Coldest Air on the Planet on Saturday

We picked up an even 1 inch of snow last night in Williamstown (and currently are experiencing a nice snow globe snow), but we are still well under our seasonal averages for the season. Today's temps in the 20s will help slightly, but January 2023 will go down as one of the warmest on record. (Boston, for example, did not have a single day with the high temp below freezing, and New York has yet to have a measurable snow fall this winter.)

The big weather news will be an intense shot of cold air heading our way for Saturday. Unfortunately for all the pond skaters out there, this deep freeze is going to only last a day.

Saturday morning we are looking exceedingly cold temps in Western Massachusetts, with most people seeing negative double digits at sunrise. Meteorologist Ben Frechette has observed that the coldest air mass in all the world will be over New England on Saturday morning. And with 10 mph winds expected, wind chill values will be approaching -40 at sunrise.

If Saturday were a school day, freeze delays and freeze days would have occurred.

As for storms, we have nothing to report. Temps will creep back up toward 40 after the deep freeze. There will be precipitation in the air next week, but it looks like it's going to be of the liquid variety.

This Friday will be cold as well--highs in the teens--and then we will experience what will likely be the coldest day of the winter on Saturday with highs in the single digits. Take care.

Early Releases For Wednesday, January 25

NWS Albany and other local meteorologists have pushed back the start time of the snow to early afternoon. But last night many school districts announced an early release for today (see below). We are expecting 3-6" throughout the County with heavy snow for the evening commute. Look for first flakes around 2 or 3 PM.

Last Update: Wed. Jan. 25 8:33 AM

EARLY RELEASE (noon closing unless otherwise indicated):

Adams-Cheshire 
BART

Berkshire Montessori
Central Berkshire

Emma Miller (11:30)
Hancock (11:30)
Hillcrest

Lee (HS -- 11:26; Elem -- 12:05)

Lenox (HS -- 11:15; Elem -- 11:45)

Mount Greylock (HS -- 11:10; Elem -- 11:50)
North Adams (HS -- 11 AM; Elem -- 11:30)
Pine Cobble School 
Pittsfield (HS -- 10:50; MS -- 11; Elem -- 11:45)

Richmond Consolidated (Pre-K & K -- 11:45; Gr. 1-8 -- 11:55)

Stamford, VT

Downgrade: Winter Weather Advisory In Effect But Early Releases Are In Play (Wednesday, Jan. 25)

A couple of developments have occurred that could impact the length of the school day tomorrow:

*Most importantly, snow totals are down now about 1.5" from earlier this morning. This means 3" or so for the entire County with higher totals in the eastern hill towns (approaching 6"). This moved the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory.

*Snow is expected to start between 11 and 12 AM in South County and noon and 1:00 PM in North County. 

*The winds are going to be nasty tomorrow night. Gusts up to 45 mph. Isolated power outages are likely.

NWS Albany

Snow is expected to end around midnight--at the latest--for much of Berkshire County before the changeover to sleet and then drizzle. 

There's no real change to our prediction for Thursday (very low chance for delays and snow days most students), but the expected earlier start time for the snow tomorrow is definitely raising a red flag in the GSD Office. 

How much blowback your Superintendent received last Friday (when it started snowing at 7 AM) will likely determine if your district opts for the early release. Supers would prefer not to deal with that again. Logistically, the early release is a nightmare for families with elementary school children, so we are not expecting widespread early releases, but a few districts could go with that option.

We are still confident that after school and Wednesday evening activities will be cancelled for most schools. 

Winter Storm Watch For Wednesday (Jan. 25)

In a slightly surprising move, NWS Albany went right to the Winter Storm Watch early this morning (Tuesday). We thought we'd see the Winter Weather Advisory first, but the Watch indicates that the snow is going to come down hard for at least several hours on Wednesday.

NWS Albany

Unfortunately, the timing of this storm--for school cancellation purposes--is absolute trash, as the kids say these days. The storm should start between 2 and 3 PM--most likely ruling out early releases on Wednesday--and the snow is going to transition to mixed precip and drizzle by midnight. Town DPWs will have more than enough time to clean up the roads before the high school/middle school bus runs on Thursday morning.

So, you should expect no activities after school on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. We know some of you teachers out there will be very sad to miss your Wednesday faculty meeting, but it's highly likely an administrative email will give you all the critical information you will have missed.

WWLP Springfield

If there are delays on Thursday, they will come from the east side of the County. From Florida Mountain on down through Central Berkshire and Richmond Consolidated--those districts have the best shot at a shorter day.

Further developments are possible, so we'll keep monitoring it throughout the day today and tomorrow. Right now, though, it looks like Wednesday afternoon and night will be a good time to stay off the roads, and Thursday morning's commute should be manageable enough not to need a delay.

