the north shore of Massachusetts have Blizzard Warnings in place. Here's a reminder on the conditions that need to be met for a Blizzard warning: For a 3+ hour period, snow must reduce visibility to less than a 1/4 mile and sustained winds must be over 35 mph.

Image courtesy of the Boston Globe.

In the Berkshires we will not get to blizzard-level conditions, but we still will need to deal with a ferocious and gusting wind. Gusts into the 40 mph range could occur midday on Monday, making visibility a real issue. If we do end up with a clean sweep for snow days for Berkshire County schools, it will largely be due to the wind.

Sometimes we ask you to root for ice. For this storm--if you're keen to have a snow day--you need to root for wind.

Further updates coming on Sunday!

Winter Storm Watch -- Sunday/Monday, Feb. 22-23

At the GSD Home Office, we tacked on 5 more inches to our seasonal snow total of 44.2". But the big news is a developing coastal storm that could impact school on Monday.

The last two weather-makers were clippers that came in from the west/northwest. This Sunday/Monday storm, though, will be a good old-fashioned coastal storm. That means it has much more moisture associated with it and could produce a moderate to heavy snowfall, especially for South County.

NWS Albany has put up a Winter Storm Watch that begins Sunday morning and ends Monday afternoon. The long-ish duration of the watch means that snow could pile up.

But there's a lot of uncertainty still about the track of the storm. Should it continue to trend more northerly, we will see the Watch upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. If the storm flattens out and heads more out to sea, we may see the Watch cancelled or turned into Winter Weather Advisory for lighter snow amounts.

The County's last clean sweep of snow days back on January 26 was a slam dunk and most Superintendents called in the snow day the day before. Such is not the case for this storm. The cut-off line between 5-7" and 1-2" will be fairly distinct, so this will be a storm that we'll have to wait out until Monday morning.

The current position of the GSD Staff on this storm is "less confident" (but that is always subject to change!). South County schools will have a much better chance of snow days than North County schools. The timing looks really good so delays and full snow days are very much in play. But we could see a scenario where districts like North Adams, Mount Greylock and Hoosac Valley have a full day of school, and Southern Berkshire has the day off. There could be that much difference in predicted snow amounts south to north.

As for the models, take a look below:

Euro

North American

Short-range NAM

You can see that there's still some discrepancy between the Euro and the North American. Connecticut and Rhode Island schools are definitely looking at full snow days, but it's still a little iffy for our entire County. The NAM does tend to run a little hot, so its 8-12" prediction is almost assuredly too high.

Much more to come on this developing very interesting situation.

Winter Weather Advisory for Friday, Feb. 20

The Winter Weather Advisory that we just had on Wednesday proved to be a bust at the GSD Home Office--just a few wet flakes and no accumulation--and we now have a second Advisory level storm to deal with on Friday.

Your weather app may be showing a moderate snowfall for Friday into Saturday, but we're not so sure this storm is going to generate that much snow.

NWS Albany

The Winter Weather Advisory is calling for a combination of mixed precipitation and snow. The forecast is for 2-4" for the County, with a the northeast hill towns seeing up to half a foot. Southern Vermont and the Adirondacks have Winter Storm Warnings posted. 

According to NWS Albany meteorologists, the precipitation will start as snow then transition to mixed precipitation then switch back over to snow. We should be right around 32 degrees for the day, which is why we will see snow and mixed precipitation. The transitions are supposed to happen throughout the day and early evening then snow showers will continue after midnight. If there is a period of heavier snow, it will take place well after dark. 

Accuweather's map shows the path of this clipper system.

Both the North American and Euro models are showing 4-6", but the shorter-term NAM model is showing less precipitation. The runs of the NAM model are telling us that snow totals will be on the lower end of the 2-4" prediction and we agree with that prediction.

Expect a messy day on Friday!

Winter Weather Advisory -- Wed. Feb. 18

We have another midweek Winter Weather Advisory to deal with. This one again results from a clipper system that will move into our area this afternoon. We should see 1-3" around Berkshire County when the snow finishes up before midnight.

Because it's so warm out, the storm may start with a period of wintry mix before it transitions to all snow as the air column cools. This snow will be wet and heavy.

NWS Albany snow map for Wednesday, Feb. 18.

Wintry mix and/or snow should start this afternoon around 2 PM in most locations. Any games or events this evening may be cancelled, but the more intrepid ADs and Superintendents will carry on.

