Latest Developments on Tuesday's Storm -- Winter Storm Watch

Earlier today the National Weather Service in Albany announced a Winter Storm Watch for all of Berkshire County for Tuesday. This is an encouraging sign especially that we are 36 hours out from the start of the snow.

NWS Albany can now go one of two ways with this storm. They can upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning on Monday, which means they think we're going to see 6+ inches of snow. Or, they could go with a Winter Weather Advisory, which means only 2-5 inches is expected.

Fortunately for us, meteorologists seem to favoring the Warning scenario. The models are definitely not in full agreement. The traditional Euro takes the storm farther out to sea, which means less snow and only the Advisory. The North American and the Euro AI model both show most of the county getting 6-7 inches. 

And now let us introduce you to our friend the NAM, another North American Model. It's used for shorter range forecasting. Well, here's what it's predicting today:

Love the NAM.

Do we think the NAM is right? Highly, highly unlikely. Is the NAM ever right? Our experience with the NAM with snow storms is rarely. But this map is enough to give meteorologists pause, causing them to lean toward higher snow totals for the area, which we do appreciate.

Tomorrow will be a big day and should give us more insight about the track and onset of snow. There's a lot of reason to be optimistic for snow days for many in Berkshire County on Tuesday. We'll need to temper our expectations (GSD Staff and readers alike) lest we get too far ahead of ourselves, but there's really been no bad news about this storm in the last 24 hours.

T-Minus 48 Hours (Tuesday, Dec. 2 Storm)

Many of us in the Berkshires are getting to enjoy a few scattered flakes today (Sunday). It's a nice mood-setter if you are out and about getting a tree or setting up your home decorations.

The big news, of course, is the potential coastal storm for Tuesday. The more information we've been able to gather, the more likely it appears we'll be seeing 4+ inches of snow on Tuesday starting around 5 AM and lasting throughout the day and into Tuesday night. 

Image courtesy of NWS Albany

Right now, we think it's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not school will be cancelled. We'll bump the early release up to 60%, but not a lot of Superintendents like the release, so for those districts it will be a full snow day or nothing.

This map shows our chances (70-80%) of getting 6+" of snow from the storm.

The things that meteorologists and models appear to agree on are that 1) there is a enough cold air in place for all snow; 2) the snow will start before or right around daybreak on Tuesday. What is less agreed upon is the track of the center of the low pressure system. Further south and away from the coast means less snow. Closer to the coast will allow more moisture to enter the equation and give us more snow. 

One model we've seen is showing almost an inch of liquid precipitation. If we use our standard snow-to-liquid ratio of 10 inches for every 1 inch of liquid, we should have no problem getting 6+ inches of snow.

This map shows a 70-90% chance for a Winter Storm Warning for the Berkshires (red areas). Map courtesy of NOAA.

It's only been good news so far today, so keep thinking snowy thoughts and locate those boots, shovels, and sleds. 

Update on the Tuesday Storm

The GSD Staff is deep into the Model Watch zone as we are under 72 hours before our first decent snow storm of the season.

Things are still looking good for measurable snow. What we're less certain about is how much the storm will impact the school day on Tuesday.

The models are both still showing measurable snow for most of southern and coastal New England. It definitely looks as if some places will see 8+ inches of the good white stuff. So much depends on the track of the storm, as usual.

The North American model is still coming in strong with 5-6 inches of snow for most in the Berkshires.

The North American (GFS) model forecast.

The Euro model, though, continues to push forward a more modest forecast. We would see measurable snow and messy roads but only 2-4 inches. 

The standard Euro model forecast.

Interestingly, the Euro model's newest iteration--an AI-enhanced ensemble called the ECMWF-AIFS--is showing widespread 6" for all of the Berkshires. It will be fun to see who wins the battle of the model wars come Wednesday.

Welcome to the party, AI-enhanced Euro model!

We see no need to move the numbers on the Confidence Meter just yet. We are really starting to like the potential start to the storm--5 AM on Tuesday--which could lead to many snow days because of the threat of terrible road conditions at the end of the school day. At least that's what the optimists in the office are hoping for.

We'll be dialing in on the timing and track as we get more information tonight and tomorrow.

Possible Nor'easter Next Week

In our last post we presented a less than rosy forecast for the first week of December. Well, that forecast could be completely wrong as models are now showing a chance for a nor'easter for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Here's what the latest runs of the models are showing:

The Euro model (Friday PM run).

The North American model (Friday PM run).

The North American model (the GFS) is definitely out of its mind, but even if the storm performs 50% of what the model is showing, we're still in for a full day and evening of accumulating snow.

We do like that the models are starting to move toward agreement about the track of the storm. If we put the two models together, a 3-6" storm is a realistic scenario.

The GSD staff is now on full alert and we'll be updating about this storm daily.

Thanksgiving Week Forecast -- Still Waiting For A Storm

Happy Thanksgiving Week! We made it. And with this late Thanksgiving date this year, before we know we'll be on Holiday break for December. Time will fly because we'll be having fun.

This year there are 17 school days between Thanksgiving break and the December holiday break. And this means 17 chances for a snow day.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the first week of December is not that inspiring, but we'll get to the long-range forecast in a minute.