For longer term planning, we see cooler trends and average precipitation in the forecast for the next few weeks. Translation: more winter!

Snow (Round 3) Arrives Wednesday

It appears the models were accurate with this storm, and the predicted higher snow totals did materialize in Northern Berkshire. Parts of Southern Berkshire did fine as well with 4-6" in many locations. It seems Pittsfield started out slowly (last night), but finished strongly with heavier snows throughout the day and driving totals up to the 6" range.

Lenox and Lee were the lone noteworthy holdouts with full days of school day (presuming no early release). Bold.

We will not be waiting long before our next round of plowable snow. A system will emerge out of the Ohio Valley and gather energy on the coast (Miller B-type). The storm will start as snow, but because the track of the storm will push into New England, too much warm air will come into play and it's going to change over to rain shortly after midnight.

Back on the horse!

The timing of this storm is poor for snow days on Thursday. The expected onset is 1:00 on Wednesday. Games, concerts, plays, meetings and other school activities will most assuredly be cancelled Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. There's an outside chance some schools decide to shorten the day on Wednesday because they don't want inexperienced drivers out on the roads. Also, if the snow does pile up and holds on well after midnight, we could see some delays on Thursday.

There's a lot of liquid with this storm so a range of 3-7" of snow is predicted for the county. If you want another snow day for Thursday, you're going to want the track of the storm to move south and east, and you'll want the storm to slow down. We'll be monitoring the changes throughout the night and all day tomorrow to see if the snow forecast gets better for us. Many parts of Vermont are expecting 8-15 inches with this storm, so it is a fairly big one.

Let's look for the announcements of Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories tomorrow, and then we'll see if we have to make any adjustments to our predictions for Thursday.

Cancellations and Delays for Monday, January 22

Snow continues to fall at the GSD Home Office (about 3" so far), and we are expecting several more inches by the storm's end later this afternoon. Almost all schools have gone with the full day. Enjoy the day off and we'll put up our thoughts about the next storm (Wednesday night into Thursday) later today.

LAST UPDATE: Monday Jan. 23 5:54 AM

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Waldorf School

SNOW DAY: 

Adams-Cheshire

BART

Bement School

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Hills

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller 

Florida

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

MCLA

McCann
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional

North Adams

Pine Cobble School

Pittsfield

Richmond

Southern Berkshire
Southwestern Vermont SU (Mt. Anthony)
Stamford, VT

OTHER:

Williams College -- Admin Offices open at 10:00; Children's Center open at 9:30.

Winter Storm Warning For Northern Berkshire; Snow To End Afternoon Monday

With more information coming in overnight, the situation continues to get better for the Berkshires. The Winter Storm Watch for Northern Berkshire is now a Warning, which means 5-10 inches of snow will fall (higher amounts in higher elevations). The Winter Weather Advisory for South County (2-6 inches) has now been extended into the afternoon. Full snow day potential is higher now for southern tier districts.

We don't usually show the NAM Model but this is a good one.

Snow should start between 6 and 8 PM. There might be some sleet and rain mixing in after midnight, but then it will transition back to all snow in the morning hours for the entire county. Because the morning commute is going to be a complete mess, here's what we're thinking in terms of snow days and delays. (We'll blend this info in the actual Confidence Meter on the right):

Highly Likely Snow Day: All districts and schools north of and including Pittsfield and Central Berkshire.

50/50 Chance: Districts south of Pittsfield except Southern Berkshire. 

A Chance but Highly Likely Delay: Southern Berkshire.

This tweet from NWS Boston shows the expected precipitation type and expected duration of the storm (well worth a watch). We like how it shows the transition back to snow in the morning hours for Southern Berkshire. We might see a scenario where districts there call a delay and then upgrade to a snow day.

NWS Albany

We do think some districts will call in the snow day this evening, so we (hopefully) we will be running a list later this evening.

Monday should be a really good day for snowperson creation and sledding. The skiing will just be "okay" due to the heavy wetness of the snow. But no matter how you prefer to spend your snowy day, it's going to be a classic wintery day in New England.

Winter Storm Watch For No. Berkshire; Winter Weather Advisory For So. Berkshire (Monday, Jan. 23)

The good news is that there's no real change to the forecast for the Sunday/Monday storm. An encouraging sign is that NWS Albany has hoisted the Winter Storm Watch flag for Northern Berkshire. Southern Berkshire has a Winter Weather Advisory.

Both advisories will take us through the morning commute. The Watch ends in the vaguely termed "afternoon," while Advisory will end at 10 AM. The simple translation is that snow days are more likely for Northern Berkshire, and delays will be the more popular option for South County schools.

The timing is good, but we are concerned that the snow could end too early for South County. We are also concerned about the fast movement of the storm. It should only be a 12-15 hour event. 