The next storms are expected to impact our area Friday and Sunday/Monday. Friday's storm will be similar to tonight's storm. And we're definitely keeping an eye on the late weekend storm to see if it will impact school on Monday. The models are not in agreement so it may be a long shot, but meteorologists keep mentioning the possibility so we'll stay on it.

Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday Night, Wednesday Morning

Today the National Weather Service expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include the Berkshires because of a slight shift in the forecast. We are still expected to get 1-2" of snow--with a few places in Northern Berkshire getting 3"--but we may see a period of icing before this clipper system slides on by.

The expected ice accumulation is not supposed to be particularly thick, but it could be enough of a hazard to cause delays for the Wednesday morning bus runs.

We think many road crews will be able to handle the low snow total and potential ice, but we expect at least a few schools will go with the delayed start. South County school districts have a higher chance for ice, so our best bets for delays will be schools around or south of I-90.

NWS Albany ice map for tomorrow (Wednesday AM). This is the only time we will be rooting for ice to come into our community.

We'll run a list tomorrow morning should a few districts call in the 2-hour delay.

Warmer This Week and Two Chances for Snow

It appears the worst of the cold is behind us, as temperatures will moderate this week and return to more seasonal norms. We'll see the thermometer move into the 30s during the day and mid-teens overnight. It's certainly possible for us to go as low as we did this past weekend--negative 12 on Sunday morning--but it's a sound bet that we won't get that cold again this winter.

A few schools in New York delayed the start of school due to the cold today (Monday), but the Superintendents of the Berkshires and Western Mass did not call in two-hour freeze delays.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

As for snow this week, we are looking at two potential storms. The first is another clipper system for Tuesday afternoon and night, which means a lighter snowfall of 2-3" for much of Berkshire County. There's a chance that the storm could pick up more energy off the coast for Wednesday but that scenario is unlikely. There is a chance for delays on Wednesday but we do not have a lot of confidence that schools will start late that day.

The GSD Staff is also seeing some chatter about a coastal storm for the weekend. Both models are showing favorable conditions for snow. It's not expected to be a huge storm, but travel on Sunday and the commute to work could be impacted on Monday. Many people have Monday off due to school vacation week and President's Day, so school closings are not a concern.

The Euro model showing snow for late in the weekend.

We'll keep an eye on Tuesday's small storm just in case it leads to delays on Wednesday. 

Friday Night Snow Then Dangerously Cold Temps

We've made it to Friday, and there is only one week of school until the public schools enjoy their February break. February break always seems to come upon us very quickly. Maybe school officials should think about pushing it back a week or two, as the stretch between February break and April break without a holiday is quite long. 

An Alberta clipper will pass through our area late tonight and drop 1-3 inches of snow on the County by Saturday afternoon. The snow will be light and fluffy and should be easy to clear. Roads will be snow-covered for a stretch but should be fine if motorists take a little extra time.

NWS Albany snow projection for the Friday/Saturday clipper.

Then the cold kicks in and the winds pick up. Temps will bottom out between -5 and -10 Sunday morning, and some places will see 30-40 mph wind gusts. That drops the "real feel" temp to -25 to -35 degrees. Exposed skin can get frostbitten in about 10 minutes in those conditions so bundle up.

The North American model's temperature forecast for 6 AM Monday. Freeze delays are possible.

The high temp on Super Bowl Sunday will be in the single digits, which means Monday morning will also be very cold. Again, we'll see temps around -5 to -10. This means freeze delays are in play for Monday morning. A Patriots win coupled with a two-hour freeze delay would be a delightful way to start the week.

Your Standard Winter Week Ahead (Feb. 2-6)

The week of February 2-6 will be the most basic of winter weeks. We'll see highs in the 20s during the day, lows in the teens at night, and a chance for an inch or two of snow on Friday. Very basic, very boring, and no weather-related delays or cancellations are expected.

Our friend Phil the groundhog did see his shadow down in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania this morning, which means we have another 6 weeks of winter ahead of us. Given the cold and relatively snow-filled season we've had already, this makes sense.

Punxsutawney Phil

The only unusual weather to look out for is another shot of very cold air next weekend. After the clipper system enters our area on Friday afternoon through Friday night, more bitter cold air comes in behind it. Daily highs on the weekend will only be in the single digits Saturday and Sunday.

Get outside and enjoy the milder temps this week. It will be a great week for sledding, snowshoeing, skiing and other winter outdoor activities.