First, what can we expect for our Turkey Day week? After a good dousing of rain Tuesday night (close to half an inch), things will really warm up on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s. It will still be gloomy, and it will also be very blustery. We could see some more rain Wednesday evening, but temps will return to more normal levels for this time of year on Thursday and gradually work their way down to the 30s for the weekend. 

Thanksgiving Day does look dry so everyone should be able to get outside for their pre-feasting exercise.

If you want snow this week, head west! This snow forecast is through Friday morning.

Locations west of here will see plenty of snow at the end of the week. We in the Berkshires might see a few lake effect flakes on Friday but otherwise we'll stay dry.  Over the weekend low temps at night time will be in the mid-20s, which will allow for plenty of snow-making at your favorite local ski facility.

We will have rain to end the long weekend and then winter sets in for the first week of December. High temps that week will be around freezing, and waiting at the bus stop will be slightly uncomfortable as each day will start with the mercury around 20 degrees.

Unfortunately, we are not seeing any bursts of precipitation during the cold(ish) snap in early December. Sunny skies will prevail for the first part of the week. 

So enjoy your time off this week, and keep thinking snowy thoughts for December!

Cold But Not Much Snow In The Forecast (week of Nov. 17)

The Veterans' Day snowfall came in slightly better than expected, and we registered 2.1 inches at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. We benefitted from lake effect action and upslope snow that produced a few moderate bands around midday.

As we turn our attention to the next ten (or so) days before the Thanksgiving break, we see plenty of cold air early in that stretch but not much snow in the forecast. Tonight (Saturday) we will see rain and then a very blustery Sunday. There are Winter Weather Advisories to our west and north for tonight, but too much warm air will be in place for us to get any wintry precipitation.

NWS Albany

We might see a few flakes Sunday night into Monday morning, but other than that, that's it for snow for a while. The models are sending mixed signals about possible precipitation around Thanksgiving, but no snow storms are expected for the next two weeks.

We can expect temps in the 30s early in the week and then gradually the thermometer will top out in the high 40s for the end of the week and next weekend. It looks like Thanksgiving week will feature high temps in the mid 40s with lows in the high 20s at night.

We wish we had a more encouraging forecast to share. We'll have to be patient through the Thanksgiving break and then see what December will bring.

Snow in the Berkshires This Week (Nov. 10-14)!

It certainly will feel wintery this week as a piece of the polar vortex will break off and usher in the coldest air of the season so far. Due to this abrupt change in the atmospheric conditions, we should see a very minor snowfall in a significant portion of the Berkshires this week.

Alas, it will not be enough to cause a delay or a snow day as it looks like the snow will fall on Veterans' Day, one that many have off from school and work.

According to our observations of weather maps and models, we are expecting snow showers Monday night and possible accumulating snow on Tuesday, especially in higher terrain. At most we could see 1.5", but realistically we'll see a light coating on grassy surfaces before it quickly melts away the next day.

The North American model's snow prediction for Tuesday. Not much there. This image comes from the Sunday afternoon run of the model.

Just how cold will it be? Most of the week we'll see highs around 40, plus or minus a few degrees, but Tuesday will be particularly chilly. The northern half of the Berkshires and the hill towns will not likely get above freezing. And that's a major reason why snow is in the forecast for Tuesday. 

This brief weather-maker is not really anything to get too excited about, but it's always fun to see those first flakes of the year and remind us that the holiday season is just around the corner.

Think snow!

Welcome to Winter 2025-26! Let the Flakes Fly

The Greylock Snow Day staff cordially welcomes you back to all the flake following madness that we are expecting for the winter of 2025-26. It's great to be back and have all you loyal readers back "dialed in" on the wintry weather in store for us.

The weather pattern was active in October with one nor'easter and an almost one to end the month. Rain totals were above normal for the month (over 4.5 inches of rain compared our typical 2.8 inches). It's unusual that we had no snow at all as we usually get flurries or snow showers at some point, but we did not register any frozen precipitation at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown prior to Halloween.

Image courtesy of Northeast Regional Climate Center (at Cornell).

With the clocks switching back this weekend, it's time to start thinking seriously about our up-coming winter. Temps are starting to drop below freezing in the overnight hours, so we know snow and other frozen precipitation will soon be falling in our neck of the woods.

The long-range winter forecast for New England is only moderately encouraging. This winter we will be feeling the effects of a La Nina pattern, which generally means that temps will be slightly high for southern New England but colder for northern New England. Also, generally La Nina usually means a slightly wetter winter.

Translating this info into snow storms is tricky. Typically, snow totals be normal or slightly above normal for the winter when La Nina is in effect. Because of the increased chances for precipitation but the warmer temps, we will probably see several storms start out as snow change over to sleet then all rain. Also, we may get a moderate or heavy snow storm but then see the snow melt away in the following days. The good news about a La Nina winter is the increased chances for precipitation and storms.

According to two reliable models (the North American and the Euro), there is the chance for measurable Monday or Tuesday, November 10 and 11. The Euro is showing a possible 2-3" snowfall for Tuesday. The GFS (North American) is showing a more substantial event (see below). We'll keep an eye on it, but it's been our history with the models that they are typically shakier early in the season than in the middle of winter.

The Saturday (11/1) afternoon run of the North American model for Monday, November 10th.