Snow should start late afternoon or early evening and be steady throughout the night. It could start as rain or mixed precipitation because temps will actually be above freezing at the start of the storm. The falling snow actually helps pull cold air down with it, which is why we will see snow even though temps might not suggest that to happen.

WNYT Forecast Map.

We're still thinking a third or half of the schools of Berkshire Counties will have snow days on Monday. Pittsfield and Central Berkshire on north are looking pretty good. Schools south of Pittsfield might only get the delay. Southern Berkshire might have a full day of school, but we'll be rooting for them to have at least a delay.

The current track of the storm puts Northern Berkshire in the bull's eye for the highest snow totals from this event (in Massachusetts). But if the storm tracks slightly farther south, then Southern Berkshire snow totals should go up. The models did show today a slight jog to the south, so the trend is encouraging for the entire county.

More updates tomorrow!

Storm 1 Makes Way For Storm 2 On Monday

We got the snow today. We just didn't get the snow day. Or the delay, for that matter.

The timing killed us this morning. It started about 90 minutes too late. On the ride to the GSD Outpost in Williamstown this morning, we observed light flakes at 6:30 AM. By 7:00 it was coming down hard, and that made for a brutal morning commute. 

Supers were in a really tight spot. They were a little gun-shy from the last storm, and they decided to let the buses roll (except for Richmond). Despite the rough ride in to school, the decision to go with the whole day of school and not send students home early was the right one as the roads were only wet (in Williamstown) as temps had risen into the mid-30s.

But the great news is that the GSD Staff is optimistic about a plowable snow even for Monday. If the models are right--both are starting to come into agreement, a good sign--we could easily see 6 inches of snow with excellent timing for Monday.

Image courtesy of The Weather Channel. Loving that purple.

We are pleased with the initial maps we're seeing, and opposed to today's storm, there's much more optimism in the air in the GSD Office. The track of the storm is still very much uncertain, so warm air could creep into the picture and turn this storm into the bust, but let's just wait and see what info we can gather in the next few days and see where we are by Sunday morning. This will be a fast-moving storm--which is not ideal--but delays seem almost certain and full snow days should happen for some in the County.

NWS Albany.

Delays for Friday, January 20

Precipitation is beginning to pick up again--right on time. The morning commute will be a slow one. Here's what we're seeing for delays so far (last update: 12:45 PM):

SNOW DAY:

Richmond

January 19/20 Storm Update

The snow has started falling in Berkshire County (12:30 PM), and several schools in the region have cancelled afternoon and evening activities. Phase one of this stretched out event has begun on schedule.

Whatever snow falls today will not impact tomorrow morning's commute. We'll see a gradual changeover to mixed precipitation and rain and drizzle, with the precipitation ending for a few hours after midnight.

All eyes will then be on phase two of the storm, the coastal low. A few of the latest runs of the model are not great news for those in desperate need of a snow day tomorrow. The storm could track more to the north, which would push warmer air higher up into our region. This is not what we want to see happen.

NWS Albany forecast from this morning.

But the key to everyone's fate tomorrow will be the start of the second round of snow. It is still on track to begin anew around 6 AM. Will that be too late? Usually, we like it if snow is falling between 5 AM and 6 AM. 

Maps are still favoring Northern Berkshire over Southern Berkshire in terms of snow quantity. Right now we think the high end will be around 4" in the northwest quadrant and 1" in South County along the CT border.

So, we're still on board for many delays tomorrow morning and a few snow days for students in the northeastern portion of the county. Drive safely this evening and tomorrow morning!

Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday and Friday, January 19-20

Things are trending in the right direction for possible delays and even a few full snow days for Friday. The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire, with the potential for 2" to 6" of snow.

Higher terrains in the northeast corner of the county are the more likely recipients of 6" of snow. The west side down to Pittsfield and Lee will probably see 2".

Don't forget this map is showing the snow potential for a 36-hour period.

The problem with this storm is it's really a two-parter. The first system will come in tomorrow and give us an inch or so of snow in the afternoon then transition to rain or freezing rain for the evening. Then there will be a lull. Eventually, the second system will amplify during the first half of the day on Friday. The Friday morning commute could be a messy one because the snow should be picking back up in intensity between 7 and 9 AM. This will be a tough call for Superintendents for two reasons: 1) the slightly late timing and 2) that our last snow day was mostly a bust. Superintendents don't want go for 0 for 2.

Speaking of Superintendents, another pressure they may be under is the spike in Covid cases recently. A day off Friday and then potentially another one on Monday (see the last post) could provide a nice long weekend to slow down the spread. This is a speculative and hopeful theory, and it's mostly a wishful projection.

Thanks to WNYT Channel 13 for the map. This looks about right.

So, in terms of the Confidence Meter, we're not super optimistic about widespread snow day decisions. The usual suspects up there in Elementary School Row (Clarksburg, Abbott, Miller) in the northwest corner are likely to have delays or snow days. Hoosac Valley, Mount Greylock, North Adams, McCann, BART are all candidates as well for delays and the rogue snow day call. Central Berkshire also has a shot at a delay. We think from Pittsfield on south the chances will be slimmer.

Maybe we'll luck out and get an over-performer. But right now we think most students in the county will have a partial or full day.

Snow x3

Signs of life from Old Man Winter. 

The GSD Staff now has its collective eye on not one, not two, but three separate chances for measurable snow in the next 10 days.

Up first is a complicated weather system for Thursday evening and Friday (all day), and the Friday's commute could be impacted. Mixed precipitation is possible from I-90 north starting Thursday afternoon and evening, and then we could see steadier light snow in Northern Berkshire county throughout the day on Friday. There's not a ton of moisture with this two-phase storm, but models are showing anywhere from 1" and as much as 4-5". Delays for schools in the northern half of the county are possible.

The North American model for this Friday's messy storm. Timing is everything.

On deck is another storm for Monday. This one will approach from the Ohio Valley. The question will again be: will there be enough cold air in place for an all-snow event? Right now the Euro model says yes and the North American model says hold your horses. If it does pan out, we could see 6 inches throughout the county Sunday night into Monday. 

The Euro project for snow Sunday night/Monday.

In the hole is storm #3. This one is expected to impact New England Thursday night into Friday (the 27th). This storm looks like a more traditional nor'easter. Currently the Euro and North American models are in better agreement, but both models are favoring a heavy snow event for coastal New England. We would still get snow, but we'd be in a 3-6" band not the 12-18" band that Boston might get.

The Euro for Friday, Jan. 27th. This map will surely change and totals will come down or the storm will shift east out over the ocean.

In terms of confidence, we're hopeful but not overly optimistic about this Friday. We are definitely keen to learn more about Sunday night's storm, and no one really knows what's going to happen next Friday so we're not going to waste any energy on that one just yet.

We're just happy the conversation is turning toward storms and potential snow days. There will be plenty to talk about over the next ten days, and we look forward to bringing you the latest developments.

Snowhere To Be Seen

Up at the GSD Home Office on Thursday, we had a pleasant several hours of light snow. We picked up almost an inch, and it actually looked like winter for a few minutes there. 

But then--as has happened for the last four weeks--the warm air swooped right in we were back up in the high 40s for Friday.

You need two things for snow: precipitation and cold air. We have not suffered from the former, but you know what has been the situation with the latter.

Lots of people have been asking us, why we haven't had snow? There are, of course, many reasons but the simplest answer is the jet stream. When we get in a really robust snow storm pattern, the jet stream is a giant U that starts up in the northwest, hooks down into the southeast, then comes back up the east coast. When we see that shape, energy systems will form along stream, especially in the southeast part of the U, and strength as they move up the coast.

Notice the trough created here that stretches all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture needed for a big nor'easter gets picked up there then intensifies as it moves up the coast. Image courtesy of The Weather Channel

Our problem is the that we're not getting many deep troughs lately. Here's the jet stream from yesterday, which has been typical for the past several weeks:

A very flat U-shape to the jet stream = warm air for the Berkshires. Image courtesy of Weather Underground.

You can see that it is relatively flat, which mean cold air is not getting drawn into the trough and setting itself up over the northeast. And we'll state the obvious one more time: you need cold air for snow.

So that, in a nutshell, is why we've not had any snow storms in 2023. 

The experts keep saying that the pattern will change, and we could very easily have a snowy late January and February. And, yes, we are seeing some signs of a better colder pattern starting around the 25th. Also, here's something to keep your hope alive:

In the winter of 2015, Boston had accumulated a mere 10.6" of snow as of January 25. But then on January 26th it started to snow. And it didn't stop. Four storms in about a four-week period resulted in a seasonal total of record 110" of snow. 

So on those days when you are ready to give up and think it will never snow again, remember the winter of 2015.

Happy New Year--When's It Going To Snow?

As much as we'd like to sugarcoat the current (warm) situation in the Berkshires and keep your winter spirits up, there's no getting around the grim 10-day forecast.

The warm and wet trend will continue midweek, but we will see cooling temps as we near the weekend.

There is a slight chance for ice in Northern Berkshire county--especially in high elevations--for late Wednesday and early Thursday morning. A very small chance for delays exists for that day for select schools.

The next slim chance for snow could be Sunday night. There are several storms queued up and ready to head east, but the track of these storms--Friday through early next week--is very uncertain. The models are not very encouraging. We are keeping on eye on the possible Sunday evening event, but it's a long shot.

The North American model prediction for Sunday afternoon. Not much happening in New England.